Mirage

“Our highly levered financial system is like a truckload of nitro glycerin on a bumpy road,” Gross wrote.”One mistake can set off a credit implosion where holders of stocks, high yield bonds, and yes, subprime mortgages all rush to the bank to claim its one and only dollar in the vault”
 
See Top investor says don’t be fooled by Trump mirage
A lot of talk and no action has inflated investors valuation of equities to the breaking point. Let’s hope the jobs report published tomorrow doesn’t burst the bubble. Still, I’m glad I’m sitting on gold.

According to today’s news, TrumpCare is DOA. It doesn’t please a large enough voting block to pass it. It purports to keep some of the good things about ObamaCare but it doesn’t do anything to fix the bad things in ObamaCare like spiking premiums/declining coverage, and providing health insurance to the poor, millions of them, but still not getting them all. Sure, they can give tax credits the poor can’t use because they don’t have the money to pay for insurance in the first place, and yes they can lower insurance premiums for healthy people by sending sick people to Hell, but they’re capping MedicAid so that won’t work. Guess what? A lot of those poor sick people believed Trump and voted for him. Think they’ll be a little annoyed? Think a -3million vote margin will be big enough next time? What about mid-terms? FAIL!

No. Trump and friends will have to put up or go home. About the only hope of Trump is to convince supporters that Canadian MediCare is the way to go. The Democrats would probably support that. GOP blood-pressure would spike but who cares? He’s a populist, eh? Letting ObamaCare fail is not an option. The next elections are too far away for them to blame Obama. They did promise to do a better job. Get on with it!

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.

This entry was posted in politics and tagged , , , . Bookmark the permalink.

17 Responses to Mirage

  1. oiaohm says:

    It does not..but I think it is hilarious how you apply your school ideology to corporate business. Which are two totally different things.
    Grece true businesses may be even worse. IT management good bad or indifferent is not unique to schools/governments or businesses. Corporate Business can be attempt to cut the budget just as much as schools are so be insanely harder at times to order new fleets of computers.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/oracle/2017/01/17/top-10-strategic-cio-priorities-of-2017/
    Please go and read section 10 of your cite again. This means CEO’s in Corporate Business can become tied up in same level of debate about why should we update the hardware so arguement for a new fleet can take 2 years.

    Grece basically if you had read and understood you own cite you would have stopped this complete dead end agreement line. Yes you have killed this path of attack yourself.

  2. Grece says:

    In many schools it takes two years to order a new fleet of PCs

    It does not..but I think it is hilarious how you apply your school ideology to corporate business. Which are two totally different things.

  3. oiaohm says:

    The same could be said of thin client deployment, especially PXE loading of the OS on the thin clients. Then it’s essentially one server cluster to be managed to control the whole thing. Upgrading hardware for quite a large system can be brought down to a few hours’ work.

    Robert Pogson thin clients are slightly worse than DRBL. Since in DRBL the application is running on the computer in front of the computer the servers supporting DRBL can using cluster file system. Result is the for upgrading hardware in DRBL setup can be done with the bare min in user disturbance. Also a server crash in DRBL as long as the server is part of a cluster can go totally unseen to the ones using the system. Also infection resistance is higher in a DRBL setup than a thin client setup.

    http://www.ccboot.com/ You do see groups do windows versions of DRBL that end up unstable due to Microsoft not supporting running this way. Even so they see massive cost reductions with the one change of not storing the OS on the local machine. Lot of the issues of windows making it own internal errors cannot happen in a network boot set-up. Yes it does not just prevent malware it prevents OS random-ally doing it self harm.

    So a lot of the cost to business is using Microsoft Products and having Microsoft not directly supporting the lowest maintenance options. So creating the 80/20 cost problem. Yes Windows thin-client solution does not protect Microsoft Windows server from self harm. DRBL idea is old and proven cost effective yet people keep on accepting Microsoft making products that don’t support it.

    10/90 split in costs should be possible with Windows as well if Microsoft would come properly on-board. Maybe more business threatening and going Linux will get Microsoft out of IT stone-age deployment methods as only options supported.

