5 Billion Smart-phones

That’s the market that Michael Dell is aiming at with KACE. They want to sell management systems for the software on smart-phones and Android will be prominent.
“He claimed there are five billion people on the planet currently in possession of cell phones and just a couple of hundred million smart phone users. In the next five to seven years, “almost all five billion will figure out they would like to have a smart phone too.””

Imagine that with 5 billion users of smart-thingies and a good share running Android. The monopoly will be over within 5 years. I like that.

Just as netbooks were good salesmen for GNU/Linux, so will be smart-thingies including phones. Android and other Linux OS will be prominent in that set and the brand will be out there. People will know there is an OS that is not from M$. M$ will compete with Phoney “7” but it could not even copy and paste when released so no one expects it to claw back the market like M$ did with netbooks. Netbooks, by the way, are still hanging in. Growth has slowed but IDC says they will be around for years yet. Still time for space on retail shelves for GNU/Linux.
“In response to the market shift caused by the introduction of the media tablet form factor this year, IDC expects the mini notebook category to continue growing but at a somewhat slower pace. Worldwide mini notebook shipments are forecast to be 37.8 million units in 2010, up 10.3% from 2009. Over the next four years, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the worldwide mini notebook market will be 4.3%, topping out at 42.4 million units shipped in 2014.

On a regional basis, Latin America, Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), and Middle East and Africa (MEA) represent the strongest potential markets for mini notebooks. The five year CAGR in these regions will hover near or above 20%, as many of the governments in these regions follow through on large educational initiatives to bring mini notelbooks into the classroom. In contrast, the market for mini notebooks in the United States will experience growth in the low single digits over the forecast period while the Western European market is expected to decline by 11% from 2009-2014.”

HP, No. 3 in netbooks, sells them head to head with M$’s stuff:
HP's choice of OS for Mini 5103

Expect GNU/Linux to march everywhere on smart-thingies and even into the desktop arena in 2011. By the time Ubuntu’s Unity/Wayland is mature the niche of desktop GNU/Linux will be a grand canyon with plenty of room for diversity in distro. Watch for smart-thingies bearing Linux in December. More are coming into production each month. While it looks like the main wave will hit in 2011 there should be a few good deals in 2010.

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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