Yes, Folks, The Reign Of Wintel Has Ended

It used to be that Wintel could count on 10% per annum growth year after year, reflecting utter dependence by the world’s population. Today, the story is much different. There have been years of lower growth and now IDC forecasts a further dramatic decline in 2015 and less than 300million units of legacy PCs to be shipped annually for the future.

This means Wintel has become a niche product depended upon only by a static population of slaves. This means the steadily growing shipments and installations of GNU/Linux will become ever more prominent. FLOSS will take its place in the last remaining domain of Wintel, the desktop. The dramatic trend in GNU/Linux page-views seen on StatCounter may well continue for years. IDC reports, “Although portions of the market saw genuine improvements in demand during the second half of 2014, part of the 4Q14 volume was inflated by an inventory build-up of “Windows 8.1 + Bing” systems in anticipation of Microsoft scaling back subsidies in early 2015. IDC expects the short term impact to hit consumer channels as they work to clear stock.” Chuckle. M$ has to pay people to distribute their client OS. Wintel may not be dead but it’s a sick, tired, bedridden old man.

See IDC Lowers PC Outlook for 2015, While the Long-Term Outlook Improves Slightly

Intel agrees: “Intel has lowered its revenue forecast for the first quarter of its fiscal 2015 by nearly a billion dollars, citing a weaker than expected PC market.”
See Pathetic PC sales just cost us a BILLION dollars, cries Intel.

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.

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27 Responses to Yes, Folks, The Reign Of Wintel Has Ended

  1. dougman says:

    Grandfather say, “Yonah no speak for rest of the world”, as the general consensus is that Windows 8 UI is a POS.

    You must download additional software, to make your additional software functional properly.

  2. Mats Hagglund says:

    I have found rather impressive increase of Linux in several websites using gostats.com counter. For my blogsite Linux marketshare grew to 16-17% (two years ago less than 9%) . Android got some 50% of whole Linux and mobiles have grown very fast during the last 12 months (from 8% to 21%). So more and more blogsites have been red by mobile devices. Even with pc Linux has marketshare of 10-11% which is about +3% growth during the last 12 months.

  3. LinuxGentlesir says:

    LOL, sayeth the FOSSie when virtualization is eating away at “the linux web-servers that run the internets”.

    It has gotten to the point that even Microsoft’s Azure is a major GNU/Linux provider!

  4. kurkosdr says:

    Microsoft might stick around for a long time milking their legacy products but they are no longer relevent as an industry player.

    LOL, sayeth the FOSSie when virtualization is eating away at “the linux web-servers that run the internets”.

  5. Yonah says:

    Dougman, I’ve told you before. I like Windows 8! You don’t speak for me and you certainly don’t speak for everyone. Unlike the fat kid making YouTube videos out of his dorm room, I had no trouble with Windows 8, but these people are beyond help. I saw a video with one kid complaining for a full 10 minutes because he didn’t want the sports tile included on the Windows 8 Start Screen. I guess it was too hard for him to right click it and remove it. Once my father took me to an Amiga user’s group. One guy was swearing up a storm because he didn’t like the palette changes to the new Workbench 2.0. The more things change, the more they stay the same.

  6. LinuxGentlesir says:

    Microsoft might stick around for a long time milking their legacy products but they are no longer relevent as an industry player. I say Google, Apple, even Oracle and IBM have a brighter future.

  7. DrLoser says:

    Market saturated? Perhaps in UK but, after the DOT com crash they said the very same thing. So they got it wrong, what makes you a special snowflake?

    Nothing at all, really, Dougster. Just a simple observation that four years (two “forecast”) at and around 300 million units is … well …

    How difficult is it to recognise a saturated market acting as a cash-cow when it’s staring you in the face, Dougie?

    Oh, I forgot. You have commendably left your “education” until a point, later in life, when your activities as a small-town snake-oil salesman (NAS devices, webcams, all that sort of hi-value stuff, possibly with a Spud-U-Like side order) have accumulated enough money to actually learn something.

