Speculating On How Solo EV Will Do In Canada

“2013 EV sales in Canada totaled over 1,600 for battery EVs (BEV) and plug-in hybrid EVs (PHEV) each. Since that time the market has only seen temporary leveling of a month or two. Annual numbers have always built upon previous years as the market continues to grow. 2017 is a perfect example of that fact as sales stats half way through the year are up 70% over the first half of 2016. With the trajectory of sales only heading up and at a faster pace, Q2 may be the quarter where the EV takeover became official”
 
See Electric Vehicle Sales In Canada, Q2 2017
I have a horse in this race. I put down a deposit on a “2017” Solo EV which might be delivered about this time next year.

The statistics on sales of current EVs suggest:

  • Canadians don’t seem to want weird boxy-shaped EVs, and
  • Canadians by the thousands have been shelling out huge prices for fancier EVs.

I know a few Canadians. I are one. We are reluctant to go with weird shapes. Solo EV, having 3 wheels, might get some notice in the looks department. OTOH, Solo is very streamlined and not boxy. I think that could work. Further, I think a lot more Canadians would be interested in EVs if the price and cost of ownership were less. Solo has that covered with an extremely low air-drag and a good battery capacity for the weight and drag. Three wheels helps a bit too as there’s less rolling resistance and air-drag on the wheels.

Overall, I’d say Solo will do much better than some of the newcomers for looks/performance and better than the top brands for cost/efficiency. There’s a market there. How large it will be is debatable but judging by the numbers for other newcomers, it’s in line with proposed production numbers for the plant in Richmond, BC, and the factory in China will be able to handle any slack. I think Solo could sell 1000 units in Canada by some time in 2019 if not sooner. If the Government of Canada wakes up and formulates a policy to drive electrically, Solo is a winner. EMV already have thousands of orders so I don’t think there’s any problem getting orders unless the wheels fall off. Solo could be taking some share from Tesla and Nissan for those who just want a car for commuting/errands. That’s a big slice of the pie. Once the first 1000 are sold, I think there will be an avalanche of sales, the old “positive feedback” thing.

I bet by 2020, everyone will be making a Solo-like car for commuters/urban/short-trippers and Solo will be in the lead in that segment. Combined with the ever increasing popularity of EVs, EMV could be building multiple North American factories to serve demand.

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.

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42 Responses to Speculating On How Solo EV Will Do In Canada

  1. oiaohm says:

    Grece so what OS do you use??

  2. Grece says:

    You don’t know anything.

  3. oiaohm says:

    Robert Pogson
    That statement ignores Obama’s bailout of automakers in his first term.
    That was miss management by Automakers. Not that the development was needing the funding.

    modernization of plant and development of much more compact cars
    That was fairly much upgrade to what the Asian plants were doing.

    This, Hammie, is why we keep telling you to stop pretending you know anything and everything based only on googling about keywords — such “knowledge” is effectively worthless.
    So referring a non existing again. Its what you guys do. I use a lot of not able to be found by googling keywords without knowing the field and the words to type in.

    The reality here having to admit I know stuff kinda ruins their complete game.

    Google all you like and the exact reasons why the WT-15 is used in Australian movie world will not be there. Reality is Grece does not even google just presume any random dreamed up crap is true.

    Unless, of course, you already know at least the basics about the given topic – which you don’t, as you have managed to prove time and time again.
    There is a reason why older man now avoids getting into direct arguments with me. Because he worked out that was a trick. And you suckers are still falling straight for it.

  4. Grece says:

    Day in the life of a Call of Dooty player.

    HamDong1 this is AssKruncher2, break…break. We are feet-dry, what are the coordinates, over?

    Marfan hands scramble into action, furious Google searching happens in an instant.

    AssKruncher2, HamDong1, Latitude: 50.045396 | Longitude: -97.004278

  5. An Out Of Phase Transistor says:

    Oh dear me, switched 5 with a 4 there, well what will we ever do now, I wonder.

  6. An Out Of Phase Transistor says:

    “…you google for it alone and nothing shows up.”

    Oh, but it does show, it does… just nothing to do with what you might think it would.

    “AK-14” gives me car insurance packages for instance…

    This, Hammie, is why we keep telling you to stop pretending you know anything and everything based only on googling about keywords — such “knowledge” is effectively worthless.

    Unless, of course, you already know at least the basics about the given topic – which you don’t, as you have managed to prove time and time again. No surprise there given your tendency to play rocket-scientist, no matter the cost.

  7. oiaohm wrote, “Its been decades since IC development has need direct government funding.”

