Summer’s Over. Deal With It.

This has been a pretty good summer, compared to a winter with very little snowcover, rabbits eating my orchard and high winds killing my tomatoes in the spring. Much of it has been spent preparing my yard for grass, again, from seed… My first crop three years ago was winter-killed. I’ve chose a more hardy variety this year, based on Kentucky Blue Grass.

We’ve had only one thunder storm that I can recall and very gentle rains otherwise. July actually had a decent amount of rain. August, OTOH, had very little rain and hot dry winds. I’ve had to have sprinklers running almost every day to keep the seed from staying dormant. It’s almost as if our summer has had an extra month of wind added to the spring and July was pushed back to August. Surely the good times will roll now. Surely I will get some gentle rains to coax my seed into life.

The patch I’ve been watering is now full of juvenile grasses some with two leaves, and a mess of weeds I will have to mow soon or they will take over.

Anyway, between attention to watering and some modest harvest of lettuce, radish, potato, pepper and tomato, I’ve watched quite a bit on Netflix. My favourite has been The Martian, a rather silly sci-fi thing about an astronaut abandoned on Mars growing potatoes to stay alive… Yes, it is that silly, and it’s ripe with technical errors like insanely heavy/large equipment to transport that far, huge errors in the atmospheric pressure, zero gravity in a capsule with rocket engines running, failure to conserve angular momentum…. You get it. It’s Hollywood. What I like about it is the story, which is almost plausible, the kinds of things that can go wrong in travelling in space, why we send robots… The music’s not bad either. There’s some disco, ABBA, and Gloria Gaynor’s “I will survive”. Anyway, Netflix is pulling The Martian and replacing it with this schlock.

Right. Nothing of interest here. Move along. Fortunately, there’s fall coming with hunting. Thanks to global warming, it should be long and comfortable, or not…

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
This entry was posted in astronomy, food, horticulture, hunting, technology, weather and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

9 Responses to Summer’s Over. Deal With It.

  1. oiaohm says:

    Robert Pogson 2012 sandy was huge and had a abnormal wind profile. So the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale for damage from wind was wrong in that case.

    Its not the only storm where when the physical ground survey of damage has been done that the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale has been wrong.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale

    Note you have to be category 3 to have major flood damage. So if you look at the ground survey after 2012 sandy in the USA without question category 3 possibly category 4 but the wind speeds did not match that.

    Lot of deaths in the USA were caused because the category number was wrong so actions to prevent people from being caught up in flooding was not done.

    This is a problem wind speed alone is not good enough to provide the information emergency services need. So there needs to be a new way of calculating storm danger more suited to the needs of emergency services.

    Robert Pogson Grece is right that is 3 and above is major. But 3 and above in either the wind speed or the after storm survey is a major storm. Most cases the ground survey and winds match. You do have the odd storm like 2012 Sandy where they don’t match. Most of the time its been that the wind was higher than the resulting damage Sandy is a nasty one where the Wind was lower than the resulting damage.

    Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale (SSHWS) was at first designed to used in reverse. As in look at the damage and calculate the wind speed that did it. We are now attempt to use it the other way of look at the wind speed and guess the damage. We are find that SSHWS not exactly right. SSHWS is still the best scale we have but the two different methods of calculating SSHWS does not always agree with each other. So you do have storms that have more than 1 SSHWS number for a location.

    Sandy 2012 is just one of those conner cases with more than correct answer. Landing in the USA it was 2 or 1 by wind but it was a 3 or 4 by resulting damage. This error means emergency services would have had the wrong response play-book in use for the type of storm they were dealing with. This mistake where is a plan for a weaker storm results in increased loss of life.

    Please note it way more common to be the other way that like a 3 rated storm by wind only do a 2 rated storms damage of course that error does not increase death rate.

  2. Grece wrote, “The Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale lists hurricanes as class three and above as major”.

    No, it does not. It’s just a classification into five classes numerically, not by “major”. NHC provides that appellation and they were wrong about Sandy because it was so huge.

  3. oiaohm says:

    Grece read you own links please. Even that Sandy was only a class 2 it had extremely high fatality rate. The reason for higher death rate was larger than average size. Larger than average size is what happens when the fine particles of global dimming meets higher temperature water caused by global warming.

    One of the expected side effects by the CSIRO model that we are seeing in lower wind speed large cyclones/hurricane and due to the increase rainfall of these systems increased secondary deaths.

    Grece there are two different defines for major for Cyclone/hurricanes. One is the wind speed/damage. One is damage/fatalities/effected population. By damage/fatalities/effected population sandy 2012 was a major.

    Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is designed to attempt to forecast what the damage/fatalities/effected population will be. As your own documentation says Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale an estimate. Basically the final assessment what an cyclones/hurricane is happens after the fact by looking at the aftermath.

    Something else to remember is due to cool water effects sandy 2012 lost its high eye wind speed when it hit the USA. But the out edges was still moving as if the eye speed was still a category 3. This is one of the bugs in Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is it purely is dependent that the eye of the storm does not slow down while the outside of the storm does not to estimate damage. Sandy 2012 is a good example of what is wrong with the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Yes Sandy 2012 manages when doing land fall in the USA to look like a Cat 1-2 storm while doing damage you would expect out of a Cat 3 storm. So there is still a lot of debate caused by sandy 2012 on how storms should be assessed going forwards to hopefully save lives.

