Shipments of Smartphones Will Slow – Almost Everyone Has One

“According to a recent forecast update from the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, 2015 is likely to be the last year of double-digit smartphone growth. The 2015 calendar year finished with 1.44 billion smartphone shipments worldwide, which were up 10.4% over 2014. IDC’s most recent projections show 2016 shipments of 1.5 billion, or 5.7% growth over 2015. The trend of single-digit year-over-year growth is expected throughout the forecast with volumes growing to 1.92 billion in 2020. The market will continue to see volumes shifting to the low end with the aggregate market average selling price (ASP) dropping from $295 in 2015 to $237 in 2020.”
 
See Smartphone Growth Expected to Drop to Single Digits in 2016, Led by China’s Transition from Developing to Mature Market
It had to happen. The popularity of smartphones has caused nearly every one who could afford one to have one. The only way to continue rapid selling is to cut prices or introduce “must have” features and those will happen in a big way in 2016. On the one hand, smartphones will become competitive with desktops and notebooks in performance and on the other, last year’s superb smartphone will find its way into this year’s “bargain bin”. Despite the slowdown, smartphones sell in greater volume annually than the whole installed base of legacy PCs…

It’s probably time I bought a new one. Mine is so old (2010) it has 512MB RAM and can’t install many of the latest apps like the AliExpress Shopping App, one of my favourite channels from China. It’s also has a rather short lifetime for the charge on the battery and miserable resolution on the camera. A typical low end smartphone these days has 4-6 times as much RAM and runs the CPU 4-6 times faster and has two cameras, one forward at 13 MegaPixels and the other rearward at 5MP. They can play hours of video on a single charge. All one has to do is wait a few months and they can all be bought at a discount. In the struggle to ship units at ever lower prices, I expect a replacement for Beast will come around, using similar technology but designed to be docked or desktopped.

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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13 Responses to Shipments of Smartphones Will Slow – Almost Everyone Has One

  1. oiaohm says:

    Neel
    All the new x86 motherboards come with this Wintel restriction, that Microsoft has to sign the Bootloader or your OS will NOT run.
    Not true. There are a lot of motherboards that can come without any keys installed.
    https://wiki.ubuntu.com/SecurityTeam/SecureBoot
    Delete the PK out of most motherboards and they will boot without checking what the loader is signed with to allow you to generate your own sets and in-load your own sets.

    UEFI is a pain to have to clear the PK and make a new set of keys but it does not in fact prevent using other OSs.

    For example Ubuntu ‘Canonical Ltd. Master Certificate Authority’ key in KEK has there own key that is not Microsoft. Now a motherboard with a PK of the users with the Canonical key in the KEK and no Microsoft key in there will not boot Windows but will run Ubuntu perfectly fine. Yes UEFI is a double sided sword so a Linux only laptop or desktop may in fact refuse to run Windows. The OS that a UEFI system will accept is purely decided what is approved by the PK and is in the KEK. If the PK is nothing the KEK is nothing so default state is everything approved. When a OEM buys a motherboard from ODM its possible to get them PK and KEK unset so you can set the as order requires.

  2. Neel says:

    “kurkosdr says:
    PPS: Why do so many Desktop Linux fans are fans of white boxes and old laptops? (almost always re-purposed windows laptops, instead of something like system76) ”

    …because of the restrictions from Wintel UEFI Secure Boot.
    All the new x86 motherboards come with this Wintel restriction, that Microsoft has to sign the Bootloader or your OS will NOT run.

  3. oiaohm says:

    luvr its not like DrLoser to know the topic before typing crap.
    https://lwn.net/Articles/676831/
    systemd/docker/systemd is possible. So its not a either or. You do want syslogs out of postgresql running of course. Not the magical I am docker alone I make them disappear like vapor.

  4. luvr says:

    DrLoser wrote, “Perhaps the Great Unwashed Masses will now come round to the obvious conclusion that an 8-core ARM smartphone with (tendentious) Gnu/Linux/Android capacities is better used as a home server running PostgreSQL on a Docker instance featuring Debian (not, The Lord Be Praised, systemd) as the Free Operating System of choice.”

