I like IDC. They are an invaluable source of information about shipments of personal computers. I love PCs.“PCs include Desktop, Mini Notebook and other Portable PCs which possess non-detachable keyboards, and do not include handhelds or Tablets” One thing that’s pretty silly, however, is IDC clinging to the strange idea that a personal computer can’t be a tablet or smartphone. That warps whatever maths they do to make their estimates. What happens if 100 million people decide a tablet is a PC this year or next? What happens if 300 million people decide a smartphone is all they need?
The world looks quite different then. Clearly that should happen. Why has there been decline in IDC’s PC-worldview in 2012, 2013 and 2014 (forecast), but no further? That’s not realistic. There are reasons PCs of IDC’s kind have declined:
The small cheap personal computers are small and cheap. People love them. They are personal computers, IDC.
People are just tired of paying for what they don’t need: wasted material and space and licensing fees for M$. Smartphones can do everything most people need done with a computer, by far: HDMI, USB, browsing, messaging, voice and GPS… Hook up a keyboard, mouse and monitor if you need something bigger. There’s no need for a bigger, more expensive box. Nowadays, almost everything except the package is built into a single chip.
UPDATE In a fine example of one hand not knowing what the other is doing, IDC reported that the rate of growth of tablets shipments is slowing and shipments will be about 261 million in 2014. Surely, some percentage of tablets are replacing those clunky legacy PCs so there is continuing reason to believe growth of legacy PCs will be low or even negative for years to come and IDC knows it.