    Well, we all live in hope. Good luck, Dougster!

  8. DrLoser says:

    Re: If you are still using Windows you have a very low opinion of yourself.

    Classic passive-aggressive comment there, young Dougster. You should be a psychiatrist.

    Or, alternatively, a patient. There are programs in Medical Experimentation that pay quite well, I understand.

  9. dougman says:

    Re: If you are still using Windows you have a very low opinion of yourself.

    LOL… I been saying that for years. People bitch and whine about the problems, but #1 people refuse to take responsibility for themselves, rise up and fix it #2 are too lazy to learn and #3 are most just too ignorant to care.

    Eh.

  10. dougman says:

    Market saturated? Perhaps in UK but, after the DOT com crash they said the very same thing. So they got it wrong, what makes you a special snowflake?

    http://www.nytimes.com/2000/10/09/business/signs-of-market-saturation-in-pc-world.html

    Considering this: http://www.internetlivestats.com/internet-users/ we are ONLY half-way to achieveing total market saturation.

    On the upside, less Desktop machines will be sold with Win-Dohs and other devices will take up the slack, other devices that do not run M$ software.

  11. DrLoser says:

    .There’s a reason desktops and notebooks are stagnating. Folks are using those other small cheap computers more and the desktop/notebooks less.

    No, the reason that sales are stagnating is because the market is saturated. You might wish for a steep decline, Robert, but what you are actually seeing is “stagnation.”

    Stagnation is a typical feature of the cash-cow sector of a market. What part of this obvious fact do you not understand?

  12. dougman says:

    I have a Xeon E3 in my NAS downstairs, it hums right along 24×7 no hiccups, serves movies over PLEX and barely gets warm.

  13. Deaf Spy says:

    “And then there’s the real star, the Xeon E3-1230L v3. It does not live up to the promise of staying below 25W, but the performance surpassed our expectations. The result is – even if you take into account the extra power for the chipset – an amazing performance/watt ratio. The end conclusion is that the introduction of the Xeon-D, which is basically an improved Xeon E3 with integrated PCH, will make it very hard for any competitor to beat the higher-end (20-40W TDP) Intel SoCs in performance/watt in a wide range of “scale-out” applications.”
    http://anandtech.com/show/8357/exploring-the-low-end-and-micro-server-platforms/18

  14. LinuxGentlesir says:

    I’m glad that we are seeing the sunset on this dark chapter of human history. A new dawn awaits.

  15. DrLoser wrote, “As a cash-cow, desktops and laptops appear to be doing just fine as far as the coffers of the Evil Ones in Redmond are concerned.”

    There’s a reason desktops and notebooks are stagnating. Folks are using those other small cheap computers more and the desktop/notebooks less. There’s less reason to buy a new one and less reason to replace an old one. There’s no reason to believe M$’s “agreementsextortions” have much life. Patents expire. e.g. FAT – the ‘517 patent expires of old age next month and it is a software patent which is probably invalid. Expect to see that in the 10-Q if it’s “material”. The ‘352 patent is either dead already (filed in 1993) or due to die soon by publication date.

    I expect the imminent death of those patents was one of the considerations of Samsung and others. I expect M$ will be forever damaged in their eyes by such bullying. Expect Samsung and others to find every opportunity to twist the knife. M$ is like a house-guest overstaying his welcome.

  16. DrLoser says:

    Meanwhile competitors are selling more than a billion units annually…

    Ignoring the regrettable fact that this is also a M$ cash-cow at something like $5 per for “intellectual property,” whatever that might be, Robert, we are no longer discussing the issue described in your OP.

    Your OP talks about desktops and laptops. Your OP does not talk about phones.

    As a cash-cow, desktops and laptops appear to be doing just fine as far as the coffers of the Evil Ones in Redmond are concerned.

  17. DrLoser wrote, “Provided the shipments per year hang around 300 million, you get to cash in on the margin with very little effort. Ker-ching!”