    Be careful what you wish for–it just might come true! 🙂

    I am a bit puzzled by the “not systemd” interjection, though, given that Debian made the switch to systemd.

  5. oiaohm says:

    Perhaps the Great Unwashed Masses will now come round to the obvious conclusion that an 8-core ARM smartphone with (tendentious) Gnu/Linux/Android capacities is better used as a home server running PostgreSQL on a Docker instance featuring Debian (not, The Lord Be Praised, systemd) as the Free Operating System of choice.
    DrLoser you still have not watched the video about Project Axel yet. Or you would not have written this.

    https://wiki.postgresql.org/wiki/AndroidAppContest

    Postgresql on Android is not new. Postgresql turns out to be a common database used by a long list of pacemaker companies for their home server software to record and send data. Yes those with medical inplants have choice between server at home running Postgresql or Mobile phone instead of server running Postgresql.

    Those with a pacemaker the fact that glibc based software can run on Android has in fact saved some of their lives. 8 core phone might seam like overkill but not that much if you have a implant and you need to phone to be able to quickly look at the data coming from you implant and make judgment call to auto call medical assistance or not. So yes some cases powerful mobile phone is more useful in server role than a home server.

  6. oiaohm says:

    kurkosdr
    PPS: Why do so many Desktop Linux fans are fans of white boxes and old laptops? (almost always re-purposed windows laptops, instead of something like system76) It just comes with the territory, much like iPhone users and annual upgrades.

    There are answers to this you will not exactly want to hear.

    Name the biggest whitebox buyers. Google, Amazon and Facebook. So white box usage is not Linux Desktop fans only. This goes all the way into Linux server usage for fairly much the same reasons.

    1) Whitebox builders normally have enough parts on hand to build system quickly without any Linux incompatible parts. Retail box computer you have to check model details to know if has incompatible parts or not. So confirming if a computer is buy-able or not for a Linux user takes longer than having one custom built. One number difference in a prebuilt computers model number can make the difference between one that runs well with Linux and one that does not run at all.
    2) Not having to pay the money for the Windows license so turn those dollars into hardware.

    If Microsoft wanted to increase Windows OS containing machine sales in Retail market mandate as part of certification for Windows OS sticker certify to run particular Linux. So white box is mostly that it too much hard work working out what prebuilt is Linux compatible if you can avoid it. Laptops Linux guys cannot avoid that prebuilt.

    –old laptops?– Go to a linux conference and run a survey on how they acquired their laptops. You will find almost 100 percent were bought new. Second hand is highly frowned on due to dependability issues with laptops.

    Main reason Linux people are running old laptops is they simply have not felt the need to update. Old laptop running current OS and software so why change what works.

    Why did they buy a windows laptop instead of system76 or the like was 1 of 3 things.
    1) There current laptop broke and they need replacement quickly and could not wait on shipping so bought a Linux compatible laptop from store.
    2) The laptop was bought as part of a company big order since other people wanted Windows they got Windows as well even that they never use it. Mind you most case they were successfully able to push for a Linux Compatible laptop. So you have to wonder if the most popular laptops bought by business also turn out to be the Linux compatible ones that requires different research.
    3) They need to dual boot.

    And that is in order of percentages and number 3 is becoming rare as most if they need Windows just run it in a Virtual machine.

    kurkosdr the reality is Linux people like new hardware as much as the next person. The reason why they are with old hardware so much is the OS does not force them to hardware update as much.

  7. kurkosdr says:

    …aand Firefox is going for bad to worse. Glad I moved to Chrome. But shame on Desktop Linux for letting a user space process DoS the whole system.

    PS: I forgot to ask: What Android version is your (small cheap computer) smartphone running? If it’s Android 2.3, it’s as if you are running Windows 3.1 in an era when most are running Windows 9x and some are even moving to Windows 2000. Have you invested at all in your IT lately Pog? All your posts revolve around Beast and recommendations for other people to buy.

    PPS: Why do so many Desktop Linux fans are fans of white boxes and old laptops? (almost always re-purposed windows laptops, instead of something like system76) It just comes with the territory, much like iPhone users and annual upgrades.