  4. Grece says:

    Learn to read you old goat, the emphasis is “major” hurricane. The Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale lists hurricanes as class three and above as major, Sandy was a class two. In fact, there is evidence pointing out that Sandy wasn’t even a hurricane when it made landfall in New Jersey.

    The Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale is a 1 to 5 rating based on a hurricane’s sustained wind speed. This scale estimates potential property damage. Hurricanes reaching Category 3 and higher are considered major hurricanes because of their potential for significant loss of life and damage.

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php

    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tcr/AL182012_Sandy.pdf

  5. Grece, throwing out all his teachers taught him about logic wrote, “Hurricanes and tropical storms are caused by water vapor and is the “fuel” for hurricanes because it releases the “latent heat of condensation” when it condenses to form clouds and rain, warming the surrounding air. Which basically throws your statement out the window, if anything, there would be more hurricanes and tropical storms, but in the past decade there wasn’t any that made landfall on the U.S. Which tosses the notion of “global warming” out the window.”

    Yes, there is a small effect of warming on the frequency of storms but heat alone doesn’t cause storms. They are a product of a combination of things like wind currents, convection as well as condensation. The real energy of storms comes from the condensation of water and cooling of streams of air at altitude, creating a partial vacuum into which other air is pushed. Coriolis’ force produces the rotation. Again, a bit of warming doesn’t necessarily produce more storms just stronger storms. e.g. real hot days may produce dozens of thunderstorms locally but a day a degree or two warmer certainly won’t. It takes more than heat to make a storm. It takes temperature and pressure gradients from mixing streams of air etc.

  6. Grece wrote, “Hurricane Harvey was the first major hurricane to make landfall in the United States since Wilma in 2005, ending a record 12-year period with no major hurricanes making landfall in the United States.”

    Grece is claiming facts not in evidence. Another major hurricane making landfall in USA were Sandy in 2012. In fact, 9 of the top 10 most severe hurricanes have hit USA in my lifetime. Now, I’m not magical nor immortal, just born in the time automobiles went from a rich man’s toy to a consumer item burning all kinds of petroleum. All but two of the most severe Atlantic hurricanes striking USA happened in the last 30 years. Things are getting worse for that kind of thing.

    Of course, Houston is a recipe for disaster with whole developments made inside reservoirs… How could anyone think that was a good idea? Oh, yes, they thought that might be a problem every 100-500 years, but it’s happening almost every year now. You get more rain near the coast when the sea warms. Water runs downhill… In fact, if Houston were picked up and moved a few miles inland, there would have been little or no flooding, not because it didn’t rain there but because the water could run downhill.

  7. Grece says:

    Again global warming does not guarantee longer summers, just more extreme weather in the short term.

    Which extreme weather are you talking about?

    Look at the frequency/strength of hurricanes.

    What frequency Robert? We, meaning the east coast and the gulf, have experienced a severe drought, with respect to hurricanes for the past decade. Hurricane Harvey was the first major hurricane to make landfall in the United States since Wilma in 2005, ending a record 12-year period with no major hurricanes making landfall in the United States.

    Global warming is not expected to have much effect on number of hurricanes and tropical storms but the intensity and rainfall certainly will increase. Hot water just supplies so much more energy to storms by evaporation from the sea and condensation in the upper atmosphere. The sea is warming much faster than the land.

    Ok backup a second. You just said, the sea is warming due to global warming, which leads to evaporation and adds energy to storms, but in the same paragraph it would not lead to much effect on hurricanes and tropical storms. Again, you contradicted yourself, once more Robert!

    Hurricanes and tropical storms are caused by water vapor and is the “fuel” for hurricanes because it releases the “latent heat of condensation” when it condenses to form clouds and rain, warming the surrounding air. Which basically throws your statement out the window, if anything, there would be more hurricanes and tropical storms, but in the past decade there wasn’t any that made landfall on the U.S. Which tosses the notion of “global warming” out the window.

  8. Grece wrote, “wouldn’t summer be still around?”

    I live in Canada. We have for seasons: spring, summer, fall and winter. While we do get some fine weather in April/May and September/October, we can count on June-August being summer. e.g. some things get planted in Spring but lots of stuff will be killed by freezing or high wind if planted before 24 May. That long weekend is when many open the cottage. Similarly, the first weekend in September is an official holiday and cottages get shut down except possibly for hunting/fishing.

    We are having a heat-wave at the moment but it’s just a few days and northerly winds will bring winter closer. I’ve seen killing frost as early as Aug 27 but lately they come as late as October. Again global warming does not guarantee longer summers, just more extreme weather in the short term. Look at the frequency/strength of hurricanes. Warming is still small but huge changes result when you upset the balance of Nature.

    See https://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/global-warming-and-hurricanes/

    Global warming is not expected to have much effect on number of hurricanes and tropical storms but the intensity and rainfall certainly will increase. Hot water just supplies so much more energy to storms by evaporation from the sea and condensation in the upper atmosphere. The sea is warming much faster than the land.

  9. Grece says:

    If there were an animal such as “global warming” Robert, wouldn’t summer be still around? Instead you say summer is over, so again, you are contradicting yourself.

    Looking at the mean temperature for your locale, they have been stable for an awfully long time.

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