  4. Grece wrote, “no CIO pays any attention to at all”.

    Chuckle. That’s because the guy would long since have fired the fool stuck on some ancient version of TOOS. I was never in a school that had the latest version of TOOS despite several of them having a CIO. They ran the machines until they died and then were reluctant to replace them. I dealt with that environment and GNU/Linux was a major component of my tool-chest. I kid you not. In many schools it takes two years to order a new fleet of PCs and then it all depends on what some bureaucrat hundreds of miles away declares is the budget. I was at one place where the principal told me it would take two years to increase ventilation in the “server room”. They had added servers over the years and finally had seven but no ventilation and even in winter they would overheat. Finally, we just left the door open… One or two GNU/Linux servers would have done the job… Turf wars determined that they had to have two servers for databases because the IT-guy would not maintain “his” database on our server. They had two fleets of servers for two versions of TOOS in the clients. They added servers instead of hard drives when they needed more storage… Yes. They had a CIO. He loved Macs but tolerated TOOS and would have nothing to do with GNU/Linux. I used my own PC as the GNU/Linux server for the lab and rescued the old lab with my old version of Beast.

  5. oiaohm wrote, “Those running DRBL those systems get down to a 10/90 split. Even well managed Linux desktops have better than 80/20.”

    The same could be said of thin client deployment, especially PXE loading of the OS on the thin clients. Then it’s essentially one server cluster to be managed to control the whole thing. Upgrading hardware for quite a large system can be brought down to a few hours’ work. I figured out how to do it in one hour for a whole computer lab from XP to GNU/Linux, assuming identical clients. I did it for an old lab once with four kinds of PCs ranging from old to too old and it took three hours. Most of the effort went into getting one or two of the oldest machines to boot, not a likely scenario in anything maintained. They were over ten years old and had really weird video cards where I had to configure X just to make a connection.

  6. Kurkosdr says:

    Most people do not want government intrusion in healthcare, when you include government in anything, the costs always rises.

    Most people used to want the Affordable Care Act, and it was a primary focus of Obama’s campaign, but then they realized how much it costs to insure everyone in the US without limiting how much hospitals can charge (aka what the actual Act did).

    Just to be clear, I think the way forward would be to limit how much hospitals can charge, especially for emergencies where the patient cannot choose to go somewhere else and hence the hospital has a natural monopoly in the surrounding area.

  7. oiaohm says:

    Grece really learn to read. The issues Robert are referring is section 10.
    https://www.forbes.com/sites/oracle/2017/01/17/top-10-strategic-cio-priorities-of-2017/
    Yes in your cite.

    The 80/20 trap of information technology. Those running DRBL those systems get down to a 10/90 split. Even well managed Linux desktops have better than 80/20.

    Part of dealing with 80/20 trap is considering other methods of deploying operating systems and keeping system more unified with simpler updating processes.

  8. Grece says:

    stuff like malware, monopolistic pricing, BSODs, re-re-reboots…

    All of which, no CIO pays any attention to at all. The things you continually harp on in this blog, are of no consequence. Read the Forbes article, no where does it state the items you grumble about.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/oracle/2017/01/17/top-10-strategic-cio-priorities-of-2017/

  9. oiaohm says:

    What would be the cost of Linux in Canada if we turned it over to a hundred IT companies?
    Choosing Microsoft does not mean you don’t have hundred IT companies with their hand out to be paid to-do support.

    What would be the cost of every village running their Linux operating system?
    Malaysia is the one you look at for these. Lower operating cost. Not just lower operating cost for the government but also lower operating cost for all companies having to-do business with the government due to being able to have matching software to the government at no cost and not having failures due to miss matched software.

    Some things just work better run by Microsoft with economies of scale, jurisdiction, and cost.
    So this is total crap does not match to any of the data from Malaysia or French deployments. Do read Microsoft EULA they include we have no legal responsibility if anything goes wrong. So with Open source software you can in fact have a party in your jurisdiction who is selling you support who does have to take responsibility with no ability to blame someone else for the problem since they have the right to repair the code.

    The big problem with Microsoft software is kind over jurisdiction. Basically who takes legal responsibility when something does not work. Normally the support company blames Microsoft for a fault they cannot fix and Microsoft blames the support company or refers you to the EULA clauses so leaving you in no mansland.

    Economies of scale this is also bogus because from a development team size the Open source world makes Microsoft look small. So you are fairly much left with cost arguments but then it also the slightly higher cost of OSS can be offset by the ones you paying by contract having to take legal responsibility with no means to finger point their way out of it.

