Digitimes reports Compal expects:
“Demand for tablet PCs will grow quarterly at the expense of conventional notebooks through 2011, Chen said, adding global tablet PC sales in 2011 will reach 60 million units, 70-75% of which will be iPads. Of the Compal-produced tablet PCs in 2011, 90% will be ARM-based, Chen noted.
Processors account for the largest portion of the production costs for desktops and notebooks, followed by operating systems and LCD panels, Chen indicated. But for tablet PCs, touch panels may be the most expensive component, Chen said.”
If that prediction holds true then 15 million non-iPad tablets will be made in 2011 and perhaps 13 million of those will be ARMed and likely running Android/Linux, about 3% of all PCs expected in 2011. I would be surprised if consumers don’t prefer the lower price of ARMed phones with Android and Android could grow some share above those predictions. iPads start at about $500 and Android phones start at about $100. I cannot see iPad taking 75% of the market with those price differences and manufacturers could easily double their shipments of Android in 2011.
I would not be surprised to see some millions of ARMed PCs of other kinds in 2011 with that kind of volume in tablets. Apple will not likely want to cannibalize sales of Macs, but others are more aggressive. Since volume of notebooks and desktops are so much greater than smartphones, there is a huge opportunity for makers of PCs, particularly with all-in-one machines, netbooks and notebooks. ARM makes a lot of sense there. ARM could have about $100 price advantage in the normal PC market and take a large share. We shall enjoy watching.