Of course there are many more than two kinds of countries but these groups seem to do something different with GNU/Linux. Some with the larger shares have adopted and promoted GNU/Linux (Cuba, Venezuela,…)but so have some with the lower shares (Brazil, Russia, China…). That’s not the determining factor.
Let’s look at connectedness. St. Vincent and the Grenadines has ~100K population 73% connected to the web. It has very little business except agriculture. Uruguay has 3 million 56% connected with lots of businesses, high employment rate.
“There are roughly 58 million primary school students in Latin America, according to UNESCO’s latest data from their Education For All initiative. 5% of children in that age range are not in school. And 5% of them use XOs” Could that be it? Nope. Mexico, Argentina and Peru all have huge deployments of XOs.
I think it’s more likely the use of NATing firewalls that is the issue. Some consumers do their own NATing but that only covers a few machines. Schools, governments and businesses do a lot. Even some ISPs do it. Now, StatCounter claims to count page-views and nothing else, but what do they do if a bunch of identical GNU/Linux User-Agent strings come from a single IP-address requesting a single page 100 times a day?