2011 Will Be Big, Very Big

Industries supplying IT are shivering with excitement.

  • TSMC is cranking up production and planning 18 inch wafers and 20 nm. ARMed chips have been huge and may increase 8-fold in sub-$150 smart phones running Android GNU/Linux.
  • tablets could ship 42 million units in 2011, about 10% of PCs
  • AMD is finally producing a modern low-powered CPU although still with x86 architecture
  • all types of PC shipments are growing although some formats are slower than others.
  • China, alone, is changing from a producing to a consuming nation providing a ready market for Chinese producers.
  • Thin clients are growing rapidly in shipments after the bitter consolidations of a few years back.


In all of that chaotic energy, GNU/Linux has plenty of room to grow. Every part of the food-chain is looking at every angle to increase share and to grow faster. GNU/Linux could have 100%+ growth. Phoney “7” is not going anywhere and “8” is not in sight so ARM+GNU/Linux will have a vacuum in which to install. The delay in 2010 waiting for tablet-features in Android/Linux is over. Tablet production alone will provide more growth in IT markets than the rest of PCs and Android alone could equal that.

By the end of 2011 everything will have changed. ARM will be on more diverse personal computing devices. GNU/Linux will be on more diverse personal computing devices and both will likely move into traditional Wintel territory. There’s nothing Wintel can do to stop the flood. It goes around every barrier because it is so wide in range of computing devices, global regions and kinds of end-users. Consumers are taking gadgets to work and to school. Retailers are seeing there’s money to be made selling GNU/linux, at last. OEMs are seeing increasing profit margins and volume. M$ and Intel and AMD and VIA are diversifying as fast as they can to avoid crashing. Only Wintel sees no silver lining.

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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One Response to 2011 Will Be Big, Very Big

  1. ray says:

    ohhh…. Ps phone vs windows phone 7…. I wonder who’ll win 😉

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