Robert Pogson

“a collapse of oil supply to half of its current size within only six years simply cannot be compensated by new oil findings and certainly not by unconventional oil sources like oil sands and fracking. That the Oil Majors did not pick up with new oil exploration after the oil price rose again to $100 per barrel in the years after 2008 is another sign that the world is already “overexplored,” as geologists put it. Instead the Oil Majors concentrated on a stock buyback, knowing full well that further exploration would be a waste of money while they are sitting on oil that will become very valuable even though the amount of oil they will extract will decline significantly.”
 
See Peak Oil & Drastic Oil Shortages Imminent, Says IEAWhatever you may think of fossil fuel and electric vehicles (EVs), the price of fuel matters. It matters more than the sticker price of vehicles. It matters more than the range of EVs versus gas-guzzlers. It matters more than resistance to change. It matters because every week or two owners of gas-guzzlers have to pay at the pumps.

Data from the fossil-fuel industry show that the supply of easy oil has or will peak sooner rather than later. Meanwhile, USAians love pickup-trucks. There will be a collision of supply and demand for fossil fuels right around the corner. Those thinking short-term will buy oil-stocks and cash in. Those thinking long-term will buy EVs. Buying an EV is not just about saving the planet from global warming. It’s about an essential economic movement in mindshare. If you do the maths you will see that EVs are competitive now, not next decade. Next decade they will be all but compulsory. Cut supply of fossil fuel in half and try to maintain demand. I dare you.

Trump is thinking short-term. His sycophants are too. So are the lovers of pickups. USA and everyone else will be unwilling to pay exorbitant prices for fuel from now on. They will do the right thing and change the way cities are built to reduce the need for transportation and they will use EVs. It’s a necessity, not a choice. Efficiency is the dictator, not Trump.

Consider supply politically. Essentially, the sanctions against Russia and Iran mean that Saudi Arabia calls the tune. [SARCASM]It’s great to depend on that reliable ally, eh?[/SARCASM] Saudi Arabia has been supplying the West with fuel in a big way since the 1930s. They sit on the largest reserves. They could suffer a coup at any instant. They could be nuked by Iran real soon now if Trump has his way. He needs a “good war” to stay in power. Saudi Arabia is lead by a despot frantic to solidify power. He’s abducted an ambassador. He’s murdered a US-based journalist. He’s sanctioned Canada. He’s being sued in USA. He’s blockaded Qatr. He’s raining USAian bombs on Yemeni women and children. He’s dependant on Trump to stay in power. Can anyone count on Trump staying in power? Can anyone count on Saudi Arabia to keep the oil flowing? Nope.