  8. dougman says:

    Re: Yet one more Year Of Desktop Linux passes us all by, regrettably.

    Desktop Linux is has been with us for sometime now, just not in the format you are looking for.

  9. dougman says:

    Just like PCs have sales have slowed and M$ Windows adoption has slowed, everyone has one and begrudgingly hates using the infernal thing.

  10. DrLoser wrote, “Perhaps the Great Unwashed Masses will now come round to the obvious conclusion that an 8-core ARM smartphone with (tendentious) Gnu/Linux/Android capacities is better used as a home server running PostgreSQL on a Docker instance featuring Debian (not, The Lord Be Praised, systemd) as the Free Operating System of choice.”

    That’s kind of limiting what GNU/Linux on ARM can do for people. They will also have a raft of desktop applications and services of many kinds working for them. I doubt most “normal” people will have a use for Docker but almost everyone can use a browser or office suite even if it’s just to keep asynchronous contact with the kids or create a “lost kitten” ad.

    For the amusement of DrLoser, I will report what I consider a regression in GNU/Linux here. Today, I approached Beast to check up on my pension portfolio and found Beast thrashing like mad. It turned out FireFox had run amok grabbing all available RAM. I could not regain control from the keyboard. I shut down TLW’s thin client to kill her processes she left idling. I still could not log in from another PC on the LAN. Beast was just too damned busy. Finally, I pushed Beast’s power button to get it’s attention. It put up a “log out” screen which I cancelled and resumed computing. Sigh. That’s uglier than the old behaviour on my first Pentium I systems back so many years. I guess I will have to put up some kind of watchdog to kill off FireFox in the future. Perhaps systemd will now actually be useful to me… I hate JavaScript, offically. Why should a piece of text on some server whose site I visit consume all my RAM resource just idling?

    As a start, I put a little script in root’s crontab to identify all firefox processes and put 15 into /proc/*/oom_adj to make firefox the prime candidate to kill. I think I should also watch swapping because this paralysis seems to come from swapping. “for f in `pidof firefox`;do echo 15 > /proc/$f/oom_adj;done”

    Oh, yeah. My portfolio is up 12% despite the stock markets being down 7% and drawing a pension from it since I took charge. I like that.

  11. DrLoser says:

    Perhaps the Great Unwashed Masses will now come round to the obvious conclusion that an 8-core ARM smartphone with (tendentious) Gnu/Linux/Android capacities is better used as a home server running PostgreSQL on a Docker instance featuring Debian (not, The Lord Be Praised, systemd) as the Free Operating System of choice.

    Come on, Robert, you have been proselytising this future for two or three years. It only takes One Man, Closing All The Windows, to demonstrate a Reference Implementation.

    You are wise and knowledgeable, Old Father Robert, and more importantly, if you can spare 500 hours on fixing up some cruddy tractor substitute from the PRC, you can surely spare 100 hours on this, quite obviously trivial, task. It is your calling!

    Better still: why not just write up a proposal including requirements and a Road Map. Pass it on to oiaohm. He will know how to implement that proposal.

    … Or, alternatively, it isn’t gonna happen is it? Never mind. Yet one more Year Of Desktop Linux passes us all by, regrettably.

  12. oiaohm says:

    kurkosdr before google the mobile market stalled as well.

    This is not a battle that we can call fully over.

    Only way to get growth is be able to offer some feature the current phones cannot do well that the users want. Ubuntu and others are attempting todo this.

  13. kurkosdr says:

    It’s probably time I bought a new one. Mine is so old (2010) it has 512MB RAM and can’t install many of the latest apps like the AliExpress Shopping App,

    Lol wut? An decent LG and Samsung can be had for less than 100 bucks on ebay… It just shows how little FOSSies really care about small cheap computers. For them, white boxes (“beasts”) and old laptops are the world.

    As regards topic, the mobile OS war is over, it’s sad Google walked away with everything instead of seeing a nice battle between MS and Google (Apple is a boutique manufacturer and is not really competition). On the other hand, I am glad the WinDiv got a swift kick in the buttocks so they won’t take devs as granted next time…

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