On Adoption Of EVs

“I believe that a significant percentage of consumers (especially late adopters and laggards in truck- and SUV-crazy USA) will expect EVs to have a range of 400–500 miles (the same as their ICE vehicles) before they will take the EV plunge.”
 
See 25 Factors That Will Affect EV Adoption (Part 1)
Electric vehicles (EVs) have recently returned to the market in a big way, first, as hybrid vehicles with an internal combustion engine (ICE) as the source of power and then as plugin-hybrids (PHEV) and battery-EVs (BEV). TFA quoted on the right raises some issues which will be resolved over the next few years to make EVs absolutely mainstream. There are some corners of the article which are erroneous, however.

There is a huge market for personal transportation in/near cities like where I live. People don’t live walking distances from where they work and they use public or private transportation to commute to and from work/school/shopping. Many millions of miles of personal transportation happen daily with only one occupant of a personal car/truck. This is tremendously wasteful of money/resources/infrastructure. There are places where this sort of waste is banned and public transportation is robust and does the job, mostly older cities with massive congestion. Those of us who live in/near cities which grew up in an age of personal transportation probably have government rules separating residential and commercial zones widely. We are stuck with the personal car until we rebuild cities which have taken a century to build.

Enter the Solo EV, my personal choice for personal transportation. I’m retired so I don’t commute but I love to be able to jump into the car and do a few errands: shopping, post office, medical doctor’s office, eye doctor’s office, dentist, hunting, fishing and gathering out in the forest, visiting family/friends, etc. Solo is small, easy to operate, has plenty of range for errands in a small to medium-sized city, is cheap to buy and cheap to operate. Unfortunately, it still hasn’t come to market in a big way. That’s happening this year as a Chinese factory gets into high gear but it will happen long before the decade or so wait that TFA suggests we endure before EVs become mainstream.

Solo has been certified to USAian standards and soon will be certified in Canada. Range is about 100 miles/161km, which will get me and millions of others to all the places we frequent. Price is under $20000 CDN. No oil-changes. Only three tires/wheels. 20kWh means the battery is cheap and affordable today, not in a decade. The great efficiency is achieved by carrying much less weight and pushing aside much less air. It’s a solution to the problem of personal commuting and massive adoption of EVs. Charging problem? Plug it in at home and you are good for the day. Expect imitators to flood the market long before a decade is up.

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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30 Responses to On Adoption Of EVs

  1. DrLoser says:

    I noaticed that, when I KOed 10 of the points (to be generous) in your pathetic original cite, Robert, that you had no answers. But wait, what’s this? An answer?

    Having to fill up along the road or during a commute is never convenient.

    Which is why nobody ever does it, Robert. Try again.

    For the greater certainty, I still have a smartphone but I don’t know where it is.

    Yes. Well. Um.

  2. An Out Of Phase Transistor says:

    Ah, so you actually admit it is a completely unfriendly way of doing things, good to know Robert.

    Or, as normal people say it: “I don’t want my car to act as my phone, FFS!”

  3. DrLoser wrote, ” In what possible parallel universe is “charging“ a consumer-friendly advantage for EVs?”

    Uh, my universe where people drive home and plug in their car and it’s ready to go the next morning without visiting a fuelling station along the road, making payments per filling, being exposed to fire-hazard and fumes from exhaust and the stinking fuel itself. When I had my smartphone, I plugged it in whenever convenient for me. Having to fill up along the road or during a commute is never convenient. For the greater certainty, I still have a smartphone but I don’t know where it is. The grandson got his hands on it, scooted off everywhere and came back without the gadget. Haven’t seen it for days… I’d charge it if I could…

  4. An Out Of Phase Transistor says:

    DrLoser, reminds me (well, you actually, Robert) of the core principle of the journey we are about to embark upon:

    Huge cost with no obvious individual benefit

    Now, remind me again, which field are we talking about here?

    Is it really EV (as such), eh, Robert?

  5. DrLoser says:

    Range. Price. Charging. There, that’s three.

    Excellent! We now have thre (out of thirteen in TFA) points to discuss! Of course, these points weren’t covered positively in TFA, but let’s pass that by.

    1) Range? Insufficient. As pointed out by TFA.
    2) Price? Not really mentioned in TFA, for some reason. Don’t know why. Huge cost with no obvious individual benefit, perhaps?
    3) Charging?

    Charging?

    You’ve got a lot of gumption there, I’ll give you that, Robert. In what possible parallel universe is “charging“ a consumer-friendly advantage for EVs? Not to mention that TFA totally crapped on the concept.

