It’s a Good News/Bad News Day

The good news is that the Mubarak regime in Egypt is all but gone. The bad news is that M$ and Nokia are going to push Phoney7. I see this as bad news because it will be a millstone around Nokia’s neck. For a short time they will prosper from the deal but Android and WebOS will kick butt and Nokia is limiting its longterm share. I see this as bad news in that M$ can claim for a year or two longer to be relevant in IT. Nokia has a huge market and to toss it to M$ is short-sighted. Those locked-in to Nokia will now be locked-in to M$. I have rarely seen any partner of M$ do well. They often get squeezed or put out of business.

It will take a year or so to judge the results of this alignment but I do not see the dynamic, open and low-cost platform of Android/Linux on ARM losing to M$’s stuff. I see Nokia losing major share. I hope they got enough money to sell their reputation.

UPDATE Here’s SJVN’s take on this: “too little, too late”. Amen.

UPDATE There’s some news about the walkout by 1000 employees at Nokia who may be axed… Google wants them!
“Any Nokia software engineers need a job? We’re hiring: www.google.jobs”

Sigh. A better URL:http://www.google.com/intl/en/jobs/

UPDATE
TheRegister has some more insights.

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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32 Responses to It’s a Good News/Bad News Day

  1. lpbbear says:

    “You probably shouldn’t generalize Windows fans. Perhaps they had a bad experience using Linux, and MacOS.”

    I wasn’t generalizing about Windows fans. I couldn’t care less if someone wants to be a fan of Microsoft’s products. I was referring to the idiots who act as shills for Microsoft who spend their time infesting Linux sites and articles with their silly crap.

    As a Linux “fan” I spend zero time on Windows sites. Not sure what compels these MS shills to bother even stopping here and elsewhere related to Linux.

    Perhaps a money incentive would compel me to invade their sites? 😉

  2. Ray says:

    “In truth most Microsoft shills and supporters are arrogant losers waiting for their paychecks while kissing the patooties of wealthy unscrupulous megalomaniacs who think they have the right to rule the world simply because they are wealthy.”

    You probably shouldn’t generalize Windows fans. Perhaps they had a bad experience using Linux, and MacOS.

  3. Ray says:

    “I used my response to stay on message. I’m sure some shill will bounce back in here with more garbage. That is how they work and what they produce.”

    That’s still a response, either way.

  4. lpbbear says:

    “lpbbear, is 2/14 your “Forever Alone” day.”

    Yet another common shill tactic. Insinuating that Linux/Open Source advocates are lonely, have no girl friends, naive anti social geeks living in their Mother’s basement, ranting and “raging” in a lunatic fashion in blogs on the Internet, blah blah blah blah. Same old horsecrap. Nothing changes with Microsoft and its cronies.

    In truth most Microsoft shills and supporters are arrogant losers waiting for their paychecks while kissing the patooties of wealthy unscrupulous megalomaniacs who think they have the right to rule the world simply because they are wealthy.

  5. nightgoblin says:

    I brought up Belluzzo because of a) he is the most famous MS mole, b) Elop’s current position is almost identical. He seems to be a major shareholder in Microsoft (7th, according to this article: http://www.kauppalehti.fi/5/i/talous/uutiset/etusivu/uutinen.jsp?oid=20110260319)

  6. Zombie Chan says:

    lpbbear, is 2/14 your “Forever Alone” day.

  7. lpbbear says:

    “Umm… lpbear, you just responded.”

    Ummmm….no….I didn’t. Shills want you to waste time responding to their pointless redirect drivel. You then waste your time refuting their so called “points” much like Microsoft spends millions of dollars on manufacturing issues to force Open Source and Linux companies and advocates to engineer around. The author of that garbage made no “points” nor was it worth the effort to refute obvious falsehoods.

    I used my response to stay on message. I’m sure some shill will bounce back in here with more garbage. That is how they work and what they produce.

  8. Ray says:

    “The rest of your tiny little rant isn’t worth the effort to respond to. You are following the same pattern all MS apologists follow. ”

    Umm… lpbear, you just responded.

  9. lpbbear says:

    “You totally forget the fact that many of these companies that ventured with Linux did it only because they were on the brink of destruction anyway. Linux was the last ditch effort that failed.”

