I had a chuckle yesterday. Rand Paul, one of the GOP candidates stated that the polls were “off” because many young people use smartphones…
I’ve been thinking of this for hours and it occurred to me that Paul is correct. The Donald has been the “front runner” in the polls lately but his supporters tend to be less-educated and older… Oh-oh! Rand Paul, Bernie Sanders and other though have a better connection with younger/more educated folks, you know, the ones with smartphones glued to their hips. The pollsters are likely dialling landlines. The youngsters’ smartphone-numbers may not be in their databases. Ordinarily, I’d say this was a small effect except that The Donald just bowed out of the next debate in Iowa, probably thinking he has a solid lead and has nothing to lose… Instead, a lot of those keen university students with smartphones may well tune in to make their final decision, and Trump won’t even be there. What a difference an operating system can make. What a difference ignoring technology can make.
I noticed too that Trump pays a lot of attention to polls but is utterly ignorant of technology. He was saying that Bloomberg is a “phony” rich guy because his wealth depends on a single technology and could evaporate with a sudden change of technology. Clearly Trump doesn’t get it, that the world has moved on from landlines, and it matters. Just like desktop operating systems, if one is making $millions per annum from using some technology, there isn’t much pressure to change the technology even if it costs $thousands per annum. Bloomberg gets that. Trump doesn’t. Youngsters and Trump’s competitors get that smartphones are as vital as air these days. Trump doesn’t.
UPDATE The results are
inmuddled. Despite having tested and trained in the use of M$’s new software for reporting to HQ the results in real time, the parties mumbled that 10% of caucuses had “insufficient staff” and had to rely on consensus by the candidates to get the final results. 16h later there is still ~1% uncertainty, not enough to matter to the order of finish, Cruz first, Trump second, Rubio third, nearly an even split in delegates… So much for Trump’s invincibility/winner-status. The Democrats are little better. Despite far fewer candidates, the margin of Clinton over Sanders is less than the uncertainty in polling results… With such tiny margins in the results, everything must have mattered despite what pundits/fans/apologists proclaimed.