Shuttleworth Closes Ubuntu’s Bug #1

Accepting that current OS markets have a lot more competition than in 2004 when he filed the bug, Mark Shuttleworth closed it with this parting shot:
“Personal computing today is a broader proposition than it was in 2004: phones, tablets, wearables and other devices are all part of the mix for our digital lives. From a competitive perspective, that broader market has healthy competition, with IOS and Android representing a meaningful share see http://www.zdnet.com/windows-has-fallen-behind-apple-ios-and-google-android-7000008699/ and in particular http://cdn-static.zdnet.com/i/r/story/70/00/008699/meeker620-620×466-620×466.jpg?hash=ZQxmZmDjAz&upscale=1.”
see Comment #1834 : Bug #1 liberation : Bugs : Ubuntu

Of course, I disagree. That Wintel is dominating retail shelves in much of the world of notebook and desktop computers without competing on price/performance is still a bug, an annoying and expensive bug. It’s only a partial solution that other modes of computing exist which M$ doesn’t dominate like smartphones, tablets, thin clients etc. There is still a need to use notebooks and desktops running amd64/x86 hardware for 10-20% of purposes and it’s a shame to pay twice as much just because some robber-barrons want to continue living in the manner to which they have become accustomed. It’s not just about money either, but performance, flexibility and accessibility of this kind of IT. Having M$ dominate that part of the market does a lot of harm.

On the hardware side, ARM is now intruding into notebook/desktop space and has adequate computing power for many more tasks than just a few years ago but it’s still not getting a fair shot at retail shelves. It’s just silly that if you want a keyboard on a computer that you must choose Wintel.

No thanks, Mark. I will continue the fight as long as I can whether it is convenient to continue or not. Wintel survives on ignorance. That, at least, I can fight. For anyone who still doesn’t know, I recommend Debian GNU/Linux for most computing. It’s a universal operating system that has been installed on all kinds of ARM or amd64/x86 systems and you don’t have to pay an unknown tax to M$ for permission to use the hardware you bought if you use Debian.

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.

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30 Responses to Shuttleworth Closes Ubuntu’s Bug #1

  1. Maou Sadao wrote, “you and Mr. Pogson will die sooner than Microsoft.”

    M$ doesn’t need to die. It needs to be broken up. Whether a drastic drop in market-share will cause that is doubtful. Governments do seem to charge them with their crimes a decade too late however.

  2. oiaohm says:

    Maou Sadao even that I said this behaviour is common before the end of a company.

    Does not mean it always results in end of company.

    The one thing we can be sure there will be a correction. Increased entry price will result in less new customers.

    Everything Microsoft is doing at the moment is creating ticking time bombs. The question is when will they go off.

  3. Maou Sadao says:

    This behaviour is common before the end of a company.

    I think you and Mr. Pogson will die sooner than Microsoft. “Microsoft” will probably be the last word you both utter before your souls depart. Then you can find out if God uses FLOSS..

  4. oiaohm says:

    bw the sad reality is if you read the Microsoft report properly you can work out where the Server increased income is coming from.

    –driven by double-digit revenue growth in SQL Server and more than 20% growth in System Center revenue. —

    Microsoft has been doing away with the cheaper versions of SQL Server and increase price compared to prior versions.

    This is gouging the market. Revenue growth yes not market share growth.

    Gouging the market is a short term profit making method.

    bw really this is your big problem you have not looked at MS product costs. Its most likely will not be sustainable. This behaviour is common before the end of a company.

  5. jason says:

    “Close enough for me”

    That’s not market share, that’s revenue, even Ballmer admitted that Linux had 60% server market share back in 2008, and even your source shows Linux server revenue is growing, while windows is shrinking, so in the long run it doesn’t look good for windows does it.

    “Now we are back to sales figures”

    Which are bad, windows 8 is a flop, microsoft claims to have sold roughly 100 million windows 8 licenses to OEM’s, but OEM’s can’t sell those PC’s to consumers, and how long do you think OEM’s will try and sell PC’s with an OS most people don’t want before they try something different?

    PC sales are in decline, and windows 8 hasn’t helped, in fact it’s only made it worse, windows doesn’t have the same desktop market share it once had, like it or not it’s dwindling, I believe Linus Torvalds said it well “it never lasts forever”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NKkvPxYNh9A

  6. oiaohm says:

    bw when did OEM had to restock their server licenses.

    The upkick is caused by restocking not sales on the server side of MS balance sheet as well.