    That statement ignores Obama’s bailout of automakers in his first term. They were making cars no one wanted to buy so the bailout went into a lot of modernization of plant and development of much more compact cars to suit the price of oil. Now that oil is less expensive, funding ICEs is unlikely but consumers are converting to EVs to automakers are trying to keep ahead of the wave even though it is very disruptive. e.g. I think dealerships will have to change. There will be less revenue for maintenance especially oil-changes and ICE maintenance. Some of the service department parking lots may have to be converted to charging stations.

    Most automakers are trying to develop EVs in the image of the ICEd auto. That’s not very efficient. e.g. Nissan has a complicated transmission whereas Solo has two gears and a belt. So, when competition in EVs grows a bit, folks like Tesla and Nissan may lose share of the market. At the moment, no automaker makes anything like Solo. If Solo grows as I expect the other makers will be behind the wave of adoption of EVs.

  8. oiaohm says:

    https://c1cleantechnicacom-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/files/2016/12/solar-energy-costs-wind-energy-costs-LCOE-Lazard.png
    This is why wind turbine farms in the US is a huge money-grab. Once the government money goes away, they will all fall down.
    Clueless much Grece. Without subsidies Wind farms are cheaper than Coal, Oil, Gas Nuclear even allowing for storage. Countries without subsidies/money from government are building wind farms because they are cost effective.

    Of course the other renewable like Solar panels and Solar farms those without subsidies are in trouble.

    Deafspy Efficiency is the reason for the rise of hybrids. Electric engines are great where IC engines perform horribly. Government funding of pure EV would most likely not have seen the development into hybrids.

    Without support, Tesla is dead within one year.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Renault_Zoe
    There are many other electrics that are sold around the world that were on the market before the Tesla and have recovered development costs and made profit without any government support.

    IC never saw such support.
    IC not getting government funding someone likes to forget the Volkswagen Beetle and others like it in the IC that were government funded early on.

    Its been decades since IC development has need direct government funding. What I find horrible about the Tesla most of the IC government funded cars had a mandate to be for the common person. Tesla does not have the requirement.

  9. oiaohm says:

    Grece come on how much of idiot are you. I have told you enough times you cannot ask me a question without using my correct name.

    An Out Of Phase Transistor by the way Grece does not know the topic. Put “australian wt-15” into google and crack up laughing. And wake up you were wrong he got it bite over AR-15 and was too dumb to know it. Of course WT-15 is perfect you google for it alone and nothing shows up.

  10. Grece says:

    IC never saw such support.

    This is why wind turbine farms in the US is a huge money-grab. Once the government money goes away, they will all fall down.

  11. Deaf Spy says:

    Free markets could not seize the lands needed to widen the horse tracks and foot paths into paved roads.

    Of course not. The could have paid for it.

    We retired our horses. They no longer were needed to cut hay for the cattle or haul cars out of the swamp

    Of course you did. You start to come close the actual reason for the bloom of IC vehicles. It is one word, Robert – efficiency. Efficiency that everybody wants and needs, and is ready to pay for it. The rest is just ravings of a lunatic.

    Roads are needed for everything, Robert, stop pretending only IC vehicles use them. Romans built roads for their carts, horses and troops. Last time I checked, EVs are still not flying above the ground.

    As a matter of fact, EVs are the ones who get real push from the government. Governments sponsor EVs, reduce taxes, provide special parking places, etc. Without support, Tesla is dead within one year.

    IC never saw such support.

  12. Deaf Spy wrote, “I assume you have data showing the number of owned carts vs. owned IC vehicles before and after this limit was imposed. That is the only way to prove your claims.”

    Do you even know what a township/county is? It’s a region easily accessible on foot or horseback. It’s a region where a local government makes sense. When I was a kid, townships were just being phased out. Instead of a local government region, they are now a means of registration of land ownership. Local governments now cover regions ~50 miles in size. That was triggered by creation of highways and railways that superseded feet and horses. Governments were intimately involved in those changes. Free markets could not seize the lands needed to widen the horse tracks and foot paths into paved roads.

    When I was a boy, we lived on a small farm north of Winnipeg. In wet weather, the family car had to be parked on the other side of the swamp. Then schools were centralized in larger communities and roads were improved to provide routes for school buses. We retired our horses. They no longer were needed to cut hay for the cattle or haul cars out of the swamp. Now there are proper gravel roads the last few miles around that place. Asphalt highway is walking distance from our gate. Government made those changes, not free enterprise.

    Government enabled automakers to sell more units per 100K population. Government expropriated lands for roads, cities, bridges, etc. Government promoted ICEd vehicles as a means of making the country more easily governable. Governments now realize their mistake and are welcoming the change from ICEd to EV, making urban areas more livable and increasing energy-efficiency of the economy. Governments benefit and their people benefit when more gets done with less energy. That’s why they should promote EVs. Canada and Manitoba are gradually being sucked into the 21st century. It’s happening and I am helping by being on the leading edge of adoption, assuming EMV gets its act together. I will power my Solo by Sun’s power which does not pollute, drown us with noise and suck my pension into a black hole of waste.

  13. Deaf Spy says:

    There was a time when the lower speed limit was 70 km/h on our major highways.

    Of course, I assume you have data showing the number of owned carts vs. owned IC vehicles before and after this limit was imposed. That is the only way to prove your claims.

    Reading your claims I can assume:
    1. Canadian government first built highways at the times when there were no IC vehicles around and people were happy with their carts and bicycles.
    2. Canadians would have never bought IC vehicles but the evil government forced them to do so by prohibiting slow transport along these highways.

    Hey, that is one very stupid and evil government. Normally people revolt in cases like that.

    EVs will reduce the pressure to continue such stupidity.

    Eh, how?

  14. Grece says:

    Grece still asking non existing people questions. What is a WT-15 and why would a Australian movie maker be using that one Grece? I know the answers so don’t attempt fibbing your way out.

    Fibbing Peter? I simply asked you a grade-school level question, namely, what is an AK-15? I am not sure I understand the connection to fibbing. But nonetheless, I have another question now. What is an WT-15? Is it along the lines of a BFG-9000??

  15. Deaf Spy wrote, “it prohibited carts and bicycles by imposing minimum speed limits on all the newly built roads.”

    That’s true. There was a time when the lower speed limit was 70 km/h on our major highways. Now the specific speed has been dropped and it’s “slow enough to impede traffic” or the like. There are several bridges and roadways on which pedestrian traffic is forbidden. It’s all about worshiping ICEd vehicles. Just look at an aerial view of most cities. What fraction of the area is given to motor-vehicles? It’s shocking. EVs will reduce the pressure to continue such stupidity.

  16. Deaf Spy says:

    Highway traffic act here forbids slow moving traffic

    So, Canadian government first built highways at the times when there were no IC vehicles around and people were happy with their carts and bicycles. Then, it prohibited carts and bicycles by imposing minimum speed limits on all the newly built roads. That caused people to sell their carts and start spending a lot of money on new IC vehicles.

    Robert, have you picked mushrooms recently? Or breathing too much of the chemicals you use in your gardening?

  17. An Out Of Phase Transistor says:

    Strange, I see Greece wasn’t able to get Hammie to lecture us on the curious matter of AK-15.

    Very strange indeed.

    Is our dear Hammie ill, or has the shadow fallen over the world and little creatures scuttle away in fear?

  18. “Show us a law that stimulated or forced people to buy IC vehicles to replace they carts and bicycles.”

    Highway traffic act here forbids slow moving traffic.

  19. Deaf Spy says:

    When I was a boy, there were very few paved roads. Paving those roads was an act of government and it wasn’t about horses. They didn’t need paved roads.

    Of course horses need paved roads. There is quite difference if they pull a cart through muddy bumps than over paved road. Romans were quite aware of this and built fantastic paved roads.

    Governments also permitted buried fuel tanks near residential areas.

    You put the cart before the horse. Governments can’t permit something before they forbid it first.

    Then you miss the fact that these regulations came after IC vehicles were already here, and popular enough to justify the demands for such tanks. It was not the tanks that stimulated IC sales, but vice versa.

    Show us a law that stimulated or forced people to buy IC vehicles to replace they carts and bicycles.

    Finally, you conveniently avoid the fact that diesel engines, very popular in EU, can run on plant oils, which are completely renewable.

  20. oiaohm says:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9wJPhB9mfxE

    Think of all the disposal waste in lithium cells!
    Grece the shocking reality is that Lithium cells are a higher grade ore in a lot of cases than what the Lithium and most of the other metals in the battery was extracted from in the first place. So is cheaper to extract Lithium from spent batteries than it is to mine more out the ground. Apply current mining refining methods to spent Lithium cells and the result is profitable.

    This is why it so stupid that the batteries end up in land fill even that it is illegal for them to be there in most countries. Yes it is illegal in most countries for lithium cells to be disposal waste to be legal they are required to be refined(being put back through the mining process) in many countries. Now its how to get humans to do the correct thing with their expired batteries.

  21. Grece says:

    Think how quiet and pure our cities will become.

    Think of all the disposal waste in lithium cells!

  22. Deaf Spy wrote, “You need to explain how exactly governments, not the actual free market, helped ICed replace other vehicles, like bicycles, or ox-cards, or tramways, or trains.”

    When I was a boy, there were very few paved roads. Paving those roads was an act of government and it wasn’t about horses. They didn’t need paved roads. Similarly, governments fell over themselves permitting rampant oil-exploration. They didn’t need to do that. There was enough oil to grease the wheels of industry but not private passenger cars. Governments also permitted buried fuel tanks near residential areas. This was a recipe for contamination of aquifers but it happened all over Canada. Obviously, governments were persuaded by the needs of the automobile industry rather than the need for clean water. Now, governments are spending $billions checking for spills and inspecting decommissioning of storage tanks and replacing tanks with tanks with double walls etc. A lot of filling stations could be replaced with charging stations. Then there are widened streets to meet demands for traffic with 5-7 passenger vehicles running around empty. Think of the $billions that will be saved if Solo succeeds. Think how quiet and pure our cities will become.

  23. Deaf Spy says:

    Stay focused, Robert.

    You need to explain how exactly governments, not the actual free market, helped ICed replace other vehicles, like bicycles, or ox-cards, or tramways, or trains.

    P.S. People laughing, asking “is this a car”… Depressing, admittedly depressing. Yesterday, picking my car from the carwash, I saw some guy taking a selfie standing by my Volvo V90 CC… Didn’t have to hand him a leaflet explaining what I was actually driving.

  24. Grece wrote, “Attracting attention, does not lead to sales”.

    Only in primitive conditions, unlike Canada.

  25. Grece says:

    Attracting attention, does not lead to sales, which in turn, mandates that the seller build more then one a quarter.

  26. Leona, the proud owner of the first solo writes that she loves driving the solo and attracts a lot of attention wherever she goes so I think the positive feedback is proven. See http://www.soloowners.net/showthread.php?tid=647&pid=4041#pid4041

  27. Deaf Spy says:

    Well, governments have actually paid to build the roads here. The free market would have done so with toll booths every few miles…

    Eh, what is the difference if I pay via a toll or via taxes? Tolls are actually fairer. You pay only for what you use, and with taxes you pay just because.

    Governments have permitted storage of tens of thousands gallons of fuel in underground tanks near residential areas. Try doing that as an ordinary citizen without government support.

    How is this actually a contribution by the government? These storage facilities are private anyway, and are built with private investments.

    The rest is getting only worse. You speak of some recent regulations that never affected the massive penetration of ICed vehicles. Your notion for speed-limits is even laughable. Speed-limits is a maximum limit, not a minimum limit, and everyone is free to select his driving mode. You sure you understand what I want you to explain?

    Again. You need to explain how exactly governments, not the actual free market, helped ICed replace other vehicles, like bicycles, or ox-cards, or tramways, or trains.

  28. Deaf Spy wrote, “You need to explain how exactly “governments have enabled” that industry, and not the actual free market.”

    Well, governments have actually paid to build the roads here. The free market would have done so with toll booths every few miles… Governments have permitted storage of tens of thousands gallons of fuel in underground tanks near residential areas. Try doing that as an ordinary citizen without government support. Governments have mandated difficulties in owning older vehicles even if they still function well, increasing turnover. Governments have often raised speed-limits and therefor increased demand for fossil-fuels. When I was young, speed-limits on highways were 80km/h at night but now 100km/h is common and it’s deadly for car-deer collisions and really wastes nearly twice as much fuel per km.

  29. Deaf Spy says:

    Irrelevant. Governments have enabled a huge industry supplying ICEd vehicles and servicing them.

    You need to explain how exactly “governments have enabled” that industry, and not the actual free market.

    Hint: You may start by pointing out the laws that gave advantage to ICed compared to other vehicles, like bicycles, or ox-cards, or tramways, or trains.

  30. Deaf Spy wrote, “Governments, Robert, didn’t permit these. They didn’t prohibit them. Oil extraction and pollution were not regulated to start with, until some government officials decided they should. Elementary history.”

    Irrelevant. Governments have enabled a huge industry supplying ICEd vehicles and servicing them. It’s about time governments did the same for EVs, particularly since cities are being suffocated and people poisoned and Earth cooked by ICEs. Government incentives are merely an accelerator of movements happening naturally in the economy, driven by a need for clean air, avoidance of global warming and efficiency. Instead of taking >20 years to migrate to EVs, the change can happen in 5-10 years with support. Governments did little more than advertise the fact that hybrids saved the environment and cost less to operate to promote them. That’s the least governments can do for EVs. Promoting charging stations and/or subsidizing purchases is advisable, just to speed the process. The world largely has no need for ICEd vehicles because the world largely lives in cities or suburbs. It’s silly to keep such a technology in ascendance too long. It’s the right thing to do to promote better technology.

    An example. TLW and I have both an ICEd and an electric whipper-snipper to control weeds. The ICEd version was used once this year ISTR while TLW often took out the electric version to blast weeds adjacent to her pet rocks.

  31. Deaf Spy says:

    Governments have permitted oil extraction, pollution and expropriated land for roads.

    Dear, dear, dear.

    Governments, Robert, didn’t permit these. They didn’t prohibit them. Oil extraction and pollution were not regulated to start with, until some government officials decided they should. Elementary history.

    Then, let’s consider that diesel engines can happily run on rapeseed oil. Do someone needs government’s permission to grow rapeseed and produce oil from it?

    expropriated land for roads.

    Of course, there’ve been no roads in the history of human civilization before ICs. Absolutely no, sir. You know, Robert, it is good to stand by your ideas, but it is not good to make a complete fool of yourself for them.

  32. Deaf Spy wrote, “That says it all. Without regulations, government subsidies and all, EVs are doomed today.”

    The same could be said for ICEd vehicles. Governments have permitted oil extraction, pollution and expropriated land for roads. EVs are different but worthy of similar interventions. Further, governments can certainly steer economies to greater efficiency.

  33. Deaf Spy says:

    If the Government of Canada wakes up and formulates a policy to drive electrically, Solo is a winner

    That says it all. Without regulations, government subsidies and all, EVs are doomed today. Greenies and hipsters manage to persuade leftist governments to spend other people’s money on their pet projects, but this is not going to work in the long run.

    I have no liking to sponsor someone else’s businesses and cars with my money. Many other people don’t either, as the recent elections results in US and quite some EU countries demonstrate. Don’t expect bright future for EVs, Robert.

    EVs need to evolve properly to be a viable alternative to ICs. Today they are not.

  34. ram says:

    I think EV’s are about to take off, although the way things are going soon I’ll be able to afford a Rolls:

    http://www.afr.com/research-tools/GXY/share-prices

  35. oiaohm says:

    Grece still asking non existing people questions. What is a WT-15 and why would a Australian movie maker be using that one Grece? I know the answers so don’t attempt fibbing your way out.

    What is it with posting half baked fake image Grece? What are you accusing Robert of using a fake image. Really a lot if people think image editing software can fake stuff but in fact faking a scan is a lot harder than people would think due to the back ground noise of scanning.

  36. Grece says:

    Hey Robert! Check it out, I have a pony in this race too. I put down a deposit on a “2017” Solo EV which won’t ever be delivered.

    Aren’t I so smart, now I can live the EV life.

    https://image.ibb.co/ikD3D6/Solo_Confirmation.jpg

  37. Grece says:

    Coincidentally, Hammy, I have a question for you, it’s rather simple.

    What is an AK-15?

  38. oiaohm says:

    Grece
    You chastise a mistyped word, but you embrace Hammy’s ramblings as truth?
    Really grece you have chastised people for miss spelling a word. You have also done ramblings of lie after lie. About time you stop being double standard Grece.

  39. kurkosdr says:

    I have a horse in this race.

    Or more accurately, a donkey pretending to be horse. Or even more accurately, the vague promise of that.

    I put down a deposit on a “2017” Solo EV which might be delivered about this time next year.
    So, you have already abandoned the Q1 2018 hopes. Remember when you said that “the sun will rise and set tomorrow, and I will have my Solo in Q1 2018”. I really hope you were trolling and not that delusional, otherwise dementia is just around the corner. Now, I will wait while you constantly redifine the delivery day all the way to Q3 2026.

  40. Grece says:

    You chastise a mistyped word, but you embrace Hammy’s ramblings as truth?

    Please!

  41. Grece wrote, “Quit lying Robert, you never put done anything!”

    It’s funny when a guy who can’t spell “down” demands stuff.

    See

  42. Grece says:

    Quit lying Robert, you never put done anything!

    It is hilarious though, that the article you provided never mentions the “alleged” sale of the Solo at all. Why is that?

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