  6. An Out Of Phase Transistor says:

    But you don’t need a car for those “few miles” Robert (a bike – literally – will do, or, in the case of the elderly, a bus).

    As has been explained to you before, your proposed solution gives you every problem of car ownership (cost, pollution, etc.) with no actual gains, as your oh-so-desired tricycle does not actually function as a car it just costs as much as one.

    I also take notice that neither you, nor your pet Hamster managed to spend any time on the question I have proposed for you to solve.

    Let me remind you that answering it shows the entire “EV field” in an entirely different light.

    Shall I give you a day or two more to dwell on the issue?

  7. DrLoser wrote, “No you don’t. No you haven’t. Try again and pick one of TFA’s thirteen points to address.”

    Range. Price. Charging. There, that’s three. None of them matter for the majority of us who commute alone a few miles to work/school/services.

  8. DrLoser says:

    I point out that several of the key issues raised are not an issue for the vast majority of person-miles of personal transportation by car where I live and much of North America.

    No you don’t. No you haven’t. Try again and pick one of TFA’s thirteen points to address.

    And what on earth possessed you to use the cite in the first place? Despite what you say in the OP, it blatantly contradicts everything you say about EVs.

    Headlines aren’t much of a good argument, you know.

  9. DrLoser wrote, “what part of this article did you think was particularly promising, vis-a-vis the medium term future of EVs in general?”

    TFA as written is about delays to wide adoption of EVs. I point out that several of the key issues raised are not an issue for the vast majority of person-miles of personal transportation by car where I live and much of North America.

    Folks tend to live close to where they go to school/work/play/shop but often not close enough to walk or cycle and they commute alone by the millions. Certainly there are families and couples who go places together but often a couple may spend the day in different places and need separate transportation. For these reasons Solo and EVs like Solo have a major market share that they can serve today, not in a decade after a list of things change.

    TFA is great for listing a bunch of possible obstacles but for folks that just want to go from A to B, say 10-15 miles to work, there is no obstacle except the volume of production. EMV is taking care of that and I expect they will be maxed out for several years while other makers wonder why EMV is selling Solos and they are not.

  10. DrLoser says:

    Just out of interest, Robert, what part of this article did you think was particularly promising, vis-a-vis the medium term future of EVs in general?

    As I say, it was a total bummer for me.

  11. joepeatf wrote, “Solo need a lot of training wheel”.

    Nope. See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HPIth6g-VOY

    See also https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0eUlPeXL8wc

    For a thorough honest review of a street-Solo, See https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gei5LgVwV0E

    And another… https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9DOy-bZoyq4

    See? No worry about stability whatsoever.

  12. joepeatf wrote, “Solo EV is fail in USA”.

    Fact not in evidence. Solo is loved by lots of people who see it on the street, on display or on a test-drive.

  13. joepeatf says:

    Reality Jerry’s Solo need a lot of training wheel

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DRGuMKVqNzA

  14. joepeatf says:

    That’s nonsense. The particular design in that video has one wheel up front and a high centre of gravity. Solo has two wheels up front and despite running many thousands of kilometres none has rolled.
    Robert Pogson reverse car a lot of is rollover hence Solo EV is not safe. A lot of car crash is in parking lot Fred reverse car however he reverse very fast..car is rollover.

    Solo EV is fail in USAian. USAian has a lot of fast rode hence it is a lot of rollover. Fred use fast rode however DrIdiot scare Fred hence Fred change lane very fast..Fred rollover. Deafspy the bully beep beep Fred hence Fred need change lane very fast however it is 100kmh+turn..Fred rollover.

    Ice rode+80kmh=rollover also

    many thousands of kilometres is not a lot of kilometres. Solo EV need a lot of test. 1000000000 humans>1000 kilometres. Do Jerry use Solo EV in in Ice rode?

  15. joepeatf wrote, “3wheel car have a lot of rollover”.

    That’s nonsense. The particular design in that video has one wheel up front and a high centre of gravity. Solo has two wheels up front and despite running many thousands of kilometres none has rolled.

  16. Kurkosdr wrote, “the mythical Chinese factory will happen.”

    There’s nothing mythical about it. These guys are automated up the wazoo and they know how to crank out all kinds of stuff. Check out Google.

    Look for “Solo projects”. Here’s an example of a low-speed tricycle that the Chinese already produce. Range is 70 km. Top speed is 40km/h.

    Solo is real and it’s happening in China. Those folks know how to make stuff.

  17. Ivan says:

    And of course there’s nothing at all sinister about claiming to be “a top thought leader.”

    Sadly, it’s an actual job title but a clear indicator that the person using said title is, as you say, spouting bollocks.

  18. Kurkosdr says:

    According to my spreadsheet, if EM were to build 10 a month, you would not receive yours until mid-2022 sometime Robert.

    How many vehicles has EMV delivered anyways? But hey, the mythical Chinese factory will happen.

    Pog, you do realise that your chances of receiving a refund on that deposit decrease exponentially by the passage of time?

  19. joepeatf says:

    Robert Pogson but does Solo EV rollover?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QQh56geU0X8

    Reality 3wheel car have a lot of rollover. It rollover more then SUV I believe.

  20. DrLoser says:

    And of course there’s nothing at all sinister about claiming to be “a top thought leader.”

    Oh no. Not at all. Very trustworthy.

  21. DrLoser says:

    You can’t assume gender these days.

    Nor can you assume that the human in question is “a consultant, marketing executive and thought leader at companies including Arthur Andersen, USWeb/CKS, EmailLabs, Lyris, Silverpop and IBM. Widely acknowledged as a top thought leader on email marketing,” Ivan. Which means that Robert can legitimately claim that his cite is the cite of a saint, a saviour of the atmosphere, in short a man of almost FLOSS-like goodness.

    Then again, I can’t see that it really matters whether this individual is male, female, transgender or even simian. I can sniff hypocrisy and bollocks from a female marketer just as easily as I can sniff hypocrisy and bollocks from a male one. Well, actually, I can’t because I’d have to lower my nose by about six inches, but I’d be speaking non-metaphorically in that case, wouldn’t I?

    This individual is spouting bollocks.

  22. Ivan says:

    All very convincing, I trust you will agree.

    I’m not convinced that individual is a man. You can’t assume gender these days.

  23. DrLoser says:

    There are some corners of the article which are erroneous, however.

    I wouldn’t say “erroneous,” RObert, so much as “not supporting the author’s case in any way, shape, or form whatsoever.” Here we go.

    1) “For most automakers, however, we likely won’t see 5–7 EV models actively sold (not compliance models) for another 7–10 years.” So, a no-no for the medium term future, then.

    2) “When EVs have comparable driving range and are priced the same or at least very close to ICE vehicles — and without government incentives — then and only then will a huge adoption hurdle be eliminated.” So, a no-no for the medium term future, then. Though actually I would think government incentives are a bonus. Might be longer than the medium term, therefore.

    3) “I believe that a significant percentage of consumers (especially late adopters and laggards in truck- and SUV-crazy USA) will expect EVs to have a range of 400–500 miles…” So, a no-no for the medium term, then. And no, Robert, a Solo does not replace a truck or an SUV. Here we go long-term again.

    4) “An abundant supply of fast-charging stations … is critical to driving mass adoption of EVs.” Bit of a chicken-and-egg situation, really, and I would call it “a basic requirement” rather than “a driver.” But actually, this one is feasible. Probably with government intervention. (Which I don’t see as a bad thing.)

    5) “Will 15 to 20 minutes or more with a DC fast charge suffice or will a significant percentage of consumers expect EVs to charge in about 10 minutes?” Risible. People are used to ~45 seconds at the fuel pump. Saving that extra five minutes isn’t going to make the nut. In fact, given the routine queues at my local gas station … Do the math, Robert.

    6) “A significant increase in gas (petrol) prices could greatly increase interest in PHEVs or BEVs by consumers [etc].” Again, risible. No it won’t. It wouldn’t anyway, but as I say, the grid power is generated mostly off fossil fuels, and anyway, this guy has apparently never heard of shale. As witness his (presumably independently sourced) graph, which extrapolates the “reference” price of gas going from $2.50 now to $3.50 by 2050. You could probably save half the difference by better ICE technology, and the rest by simple compound growth.

    7) “If demand for EVs suddenly exploded (unlikely),” — not the finest argument for going with the things — “it is possible that the supply of battery packs could not keep up with demand (again unlikely)” — not even an economically coherent argument. “If, however, battery production starts to scale significantly and with increased supplier competition …” — driven by, what? Lack of demand? Another no-no for the medium term.

    8) “It is expected that EVs with solid-state batteries will begin reaching the market perhaps around 2025 and potentially with range increases of 2 to 3 times standard lithium-ion battery packs. ” Again, a no-no in the medium term. Wake me up when I’m 75. I really want to be a 75 year old “early adopter.”

