Predictions That Will Fail in 2011

Channel insider is predicting the downfall of XP in the enterprise in 2011. They must not realize that “7” is only replacing a small part of the XP universe. The increase in “7” share is less than the total decrease in Vista and “7”. Many will cling to XP in business until the dust-bunnies clog the coolers. At the present rate of decline, XP will be around many years. Do you know any business that wants to replace all of its PCs and most of its printers in 2011? … I thought not.

They also claim Android smart-phones will be a flop in business. It’s the apps folks. If people have a Java app they need or can work over the network, Android is as good or better than other platforms. If they like longer battery-life, Android on ARM will be a winner in business as well as with consumers. Considering that many ISPs are distributing Android at huge discounts, many businesses will see its utility for road-warriors. “7” certainly doesn’t fit.

They also dump on Google-Docs. Considering that large deployments are happening in government and business and they work and are secure, there is no basis to predict a flop. In fact, M$, the other competitor in the field has only succeeded where they have locked out Google somehow. Google will fight and do well. Office Web Apps are predicted to flop. I don’t see how they are not inevitable. People are sick of having to deal with documents, storage, and backup. They will be glad to hire someone to take care of things. The only doubt I have is how the share will develop. M$ has a history of cheating in the market. I expect them to try everything they can to exclude Google and others. It won’t work but M$ won’t fail. They just won’t get a monopoly. Great.

They are predicting the failure of Chrome OS in the business market at the same time businesses are moving to thin-client desktops. Twits. The moves are quite complementary. Networks are strong enough to run businesses over them. Chrome OS will be great for private and public clouds and even local web applications. Ellisons’s prediction will finally come true. Network computing is happening and 2011 will be the explosion.

The Channel Insider seems not to think outside the box they are in. Things change in IT and 2011 will have lots of changes some good and some bad. About half of their predictions will fall flat in 2011, IMHO.

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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4 Responses to Predictions That Will Fail in 2011

  1. Ray says:

    No, I meant the development of Linux is evolutionary, it get’s better bit by bit.

  2. Bender says:

    I mostly agree, where i work they use xp, it works, does the job and there is no real need for upgrading to the latest and greatest, granted where i work is a pretty small company but i suspect that in larger companies happen exact same things, what works isn’y replaced until completely necessary. M$ shot themselves in foot extending xp’s support till 2014 because that’s how long businesses will keep using xp. Thank god that majority of M$’s income comes from businesses because the same businesses will slowly but surely weaken M$’s revenue stream and i believe that at 2013/2014 GNU/Linux will be a viable platform to change to instead of constant hardware and software upgrades to satisfy that other os requirements. And regarding malware i believe GNU/Linux is already prepared with selinux/apparmor/etc. , i fear not a bit about that, what i fear is a flood of mainstream (dumb) users along with their ignorance regarding security etc.

  3. GNU/Linux has been revolutionary. How else could so many businesses cooperate to produce smart-thingies and such a large project as Linux? The revolution is that businesses in competition with each other can do better if they cooperate in producing the product to reduce overhead. Ordinarily that only happens with small groups of companies. GNU/Linux has made it global.

  4. ray says:

    But unlike geeks, people in the enterprise wouldn’t just rush for the newest, greatest, stablest things. They tend to be slow with change, often taking years. Besides, a rush to Linux wouldn’t be a good thing. If they did, malware writers would finally turn their ugly heads to Linux. A slow growth of Linux is better than a fast one. Because Linux is an evolutionary OS, not a revolutionary OS.

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