  10. Grece wrote, “Some things just work better run by Microsoft with economies of scale, jurisdiction, and cost.”

    Sure, stuff like malware, monopolistic pricing, BSODs, re-re-reboots…

  11. Grece says:

    Well Bob, the very same thing could be said about Linux. Think about what you just said.

    What would be the cost of every village running their Linux operating system? What would be the cost of Linux in Canada if we turned it over to a hundred IT companies? Some things just work better run by Microsoft with economies of scale, jurisdiction, and cost.

  12. Grece wrote, “Most people do not want government intrusion in healthcare, when you include government in anything, the costs always rises.”

    What would be the cost of every village running their own army, navy and air-force? What would be the cost of MediCare in Canada if we turned it over to a hundred insurance companies? Some things just work better run by government with economies of scale, jurisdiction, and cost. Before MediCare, we had no insurance or every doctor needed a different form for every insurance company. Every doctor had to “collect bills”. Often the doctor was not paid and life-expectancy was lower. I remember farmers seriously discussing whether to pay the vet or wive’s doctors. Health, like life, is one thing government can have a strong hand in protecting. I know governments can do badly but that’s why we have democracy so we can have a say in governing. It works for healthcare. Canada has longer life-expectancy, lower costs by a long shot yet you nattering nabobs of negativism keep saying it isn’t so. USA is larger and richer than Canada. If we can afford universal healthcare and like the result, so can you.

  13. Grece says:

    Most people do not want government intrusion in healthcare, when you include government in anything, the costs always rises. Your logic is paradoxical. In one hand you want government healthcare, but on the other hand complain about costs. Typical liberal.

  14. DrLoser, continuing to lose, wrote, ” there’s no reason to imagine that it will necessarily rise from there into the stratosphere. Trump has done just about as much initial damage as he can, and gold as a “safe option” is no longer quite what it was.”

    Read my lips… no tax-cuts, no universal healthcare, rising costs of healthcare, no wall, increasing overseas shenanigans… POOF! Trumpism comes tumbling down along with DJIA, USD,… The national debt will skyrocket, no doubt after all his infrastructure spending… What part of not tax-cuts and increased spending don’t Trumpists understand?

    Further, 24million Trumpists will lose healthcare by 2026… and $880billion reduction in MedicAid over the next decade. Think those folks won’t vote out GOP next elections??? Chuckle. Trump can’t do maths and rejects the concept. He believes in the Easter Bunny. His Mommy told him all about it…

  15. DrLoser says:

    Still, I’m glad I’m sitting on gold.

    Probably not very much of it, otherwise you would be doing a “Viking” and cutting a chunk off to pay for Beast Mark II.

    Not that it matters. Sitting on gold is not a particularly sophisticated strategy, Robert. I’m not going to go into the details of alphas, betas, or indeed even basic diversification, so let’s cut to the chase: gold is a very, very, fungible asset.

    As a random (yet professional) futures market prognostication, see here. You will note that the futures price of gold has dropped by about $90, or 8 per cent, since roughly when The Donald was elected.

    And there’s no reason to imagine that it will necessarily rise from there into the stratosphere. Trump has done just about as much initial damage as he can, and gold as a “safe option” is no longer quite what it was.

    In fact, I’d have to admit that you were very smart/lucky to invest in gold for as long as you did. But you know what the smart option right now is?

    Sell now, at a point that looks like it’s just after the market peaked. Pick a solid currency basket of choice (mix, say, USD and Euros and Sterling, and Sterling is just a theory of mine on the grounds that my government cannot bugger it up any further over the next two years), and I think you’ll find that basket will outperform gold.

    Not guaranteed of course. But in this case I have your interests entirely at heart. I seriously suggest that you consider such a strategy.

  16. Grece says:

    The “real” story in the article is the fact, that Gross is worried about the amount of credit outstanding in the U.S.” This has been a problem for decades, and Trump has nothing to do with it, he’s just inherited it, but solving the problem will be VERY painful. Just like when you get a junkie of their drug fix, it damn near kills them.

    Government provided healthcare is not the responsibility of the government of America.

  17. Kurkosdr says:

    About the high-leverage thing in the green text, Trump wants to bring back the Glass-Steagal act. He probably won’t manage to get it through Senate or Congress, but just the fact he brought it to the attention of the public is a big thing.

    Make what you want out of that.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *