HURRICANES And Hurricanes

“Andrew was a small and ferocious Cape Verde hurricane that wrought unprecedented economic devastation along a path through the northwestern Bahamas, the southern Florida peninsula, and south-central Louisiana. Damage in the United States is estimated to be near 25 billion, making Andrew the most expensive natural disaster in U.S. history1. The tropical cyclone struck southern Dade County, Florida, especially hard, with violent winds and storm surges characteristic of a category 4 hurricane (see addendum on upgrade to category 5) on the Saffir/Simpson Hurricane Scale, and with a central pressure (922 mb) that is the third lowest this century for a hurricane at landfall in the United States. In Dade County alone, the forces of Andrew resulted in 15 deaths and up to one-quarter million people left temporarily homeless. An additional 25 lives were lost in Dade County from the indirect effects of Andrew2. The direct loss of life seems remarkably low considering the destruction caused by this hurricane.”
 
See The Tropical Prediction Center’s main page on Hurricane Andrew of 1992
Well, some things just make you want to give your head a shake. After what we saw recently in Texas and what happened in Florida a while back, you’d think governments would take hurricanes seriously.

The situation: Hurricane Irma is forecast to hit Florida with much stronger winds and lick the whole eastern shore whereas Andrew just nipped the tip of Florida. Irma is forecast to strike with 150mph winds tapering to 120mph in the northern parts.

Why isn’t there wholesale evacuation happening? Instead, just low-lying parts are being told to evacuate as if the wind wouldn’t do a lot of damage. 150mph will destroy most light structures. 120 mph winds will kill lots of people.

The damage will happen one way or another. Many deaths can be prevented by evacuating systematically starting today. The highways should be made one-way streets to the north. Every bus, truck or plane should be moving people north. Even northern Florida is not far enough. People should avoid the east coast all the way to the Carolinas.

Instead, people are wasting time buying groceries and putting up plywood sheets. Half the highway lanes are being cluttered with fuel trucks bringing fuel to the south. Governments claim evacuation is not possible. They should make a plan and make it possible. Starting too late is avoidable.

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.

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22 Responses to HURRICANES And Hurricanes

  1. oiaohm says:

    Grece what is the height of a shipping container.

    Considering that the average height for male and females are 5.6′ and 5.2′ respectively, a 8.5′ storm surge from a hurricane would be deadly to any occupants as they would be UNDER WATER.
    http://www.australiatrade.com.au/Shipping/ContainerSizeSales/ 2.90m (9.50 ft) is the max height of a shipping container.

    Grece that irregularity is that you are a idiot. Lot of people are not aware there are vents that let air in but block water.
    http://www.air-onlyventilators.com/

    So these high rating container once you get doors closed you will not drown even if the container goes under water. You risk is suffocation because occupants of the container is going to be in air as long as they got the doors closed before flood hit but if the container is under water air exchange will not happen.

    So yes these d2 housing containers are rated once closed you can drop them in the sea pull them back out the internal contents of the container house are still dry and that air exchange will happen with the doors closed as long as the container is not 100 percent submerged. So the high rated housing containers are effectively the worst shaped boat as well. Yes drainage in them has non return designs. So they even seal once the connecting lines break.

    Grece this is all proper design built right they can float if they are not solidly mounted down and if you don’t have morning line they can be washed away. After one cyclone flood in a toilet block version a person was found 15 km out to sea and yes the toilet block shipping container d2 rated was brought back. It was only at sea for a day and half. I was never that unlucky.

  2. Grece says:

    Flood height of 8.5ft (2.59m) is required for you to be at threat from flood water once the doors are closed.

    Noting numerous irregularities in your previous posting HamDong, I picked this one as it was the most outrageous. Considering that the average height for male and females are 5.6′ and 5.2′ respectively, a 8.5′ storm surge from a hurricane would be deadly to any occupants as they would be UNDER WATER.

  3. oiaohm says:

    Grece housing on Antarctica has to tolerate hurricane winds quite regularly.

    Your dumbass would lock yourself in and drown from the storm surge.
    That is one of the advantages of the shipping container buildings. Is doors that lock shut that are water proof. So a D2 rated shipping container house mounted and vented correctly in configuration that does not float. Flood height of 8.5ft (2.59m) is required for you to be at threat from flood water once the doors are closed. Interesting enough they have a exit hatch in the roof. They can be configured to float after they are have at least 1m of water around them.

    Basically you are the idiot here Grece high rated shipping container buildings are quite safe.

    Grece I have been in two different cyclone and been in shipping container based buildings in both. One was a floating with mornings configuration and yes it did get hit by storm surge I would recommend avoid that is possible is not the most nice ride.

    Please note I said with correct modifications
    Shipping containers, hurricane winds?
    So is not just a shipping container. Its a shipping container with an added internal frame. Shipping container high rated buildings are stronger than you standard shipping containers.

    Basically when you learn to read instead of being a idiot grece then comment other wise you are just showing you are a complete moron.

  4. Grece says:

    Shipping containers, hurricane winds?

    Lol, Fifield you’re a joke. I’d pay good money to see you ride through a hurricane in one. Your dumbass would lock yourself in and drown from the storm surge.

  5. oiaohm says:

    Robert Pogson
    http://i-build.com.au/knowledgebase/cyclone-rated-modular-homes/
    http://i-build.com.au/containers-for-sale/
    Do note I said correct modifications. This group will do shipping containers and will do them do D2 rating that is 320km/h wind tolerance when placed on a suitable foundation above ground. So 10km/h above a standard house C4 rating.

    Robert Pogson i-build container high risers are found in a few capital cites of Australia. 5 stories high made out of modified shipping containers with D2 rating.

    C4+ is shipping containers done right with them above ground. Dug in you are talking insanely high rating.

    They can also be damaged by a fire induced by a hurricane. This is also something that limited depending on the construction the shipping container above ground can have a full fire tolerance rating.

    At C4 to D2 the building can look normal. Its all how strong the materials are and how strong the frame is.

    Needing to resist tornado scale winds is another matter then you need to dig in. Basically Cyclones and Hurricanes are not in the highly powerful scale of natural events all bar insane rare ones above ground standard looking building can withstand them if they are build right.

    Interesting point about shipping containers houses is the D2 rating is considered a very low rating. 253 MPH/407Kmh winds were recorded in Australia 1996 for Cyclone Olivia and mounted containers and C4 building were some few building to come out the other side without life threating damage. Please note structure had been damaged and this means it does not pass for a D or C rating at those speeds. Yes the Australian ratings are a very hard that the building other than minor repairs has to be basically perfect to get the rating. But this is a rare Cyclone/Hurricane to be pushing the upper limits of what building construction strength can be with proper construction even the most powerful cyclone recorded staying in your building if it a high rating does not have to threaten you life if flooding does not get at you.

    150mph winds when compared to the world record class cyclones/hurricanes like Olivia are nothing and we know what building can design can protect people from Olivia at the price of the building. 150 mph windows is still nothing to a D2 and C4+ building. 150 mph not enough power to do D2 and C4+ building any major structural damage.

    Shipping container houses on Antarctica have to be rated for 200mph min. So a D2 rated shipping container comprises in design have been taken that have in fact weakened it. Mostly because people want windows.

  6. oiaohm wrote, “One of the funny ones is shipping containers are C4+. So as long as you modify them correctly they are C4+.”

    Shipping containers may be strong but they are fluffy and a strong wind can scatter them like popcorn. They can also be damaged by a fire induced by a hurricane. You can anchor them and bury them but then you are just talking about a cave, something that doesn’t work in a modern high-density urban setting. There are lots of things you can bury but it costs a lot of money to build a city in a bomb-shelter.

  7. oiaohm says:

    Not everyone can live in raised bunkers.
    None of the C rating on buildings in Australia are what you would call a bunker. C4 building can be built from wood and steel.

    Even strong buildings made to survive the wind may be vulnerable to flooding and impact from objects thrown around.
    C rating here are based on wind speed+flying objects.

    So, you let the poor people in older homes die while the rich party.
    Regulation is required because you can build a multi million dollar home with a C1 rating. Price of building has very little effect on C rating up to C4. Method of construction is very important. Like for a galvanized iron roof C1 the roof can be nailed on C2-C4 roof has to be screwed on. A tiled roofs that you see on expensive buildings have a max rating of C3 and you have to put in hold down ties to achieve that or it only a C1. http://bristileroofing.com.au/nsw/benefits-of-roof-tiles/

    This is where it gets interesting some of the cheaper construction materials used right produce buildings with C4 ratings. Some of your more expensive materials cannot achieve C4 ratings.

    So yes it not unheard of in Australia for a boss in a storm to be bunkering down with employee because the employee cheaper built house is C4 and the boss expensive house is only C3 or lower.

    Please note Australian C rating are done if you just shut the doors and windows. Not putting up storm shutter or any other extra protection. So like having plastic windows instead of glass if its the correct grade of plastic is C4 and is cheaper than glass.

    This is the shocking reality if you attempt to build a cheap building on average you will be using more C4 rated materials than attempting to build the most expensive building. If those C4 rated materials are any use to you construction has to be done to take advantage of them.

    Hurricane alley it is possible to build buildings to C4 and cope with 95 percent of all Hurricanes. Tornado ally in the USA is a bigger problem as Tornado exceed the wind speed and impact resistance we can build in normal looking and normal material building.

    One of the funny ones is shipping containers are C4+. So as long as you modify them correctly they are C4+. So a C4 rated bunker is really simple to get its just concrete slab and a quarter shipping container with some vents that can be included by default with a minor door modification to be opened and closed from the inside.

    Cyclones and Hurricanes are not that deadly in most developed countries with decent building codes. Biggest risk is builds that have light ratings due to poor construction or failure to require regular inspections to know the building had become defective this is dealt with building regulation mostly. Next biggest risk is flooding and that is evacuate low areas.

    If good construction and inspection is mandated by regulation evacuations from cyclones and hurricanes should be quite minimal. Areas without building codes and standards hit by Cyclones and Hurricanes there are a lot of deaths form C2-4 level storms.

    Grece the numbers you have for the USA align with areas with decedent building construction regulation. This is partly why I get annoyed when people start saying we can remove regulation as some regulation is 100 required. Were you are mostly at risk if your building gets flooded or get caught outside instead of obeying the 3 little pigs and sheltering inside a decent building.

    Living in flood plains with the risk can be handled with construction. There are a few floating houses in Australia with C4 ratings.

    The reality here is if we hardened up the building codes there should be no requirement to evacuate people even from the flood plains in case of most cyclones and hurricanes. Only requirement should be get home before the storm or stay put in rated building if you cannot. Our building regulations are not as hard as they could be this is why evacuate is required in this case at all.

    Please note shipping containers bunkers constructed right float so as long as you have a mooring lines on it long and strong enough you can ride out the storm.

    This is the problem making stuff to C4 rating is not hard. Most of the the things that make a building not C4 cost more than use the C4 option. So we need regulation against human stupidity.

  8. Grece says:

    TLW cucked you into signing a home unseen. LOL!!

  9. Grece wrote, “refuse to move but advise others not build upon one as you have done.”

    TLW bought this property while I was in the Arctic. She sent me some mortgage papers to sign. At a glance I would have told her not to buy it. It’s a swamp near the river…

  10. Grece wrote, “88% percent of U.S. deaths from hurricanes and tropical storms are from water, not wind.”

    What the heck do you think pushes that water inland? It’s wind and convection. In Harvey it was mostly convection but the wind carried the vapour from the Gulf over land. People don’t survive well in a building they are in if it’s shredded by wind and thrown around by the wind. Tornadoes kill lots but people can get out of the way. Irma may engulf all of Florida perhaps even at the same instant. It’s that big.

  11. Grece says:

    120 mph winds will kill lots of people.

    Actually, the winds attribute very little to personnel deaths Robert. 88% percent of U.S. deaths from hurricanes and tropical storms are from water, not wind.

    http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00074.1

    Will you retract your statement?

  12. Grece says:

    So you admit, you do live in a floodplain, but refuse to move but advise others not build upon one as you have done. Again, you proselytize this and that but in reality you NEVER follow your own damn advice.

  13. Grece wrote, “since you live in the floodplain of the Red River, when are you going to move? The flood of 1997 would have ruined you”.

    No, it wouldn’t. It might have wet the basement. We were many miles from the river. These days there is a floodway and a dike that would keep us dry. Still, if it rained for 40 days and nights… I’d likely have to move 50 miles east or 150 miles west to avoid Ice-Age flooding but that kind of thing advances much more slowly than hurricanes or rivers. I’m a little old to move. Perhaps I would buy a boat…

  14. Grece says:

    Robert, since you live in the floodplain of the Red River, when are you going to move? The flood of 1997 would have ruined you.

  15. oiaohm wrote, ” It is better to avoid evacuations were you can by mandating better buildings.”

    So, you let the poor people in older homes die while the rich party… Homes can last generations and everything that Andrew spared are probably very vulnerable. Even strong buildings made to survive the wind may be vulnerable to flooding and impact from objects thrown around. Not everyone can live in raised bunkers. In the long run people should be forbidden to live in flood plains or hurricane alley. USA will tire of rebuilding the east coast annually if these storms do become routine. And , yes, it’s a bit late to undo all the CO2 dumped in the atmosphere in my lifetime but that’s the only thing that will help the angry sea cool.

  16. oiaohm says:

    http://www.hpw.qld.gov.au/sitecollectiondocuments/newsflash-406-homeowners-guide.pdf

    Robert Pogson 150mph winds is not that bad. That is about 242km/h and by Australian building standards that says a C3 building in good conditions will withstand it no problems.

    The highest rating for a house in Australia C4 what is 310km/h or about 192.63mph.

    Please note a C4 building could fail to the worst recorded cyclone that managed to have a spike out to 408 km/h.

    Why isn’t there wholesale evacuation happening?
    What are the building ratings in that area. If they are C3 and higher construction no point doing evacuations instead instructions to stay put. Biggest risk would be looting not storm damage or death if the buildings are C3 rated.

    Most of the danger comes from people not knowing their house rating. Like anyone in a C2 or lower rated building should be moving to a C3 building with the size of that storm in mind. Also a degraded C3 may no longer have a C3 rating.

    Really evacuations cause a lot of problems due to having to supply food water…. It is better to avoid evacuations were you can by mandating better buildings.

    Evacuation plans have to be planned on quality of building involved.

    Robert Pogson is right with time frame that complete area could be evacuated. But the question is this really required.

    One big thing that is missed is you need bodies on the ground to start clean of dead animals and the like to prevent disease problems. If you evacuate everyone and the roads are damaged returning the people is harder so you end up with a disease mess.

    So the only correct thing is regulation on building standards before you have disasters. Yes the story of the 3 little pigs is still valid years latter. If you are not living in a decent building and a big storm is coming bed down with your friends in stronger building. If you are living in the strong enough building you get you keep your property.

  17. Deaf Spy says:

    they have the wrorld’s most powerful military but they can’t have universal medical care or move people faster than 16mph

    Are you serious or just trolling? This is something so low I can except from Fifi, but from you…

  18. Grece wrote, “Florida cannot evacuate the entire State”.

    I never said the entire state, just a good portion of the south and east. Saying it can’t be done is a lot easier than making a plan. Apologizing for the unnecessary deaths is a lot easier too. Real leaders find a way, like filling unoccupied seats and buying enough tents, food and water to support internal refugees. What is USA, another Syria? USA should be able to do things. They went to Moon. Now they’re planning to go to Mars and they have the wrorld’s most powerful military but they can’t have universal medical care or move people faster than 16mph (Irma’s speed). Sad

  19. Grece says:

    Give it time, Robert will spin the story and blame Trump.

    Doing an armchair analysis from a shithole like Winnipeg is rather unbecoming Robert. Florida cannot evacuate the entire State, about the only thing they can do is move inland and hunker down.

  20. Deaf Spy says:

    Do the maths.

    Yeah, yeah, yeah. Like a do the maths for solar panel array, for ARM server, for ARM thin clients, for electric car… Now it is evacuation.
    Robert, come back when you do more than just the maths.

  21. The Wiz wrote, “Nothing is impossible for the person who does not have to do it themselves.”

    Look. We can do universal healthcare, national elections, food-distribution, a government and an economy. Planning for and preparing for a mass-evacuation is possible. There are X million people and Y lanes of traffic. Do the maths. How many people per hour need to pass a given point to get the job done? Cities are already handling millions of commuters. It’s just a step to getting millions of evacuees going routinely too.

  22. wizard emiritus says:

    Nothing is impossible for the person who does not have to do it themselves.

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