    9) “A future economic downturn in the US or other regions of the world could potentially impact the share of electric vehicle sales versus ICE vehicles…” Economic downturns correlate very well with a depressed price for oil, so guess what? Stupid argument.

    10) “China is the largest market in the world for vehicle sales and, as the Chinese government is pushing electric vehicles, what happens in China greatly affects the rest of the world.” I love the way the imbecile goes on to recommend that China buy EVs from the major industrialised countries. That sounds so much like the way that the PRC works, doesn’t it?

    11) “In the US, Californians are driving EV adoption, with 50% of EV sales coming from residents of the Golden State, which just became the 5th largest economy in the world (passing up the UK). ” Looking at the graph, this one seems pretty impressive. I’m slightly surprised that 30 million Californians only buy 180,000 new vehicles a year, though. Oh, wait, that’s a self-definition of “advanced tech,” which includes hybrids. There goes the other five million or more sales, then.

    12) “Several countries and cities throughout the world — Germany, France, India, the UK, and more — have announced planned bans of ICE vehicles.” Well, government promises, good as gold. Bwahahahahahaha!.

    13) “The loss of some incentives in various regions could have a significant negative impact on EV sales in those markets.” Way to go to be positive, son.

    Now, I actually started that article, not expecting much, but looking for reasons to support EVs in some form or other. Preferably a safe form that involves four wheels, a proper crash-handling system, and someone other than Robert behind the wheel. But I actually like the idea of EVs.

    Somehow, Robert has managed to find just about the only “rah rah” site that can actively put me off.

    (The entire site is apparently owned and run by this guy, incidentally.)

  24. Grece says:

    promising to use his ludicrous Chinese “tractorette” as a diesel generator over the long winter months in Manitoba.

    Ahhh yes, I recall that. Hooking it up to some large electric motor, burning diesel, adding CO2 the the air and bragging about stiffing the man as he is smarter by saving a miserly few hundred watts.

    I also recall Robert ended up buying second tiller as the first one was far too powerful.

  25. DrLoser says:

    But, Ivan, since you ask: Loren McDonald appears to be (a) male (b) a highly successful corporate shill and (c) this man.

    All very convincing, I trust you will agree.

  26. DrLoser says:

    Why do I get the feeling that article was written by some twit in a studio apartment that only owns a weeks worth of clothes, a tiny laptop, a small cactus, and the only family she has is the skunk she feeds mistakenly believing it’s a cat?

    Presumably because it’s another one of Robert’s fad websites. He’s quite industrious at swapping from one to the next every three months or so.

    It doesn’t seem to bother him that there’s little or no credibility attached to the one he just left (which he never apologises for) or the one he’s just joined (which is generally indistinguishable babble, unsupported by facts).

    I miss the good old days when he was promising to use his ludicrous Chinese “tractorette” as a diesel generator over the long winter months in Manitoba. Clearly nonsense, of course, but at least he was being honest about his preference for saving pennies, over the alternative choice of spewing NOx particulates into the atmosphere.

  27. DrLoser says:

    The beauty of Solo is that it’s not pushing any technological bounds.

    To mis-quote the rather appositely named “Field of Dreams:”

    “If you can’t sell it, you won’t be pushing any technological bounds.”

    Beautiful, as you say.

  28. Ivan says:

    especially late adopters and laggards in truck- and SUV-crazy USA

    Why do I get the feeling that article was written by some twit in a studio apartment that only owns a weeks worth of clothes, a tiny laptop, a small cactus, and the only family she has is the skunk she feeds mistakenly believing it’s a cat?

    Ya’ll ain’t gonna haul squat in that there solo, son.

  29. Grece wrote, “Do you even understand that technology makes large gains in 5-years, and huge bounds in 15-years? By the time you obtain you precious, technology will just push it aside.”

    The beauty of Solo is that it’s not pushing any technological bounds. Most of the components except the body are COTS. EMV just finds a supplier and assembles the parts. It’s not state of the art but it’s plenty good enough for its target market.

  30. Grece says:

    Enter the Solo? Hell, Solo hasn’t even exited the manufacturer’s building!

    According to my spreadsheet, if EM were to build 10 a month, you would not receive yours until mid-2022 sometime Robert.

    Do you even understand that technology makes large gains in 5-years, and huge bounds in 15-years? By the time you obtain you precious, technology will just push it aside.

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