One of the key elements of the Wintel plan for monopoly for desktops, bundling the OS with every PC shipped is coming undone.“Scheduling delays and weakened consumer demand for notebook PC replacements are forcing leading PC brands—including Apple, ASUS, HP, Lenovo, Samsung, Sony, and Toshiba—to reduce notebook PC shipments for 2014. According to the NPD DisplaySearch Quarterly Mobile PC Value Chain and Insight Report, the 2014 shipment estimate for the top nine notebook PC brands is 134 million, which is a decrease from the previously estimated 152 million units.” Meanwhile */Linux will ship on more than a billion devices sold to consumers as portable IT and even desktop IT.
“In terms of product design, low-priced notebook PCs with screen sizes between 14” and 15.6”, which are expected to sell for $299, will not be ready before June 2014. None of those models will include touch capabilities, so the touch penetration rate could be less than the 15% estimated for 2014. In addition, notebook PCs with the Duo OS concept, which were created by Intel and PC brands, have been cancelled because Microsoft and Google no longer support the concept.”
Further, Wintel cannot even compete on price/performance at the low end because M$ charges way too much for licensing and restricting the freedom of users to use the hardware they buy to fullest potential. That just won’t fly any longer. There are OEMs who want to compete selling small cheap computers of every kind and they will ship Android/Linux, Chrome OS/Linux and GNU/Linux in 2014. You can bet on that. Margins are too small in this segment to pay the Wintel tax. Meanwhile, tablets, where Wintel has a tiny share is predicted to reach 300 million units in 2014 and 400 million by 2016.