    Meanwhile competitors are selling more than a billion units annually… That makes M$ just another player, not the market leader. Further, PCs are lasting longer these days. 300million might be an over-estimate. Assuming there is a static base of 1.5billion legacy PCs, 300 million represents a 5 year lifetime. If the lifetime changed to 10 years, the number of shipments goes down to 150million. The world can soak up billions more small cheap computers without that other OS. I see a bleak future for M$’s client division in the long term. Maybe they will just become a bank or a pension fund instead of an IT-company.

  18. DrLoser says:

    Suuure DogBrain, I believe that like you believe me, eh?

    Do be fair to the Dougster, oldfart. There’s nothing so tidy as a nice round number.

    Say, $100?

    It would pay for his dumpster-diving tetanus shot.

  19. DrLoser says:

    This means Wintel has become a niche product depended upon only by a static population of slaves.

    Actually, Robert, it simply means that the market for desktop/laptop devices is pretty much saturated, and has been for some time. In marketing terms, this is known as a “cash cow.” Provided the shipments per year hang around 300 million, you get to cash in on the margin with very little effort. Ker-ching!

    And while you’re doing that, you develop new streams of revenue and profit.

    Nice of you to consider ~1.2 billion consumers of desktop computing (assuming a four year deprecation cycle) “slaves,” though. We “slaves” still beat out “blood-sucking drones” by a factor of 50-1 …

  20. oldfart says:

    ” If you are still using Windows you have a very low opinion of yourself.”

    Actually , I have a very high opinion of the software that I use. I could care less about OS cosmetics so long as it runs my applications.

  21. oldfart says:

    “I retired from that line of work and sold it off to a competitor for a tidy sum. ”

    Suuure DogBrain, I believe that like you believe me, eh?

  22. oldfart says:

    “Farting Oldman, go back to your pushbroom and pseudo-symphony, before you perish of 1000 reboots.”

    Ah DogBrain, You are so quaint. My system reboots once per month in the wee hours, just like it and its predecessors have for quite some time now.

    Pseudo-Symphony – its no more pseudo than the rest of the music world that uses synthesized instruments. Where have YOU been sir? I guess such knowledge comes with a GED.

  23. matchrocket says:

    I viewed that video that dougman linked to plus one more that showed up. I knew Windows 8 was bad, but I had no idea it was that bad. All I can say is that people who stick with Microsoft have a very high tolerance for abuse. No, really. Windows 8 should have been the end of the line. If you are still using Windows you have a very low opinion of yourself.

  24. dougman says:

    When Brian spoke of the farting gremlin, it reminded me of Farting Oldman.

    *POOT*…hahhaha… I distract thee!

    Well, the first rule of addiction recovery is agreeing that you are an addict. Having just admitted that you’re a slave, I call that an excellent first step.

    Cheeapskate?…saving money is being a cheapskate?

    Moocher?…considering I never bother you for anything, I find that term disingenuous, as YOU’RE the one always begging for further information, when you could just use Google. But wait, they use Linux too!

    Snakeoil salesman? Obviously you missed the memo, I retired from that line of work and sold it off to a competitor for a tidy sum.

    Farting Oldman, go back to your pushbroom and pseudo-symphony, before you perish of 1000 reboots.

  25. oldfart says:

    ““Wintel has become a niche product depended upon only by a static population of slaves.” I could not have said it better.”

    Yep us slaves just get our work done without the religious baggage from a cheapskate and his snake oil salesman.

    “Hilarious! It clearly shows the slave-master does not know best.”

    Thus spake the cheapskate and moocher.

  26. Dougman wrote, “No one likes Windows 8!”

    Hilarious! It clearly shows the slave-master does not know best.

  27. dougman says:

    “Wintel has become a niche product depended upon only by a static population of slaves.” I could not have said it better.

    No one likes Windows 8!

    Dated video, but explains the reasons.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WTYet-qf1jo

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