    And YOU (and your handlers) would like us totally forget how most of those companies got on the “brink of destruction” in the first place which was by trying to co-exist in a marketplace dominated and controlled by one company with an obscene monopoly. Most of the companies I listed had some very good products some of which were Windows based. If the Linux efforts of these companies was no more than, as YOU (and your handlers) put it, a “last ditch effort” why then did Microsoft find it so important to spend vast amounts of money and effort in trying to finish off these companies. Were they simply doing them a favor perhaps? If they were, again, as YOU (and your handlers) put it, on the “brink of destruction” wouldn’t those companies and their Linux efforts eventually simply fallen over all by themselves without any effort or cost to Microsoft?

    The rest of your tiny little rant isn’t worth the effort to respond to. You are following the same pattern all MS apologists follow. Use a nickname that tries to paint all others a “loons”, ignore the facts, try to color and redirect the facts in another direction. You’re a shill.

    The fact is Microsoft finds it necessary to prop up its illegal monopoly and horrible products not by engaging in direct competition in the marketplace with its competitors. Rather, it finds it has to use backroom politics and manipulation of other companies to keep them from gaining enough traction to compete directly with Microsoft in the marketplace. Wouldn’t it be just awful….for Microsoft….if the consumer actually had a choice of competitors products? Wouldn’t it be even more awful……for Microsoft….if consumers found some of those products turned out to be even better than Microsoft’s? How truly awful that would be….for Microsoft…and how truly wonderful it would be for the average consumer, the economy, the environment, and the rapid advancement of technology.

    Instead we have a single company locking up choice and engaging in nasty tricks with the only goal to artificially increase its perceived marketshare. Take over Yahoo and, as YOU (and your handlers) said, make it “Microsoft’s bitch” to artificially inflate the numbers of the piece of crap known as “Bing”. Take over Nokia to artificially increase the numbers of the piece of ludacris garbage known as Windows Phone7. Far be it from me to expect that Microsoft would actually compete in the marketplace like all those other so called “on the brink of destruction” companies that dare to have the audacity to compete with Microsoft. Shame on me!

    You know what I find odd? That I have yet to see obvious shills showing up on the net from THOSE companies. Apparently those companies are too busy producing actual quality products rather than spending their time and money trying to put others out of business or paying morons to post garbage around the Internet. What an “innovative” concept!

  10. The enemy of my enemy is my friend. Business is risky. Nokia seems to be willing to take a huge risk that they can make Phoney7 work when Android is selling like hot cakes. It’s like a gambler who cannot pay his mortgage getting a second mortgage and going all-in at Vegas.

  11. Alex says:

    http://www.engadget.com/2011/02/13/nokia-our-first-priority-is-beating-android/

    I guess Microsoft is just using Nokia to fight android, and will loot the dead body of Nokia as soon as it’s crushed, in convulsions, helpless, on the floor…

    Typical Microsoft. Smart move, they risk nothing by throwing a weakened competitor against the stronger one.

    RIP Nokia, it’s been great knowing you.

  12. Not a loon says:

    By the way, about Beluzzo: How is that related to Linux in any way?

    Remember: GNU’s not UNIX!

    The worst foes for SGI were NT AND cheap Linux boxes. Even Red Hat is saying that migrations from Unix to Linux are far more often than Window to Linux. Linux had alot to do with the Demise of UNIX, now blaming it on all Microsoft is cheap.

    “Direct buyouts (RAV Software), buying up stock and tanking it (Corel), planted moles (Yahoo, Corel, Nokia, SGI etc.), proxy funded lawsuits (SCO), patent threatening into partnerships (Novell, Xandros etc)”

    Wow, buyouts, how evil.

    Yahoo and Corel? As I said, Corel was on the way of the dodo, and Linux was a last ditch effort. Now Yahoo! – ever heard about Google?!

    Yahoo has an marginal market share. Microsoft was willing to pay an insane (literally in my opinion) price for it in 2008. Yang didn’t accept because he was more insane than Ballmer at the moment. And he rightfully was booted out of the company for it.

    Yes, Yahoo is now Microsoft’s bitch, but only because it was beaten right and left by Google and couldn’t compete anyway. I don’t get it how MS is at fault for Yahoo’s demise here.

    Novell was on life support. Same story basically.

    Nokia – haven’t you witnessed the sharp decline of market share in the past years? What has MS to do with Nokia’s failures?

    Your list is more like a list of failed companies that Microsoft bought out later. HOW EVIIILL!!

    Besides, you’re forgetting the companies that are thriving because they had deals with MS – take Apple. Without the bailout, it could be very well dead. Or Dell. Looks like they’re far more happy selling Windows 7 than Ubuntu.

  13. Not a loon says:

    You totally forget the fact that many of these companies that ventured with Linux did it only because they were on the brink of destruction anyway. Linux was the last ditch effort that failed.

    Yea, Corel Linux would totally fly, right.. Just like Red Hat on consumer desktops did. And SCO (Caldera) was in the reds before they started the lawsuits. That was the last ditch effort to raise money.

    It’s also funny that the same people who attest to Microsoft such brilliance at (underhanded) business tactics always doom the company to “one more year, tops”.

    LOL, that doesn’t compute.

  14. It is a great strength of FLOSS that we out-number them. Even if Ubuntu or Google or RedHat sold out, the anthill would just swarm to fill the gap. FLOSS licensing is key to this defence of freedom. We can have 300 distros and keep functions. The monopoly, of course, fails with just one other stiff competitor and is toast in the diverse world of FLOSS. One thing that has changed on top of this great flexibility is that Linux runs on more than a dozen architectures and several compete well with Intel: ARM, Sparc, and the x86 clones including 486-like stuff still being produced at up to 1gHz clockspeeds.

    Now, the monopoly still rakes in lots of cash even at 85% share of units shipped, but the bottom will fall out of that this year as more people get smart-thingies and the smart-thingies get more USB connectors. In a short while we could live in a world where everyone has a smart-thingie in their pocket and even if they go to an office they just plug it into some dock and compute. No need for an ATX box or that other OS at all. Even if M$ gets a ride on the smart-thingies it will be a 1/N share where N is bigger than 2 or 3.

  15. lpbbear says:

    “lpbbear, you forgot Richard Belluzzo, who killed two RISC processor architectures (PA-RISC, MIPS) and two UNIX-like OS-es (HP-UX, IRIX) while working as a highly positioned executive at SGI and HP”

    No, I didn’t actually. That and many others weren’t mentioned due to how long it would take to list all of the similar instances. Thank you for mentioning it though.

    The real crux of the issue is that it should be now clear that Microsoft is engaged in a long term campaign to attack Linux by attacking and eliminating, through anti-competitive monopolistic tactics, any high profile Linux oriented company or associated technology that looks like it might be in position to be or become a threat to its desktop monopoly.

    They are “cherry picking” every high profile Linux/Open Source company or effort and attacking them using several different methods. Direct buyouts (RAV Software), buying up stock and tanking it (Corel), planted moles (Yahoo, Corel, Nokia, SGI etc.), proxy funded lawsuits (SCO), patent threatening into partnerships (Novell, Xandros etc) and other dirty backroom sleazeball tactics used against other companies I am sure. Feel free to list them.

    They are not (yet) targeting smaller Linux players. For instance smaller distributions like “PCLinuxOS” and others without a current larger potential for threatening to make inroads into the desktop market Microsoft thinks it “owns” are being ignored….for the time being.

    There are a few large Linux players that are simply too strong for the approaches mentioned above..at this time…. so Microsoft is quietly eroding them around the edges by threatening the potential “partners” of those companies and engaging in “partnerships” themselves with those companies partners. (Google/HTC)

    As a side note don’t assume some promising new technology like….oh….lets say…..ARM for example will be somehow overlooked in this process. No, I’m quite sure there are plans laid or being acted on by Microsoft to derail this also.

    While I am sure Linux and Open Source will continue to “engineer” forward around many of these threats Microsoft is working at three levels with their endgame in this campaign.

    1. Directly kill the company. It has succeeded several times already.

    2. If they can’t “kill” the company directly make enough problems for the company or technology that it slows down or derails whatever product or technology the company or effort produces that might raise the profile of Linux as a commercial choice among consumers.

    3. Keep Linux and Open Source companies and efforts focused on wasting their time “engineering” around the manufactured issues being caused by the tactics Microsoft is employing in numbers 1 and 2 rather than actually attacking the core of the problem…..Microsoft.

    In 2000 the US DOJ was right at the verge of breaking up this rotten to the core corporation. At the very moment of Microsoft’s destruction a corporate friendly administration swept into power in the US Congress and White House. That administration immediately pulled the plug on the breakup of Microsoft and softened the sanctions Microsoft should have suffered as a result of the DOJ settlement. That same bunch of corporate “friendly” (cough cough) goons is setting up a scenario for taking over the US Congress and White House in a couple years.

    Some like to claim that the results of the DOJ trial “changed” Microsoft into less of a corporate “bully”. I’m not buying that. Everything listed above happened AFTER 2000 and during the period of the imposed DOJ sanctions. Microsoft has NOT changed one bit. The company that the US DOJ was threatening to breakup for its dirty deeds in the 80’s and 90’s is the SAME company that should be broken up for its dirty deeds in the 00’s and 10’s. Think about it folks. That FOUR DECADES OF THIS CRAP!

    So while we well meaning Linux and Open Source advocates run around wasting our time “engineering” around manufactured roadblocks the elephant in the room continues, to THIS day, getting away with corporate murder. I would suggest its about time we well meaning, but somewhat naive, Linux and Open Source advocates got our political act together and began organizing and pushing for the extermination of this monster if not for our own sakes but the sake of the advancement of mankind. Until we all push for its extermination in each of our respective countries and jurisdictions the “elephant” will continue trampling all underfoot.

    The only solution to this issue is to go directly to the problem and kill the company itself by all legal means available. Otherwise its going to be more decades of the same old same old.

  16. Dan Serban says:

    NOK-KIN on failure’s door, this corporate marriage is.
    Turned to the Darth side of the source Nokia have.

  17. Ray says:

    And shame on IBM for selling it’s personal computer line, leaving out it’s uniqueness out of it.

  18. Ray says:

    “If Lenvo “went with” Windows 7, wouldn’t it become yet another manufacturer? Talk your way out of that double standard. I’m sure you will.”

    Yes, it would.

  19. The only thing certain about M$’s behaviour is that they will do anything but compete on price and performance if they can get away with it.

  20. oe says:

    Excellent analysis by lpbbear, MS is like a metastatic cancer tumor, just spreading away and killing hosts left and right.

  21. nightgoblin says:

    lpbbear, you forgot Richard Belluzzo, who killed two RISC processor architectures (PA-RISC, MIPS) and two UNIX-like OS-es (HP-UX, IRIX) while working as a highly positioned executive at SGI and HP: http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=belluzzo

  22. Nokia is a good company with good people, products and ideas. They can produce decent products with any OS but they will have a hard time competing only on price. If they go with Android they can still control the quality of their hardware and the configuration of the software making themselves different from other manufacturers. It seems Nokia intends to cut a bunch of employees adrift out-sourcing some work to M$ essentially. What will Nokia do when M$ cancels the programme like they did with Kin? Depending on M$ for anything is a serious risk when it is outside of their cash cow line.

  23. Richard Chapman says:

    “if Nokia went with Android, it would just become yet another manufacturer,”

    If Lenvo “went with” Windows 7, wouldn’t it become yet another manufacturer? Talk your way out of that double standard. I’m sure you will.

  24. ray says:

    let’s see what comes out of this.

  25. lpbbear says:

    I think you’re all missing a bigger picture here and perhaps forgetting past history. This is no different than many other Microsoft partnerships from the past. The goal here isn’t to increase market share and release new products in conjunction with the so called partner. (Remember Microsoft already has obscenely MASSIVE market share) The goal here is to weaken and eventually kill the partner and underneath attack Linux, its ONLY potential competitor, in some way or another just like it has been in numerous other instances for several years.

    For instance

    1. Corel. Microsoft bought into Corel stock and eventually, with the help of a “mole” (Derek Burney) tanked Corel and ALL of its Linux efforts and products. Burney later worked for Microsoft in the Sharepoint division.

    2. Xandros, Microsoft threatened lawsuits, later “settled” for an undisclosed amount that was paid to Xandros and became a “partner” Funny how the so called “settlement ended up paying the company accused of infringement. Anyway Xandros ceased working on their Linux desktop product as a result and are no where as a company these days. Xandros also bought out Linspire and it and afterward all of its Linux based products also faded away quietly.

    3. Yahoo, another mole and the same old partnership routine. Yahoo is now pretty much YaBingHoo.

    4. Novell, Similar to Xandros, threatened with patent lawsuits, partners with Microsoft, falls apart later, ends up selling its assets including those oh so interesting patents, some of which are involved in the SCO “We Own Linux” lawsuit, to a Microsoft backed consortium. Hmmmmmm. Wonder where that might be going……
    Novell also ends up buying Ximian and eventually its former owner/CEO/whatever turns out to be the main force behind polluting Gnome with the Microsoft based .NET “Mono” with Gnome being one of the 2 main crown jewels in the field of Linux desktop window managers. More on the other farther down.

    5. SCO (Caldera), Originally a Linux friendly company, some kind of shakeup and the moron put in charge turns out to be VERY Microsoft friendly and not only does he trash all of their Linux efforts, he also declares SCO is the sole rightful owner to Linux and everyone in the world owes SCO for daring to use Linux. Yet another dead company who partnered with Microsoft.

    There have been several other companies, all somehow involved in Linux killed in similar fashion.

    Ok, so now were looking at Nokia and on the surface its all about smart phones, kissing babies, shaking hands, smile pretty for the camera, blah blah blah.

    Underneath the real crown jewel is……….KDE….or QT actually.

    Microsoft may say out of one side of its lying smiling face that it is about smart phones but really??? Really, out of the other side of its sneering evil corporate bully face…its about killing KDE and affecting desktop Linux by killing QT.

    Sure sure. I’m just being paranoid. Nothing like this has EVER happened in the past. Of course there is absolutely NO pattern here at all. All my imagination.

    “Microsoft, innovating away competitors one dirty trick at a time! Its our motto!”

  26. oldman says:

    “appears to have ignored that Phoney 7 is going very slowly. They must have got a ton of money up front, like a prostitute.”

    It may be the case that Microsoft is to late to the fray to bring an impact with windows phone 7. However I would not count them out just yet.

    I have had the opportunity to work with a Windows Phone 7 phone. Unlike Android which is a blatant ripoff of the iOS interface, Windows phone 7 actually manages to look new. It seems to me that there is some validity to Rays point about windows phone 7 based nokia smartphone being a possible differentiators for Nokia in a competitive market.

    Only time will tell.

  27. With Android, Nokia can combine its sales channels, great hardware, brand recognition to compete well with everyone else in the Android/Linux smartphone market. They lost 20% share with what they had. They have a better shot at getting it back by competing with Android suppliers on hardware and service than with a monopoly only intent on taxing Nokia. Nokia’s guy did say they thought Google was going to take too big a share of services on the web/phone but they will pay licensing fees to M$ and M$ will make a ton of money on Live stuff. Nokia appears to have ignored that Phoney 7 is going very slowly. They must have got a ton of money up front, like a prostitute.

  28. Ray says:

    Wait, you also have to consider the alternatives, if Nokia went with Android, it would just become yet another manufacturer, losing what’s unique about it. If it stuck with Meego/Symbian, it’ll become irrelevant. Lastly, I doubt that HP would license webOS to Nokia.

  29. Good comment. Thanks for the insight. I think Nokia must have valued some short-term cash over long-term business interests. Why does history keep repeating itself?

  30. Wow! That sounds like the top dog is out of touch with the market and his employees. He’s a former M$ guy, perhaps a mole

  31. Bender says:

    I’ve seen talk on Bloomberg with Elop and Ballmer and one of the questions was “what investors don’t like about that deal” (something like that) and the only response they got was a mambo jumbo from elop completely omitting the question, in fact, most of the answers were like that. I see that deal as a good thing, two behemots unable to move with the rest of the world will perish into the oblivion forgotten and broken. Sadly Microsoft got nothing to lose in that deal, it is Nokia that has much to lose and it WILL lose betting on the wrong Phoney 7 horse…

    HP chose WebOS because they know they didn’t get much working with Microsoft. HP finds it better to risk much of their business and bet on their own horse than to go with Microsoft? Then Microsoft must be worse like cancer for them…

  32. Matias says:

    Here in Finland propably majority of people are seriously talking about the end of Nokia and many of uss were actually mentally ready for these news. I’ve just checked what has been the answer from markets – share of Nokia down about 14-15%. Over a thousand Nokia employees walk out in protest in Tampere, Finland.

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