  7. bw says:

    “Explain please, are you implying that windows has double the server market share? because it doesn’t.”

    Close enough for me. Since you are so inept, I went to the trouble to look it up for you. See

    http://www.serverwatch.com/server-news/server-market-continues-to-decline-in-2013.html

    It says:

    “According to IDC, Linux server revenue grew by 3.4 percent year over year and now represents 23.1 percent of the total market.

    In contrast, Microsoft Windows server hardware revenue declined by 4.2 percent, though Windows does still represent 52.2 percent of overall quarterly factory revenue.”

    Now if you want to quibble and say that 2.2597 is technically not “double”, go ahead, but I will only then say that the exact number is even worse for Linux.

    “they can’t hold a monopoly on the desktop forever, and it’s already starting to dwindle”

    Now we are back to sales figures and you will have to read them for yourself. It would be good practice to actually check source materials for yourself rather than passing along something that you heard somewhere and cannot remember and apparently didn’t understand in the first place. Windows client OS had a dramatic uptick in the last quarter, courtesy of strong sales along with a carry-forward from an early adopter program that spiked revenues for Windows 8 and cannot be repeated very soon. Windows Servers similarly had a rise to carry it above $6B for that quarter. No deferred income there, just current sales volume.

  8. oiaohm says:

    Jason bw stupidly goes by value of sold servers.

    Redhat support contracts, Oracle support contracts, Ubuntu support contracts. Don’t get counted in IDC numbers. There are IBM support contracts for Linux as well.

    The reality bw you don’t have any figures really that say Windows in money terms is bigger or smaller than Linux. Linux server is a very hard bugger to count because so many individual parties have their hands out.

    Reason no one has bothers attempting to find out correctly is that is insanely hard to find out if Linux is financially larger or smaller than Windows.

    Next problem is longer life cycle. Linux gets to run hardware to death. Something bw forgets. So number of units required to be sold for Linux is under half required to be sold for Windows for the same market.

    –And it is still growing in absolute terms.–
    No its not. This year the server sales are projected to be down by 8 percent. Linux with increase income compared to prior years. Windows with decreased. Yes Windows taking all the reduction in size or market hits.

  9. jason says:

    “Windows server business is double that of Linux”

    Explain please, are you implying that windows has double the server market share? because it doesn’t.

    “So what is declining?”

    In fact, the quarter prior (Q312), Windows was actually in decline while Linux was growing.

    “Microsoft is in the selling OS software business”

    Well if that’s their main source of income then they’re doomed, not now, not tomorrow, but they can’t hold a monopoly on the desktop forever, and it’s already starting to dwindle.

  10. bw says:

    I think the problem here is a lack of communication! To me, Microsoft is in the selling OS software business, not in the whose got the highest percentage of server types by unit or dollar volume business. For the latter, there is no such business after all.

    Microsoft’s sales of their products has been a very good business and remains so in spite of burbles in their own customer’s, who sell the hardware and software together, fortunes.

    Aren’t you curious as to the meaning of Windows servers growing 3.2% and Linux servers growing 12.7%? does that sound the death knell for Windows? Remember now, that Windows server business is double that of Linux. And it is still growing in absolute terms. Even IBM mainframe business is growing. So what is declining? Something has to give, eh?

    That would be Unix, of course. What happens when the last Unix customer has succumbed to either Linux or Windows? Linux growth will be limited to any overall market growth or less, since you can’t win them all. Microsoft will still be far ahead and the game will be over.

  11. jason says:

    “The short answer is that those numbers are contained in Microsoft’s SEC filings that come out 4 times a year”

    So show us those numbers then, I can show you numbers that show the opposite.

    http://www.linuxfoundation.org/news-media/blogs/browse/2013/03/report-enterprise-linux-growth-outpaces-windows

    Quote “But perhaps most interesting is the opportunity to understand how Linux is outpacing Windows in server revenue in the enterprise. IDC’s latest quarterly tracker shows Linux growing at 12.7 percent year-over-year while Windows is stagnating at 3.2 percent year-over-year growth. In fact, the quarter prior (Q312), Windows was actually in decline while Linux was growing.”

  12. oiaohm says:

    bw
    –But that is only for database connections and such. Almost everything that I see used in businesses today works from web services, either on the internet or on an intranet via a VPN using an RSA key. The service connection provides an aggregated and conditioned data connection that connects to some backend database system and provides data for client applications on the remote computer.

    “There’s an app for that!” is the saying and it applies to phones, tablets, laptops, and even desktops in most businesses. Your ideas (and worries) are pretty old-fashioned in my opinion.–

    In fact that is the problem. Microsoft income model depends on what is old-fashioned things.

    Lot of what you are describing can be serviced by Amazon. Result is instead of Microsoft dealing with many individuals Microsoft has to deal with a large volume buyers. This will result in less even-ally spread payments to Microsoft. Also will result in less payments.

    Cost compare of solutions is in everyone face with cloud services.

  13. bw says:

    “For the longest time, M$ made it extremely difficult to have more than one user run on a PC simultaneously. Why? Because that increased their licences sold (money, of course). Now they can’t hold back the tide so they make it easy as long as money per-seat/per-user is sent to them. ”

    I am having some trouble understanding what you are on about here. For one thing, you can still only have one user at a time on a Windows PC except maybe in some sort of diagnostic situation where the tech has connected to your PC to figure out a problem. That was the whole idea of “personal” computer, after all. I don’t share my computers with anyone. My wife has her own and I have two, an i7 desktop and this laptop, for me. There are several old ones in the attic, too.

    I don’t know what you are talking about with these “CALS” either. Some people still work that way, I am sure, but a CAL for that is like $15 per user and they can access as many servers as they can have connection accounts for with the same CAL.

    But that is only for database connections and such. Almost everything that I see used in businesses today works from web services, either on the internet or on an intranet via a VPN using an RSA key. The service connection provides an aggregated and conditioned data connection that connects to some backend database system and provides data for client applications on the remote computer.

    “There’s an app for that!” is the saying and it applies to phones, tablets, laptops, and even desktops in most businesses. Your ideas (and worries) are pretty old-fashioned in my opinion.

  14. oiaohm says:

    bw in fact both is down in severs. Value and Volume.

    –The short answer is that those numbers are contained in Microsoft’s SEC filings that come out 4 times a year and are readily available for scrutiny. Start with Yahoo Finance and look for MSFT as the stock symbol.–

    And it does not matter where you look in the last 3 years there have been a few quarters where Microsoft has reported losses in all departments.

    This
    –Besides, you’re ignoring reality. Microsoft’s server division is growing, one quarter after another. —
    is bogus. Anyone who has read Microsoft Sec Finding knows that there have been over the recent years many quarters of no growth or worse going backwards.

    Microsoft has had some good Quarters and some bad Quarters in recent years. The magical growth every year is over.

  15. bw says:

    “More interesting than servers, client stuff showed a serious hit: M$’s office suite for consumers was down 32%…”

    Whatever are you looking at? Server income was up to %5.0B from $4.5B and office stuff was up to $6.1B from $5.8B. I know you can read the SEC filings, you post them often enough. The bottom line is that all of these divisions have improved substantially over the past year. They are not going away at all.

  16. bw writing of M$ wrote, “you can see where server OS revenues were up 10% last quarter to a record high and operating income was up 17%”.

    “Unearned Revenue” was down $1billion from June 2012 compared to March 2013… That’s about 15%. Meanwhile revenue (including that $1billion) was only up $500million. So, actual sales in the year were down $500 million rather than up… That deferred revenue is a cute trick that’s getting tired as M$’s share declines.

    More interesting than servers, client stuff showed a serious hit: M$’s office suite for consumers was down 32%…

  17. bw wrote, “Why do you focus on counting the number of packages in the truck as opposed to the money being paid for them?”

    Because it’s not about money, silly! Money is secondary to the freedom to use IT to its maximum capability rather than to restrict its use to please M$.

    e.g. For the longest time, M$ made it extremely difficult to have more than one user run on a PC simultaneously. Why? Because that increased their licences sold (money, of course). Now they can’t hold back the tide so they make it easy as long as money per-seat/per-user is sent to them. OTOH, users of GNU/Linux can have hundreds of users enjoy a single terminal server for $0 extra. Since GNU/Linux licences cost $0 and give permission to do everything with the hardware the only numbers we need to care about are machines and users. In a system of users of Debian GNU/Linux terminal servers, for instance, one can get an incremental cost of adding one user down to less than $200, hardware on client and server. With that other OS it’s $200 for hardware plus a share of a server licence and one or more CALs, perhaps $400 altogether. So I can pay M$ to restrict my hardware and enslave my users or I can have twice as many users happy for the same money or the same number of users happier with performance and cost.

    Yes, M$ can maintain its cash-flow indefinitely by jacking up prices as share declines but they then accelerate the decline because some fraction of the slaves have some idea about price/performance. The days of FUD about GNU/Linux costing more or the same as that other OS are long gone. The fraction of users of IT who know */Linux is an option is pretty large. How low do you think share of units can go before M$’s bottom line is impacted? M$ is almost not a consumer-software supplier these days. There’s bound to be some spillover to the server and services businesses sooner rather than later and it’s all about the number of units, not the revenue. Every consumer that sees Android/Linux or GNU/Linux working for them is one less consumer M$ can rape.

  18. bw says:

    “The market is joyously slurping up */Linux devices.”

    I think that I can hear the buyers laughing all the way down here!

    “IDC: “Server unit shipments decreased 3.9% year over year in 1Q13 to 1.9 million units…”

    Why do you focus on counting the number of packages in the truck as opposed to the money being paid for them? Businesses win or lose on how much money they take in as opposed to how much money they have to put out. Selling one unit for a million bucks and making two hundred thousand on the exchange is better than selling a thousand units for a thousand dollars each and only making $50 on each unit. By far.

    Instead you would tout that “shipments fell 99.9999%!” That seems kind of silly to me.

    If Microsoft is ever to be driven out of business, it will be because of absence of profits due to lower revenues, not because their shipping docks are empty of transports. I think that the majority of their shipping is done over the internet anyway. The OEMs get a gold copy and just use it, sending the money back to the Microsoft bank. Much of their other stuff goes the same way.

  19. bw says:

    “Is it now? and where are those numbers? the truth is that it’s behind Linux, which is outpacing Windows in server revenue by the way”

    The short answer is that those numbers are contained in Microsoft’s SEC filings that come out 4 times a year and are readily available for scrutiny. Start with Yahoo Finance and look for MSFT as the stock symbol.

    If you do the maths, as Pogson frequently suggests, you can see where server OS revenues were up 10% last quarter to a record high and operating income was up 17%. The corresponding numbers for Red Hat, which seems to be the only Linux company making money, is miniscule compared to Microsoft’s server numbers.

    If you are concerned about server revenues that include hardware, as reported on by IDC, Windows server sales increased there as well. Windows server revenues are very much larger than those for Linux, so it is hard to understand how you could come to the conclusions that you state. You need to read a little more widely and closely.

  20. oiaohm says:

    Robert Pogson I should have been more exact.

    Server sales and Desktop sales containing Microsoft Windows of some form is down in numbers from OEMs its only matter of time before this catches up with Microsoft bottom line.

  21. oiaohm wrote, “Both the desktop and server markets are in trouble Maou Sadao.”

    No. The market is joyously slurping up */Linux devices. It’s M$ that’s in trouble.

    IDC: “Server unit shipments decreased 3.9% year over year in 1Q13 to 1.9 million units

    Linux server demand was positively impacted by high performance computing (HPC) and cloud infrastructure deployments, as hardware revenue improved 3.4% year over year in 1Q13 to $2.5 billion. Linux servers now represent 23.1% of all server revenue, up 2.5 points when compared with the first quarter of 2012.”

  22. jason says:

    “For the entertainment”

    Sure, keep telling yourself that, do you also hang around on BSD and Solaris forums as well? or are they not a large enough threat to microsoft’s only stronghold?

    “I don’t love Windows”

    Sure you do, that’s why your here, if Linux was a step backwards then you wouldn’t be here, but it’s not a step backwards, it’s a giant leap forward, which is why you’re here trying to spread FUD.

    “Microsoft’s server division is growing, one quarter after another”

    Is it now? and where are those numbers? the truth is that it’s behind Linux, which is outpacing Windows in server revenue by the way.

    “Windows’ desktop market share declining is not synonymous with Linux’s desktop market share rising”

    So you admit that microsoft is losing it’s grip on it’s only stronghold, well that explains why you’re here now doesn’t it, as an act of desperation.

    Oh and you don’t know that it’s not synonymous with Linux’s desktop market share rising, remember 4 years ago Ballmer estimated Linux desktop market share to be larger than Apples? and it’s only grown since then, you windows fanboys keep ignoring that fact, and a quote from Ballmer “we’re very focused in on both Apple as a competitor, and Linux as a competitor”

  23. oiaohm says:

    –Besides, you’re ignoring reality. Microsoft’s server division is growing, one quarter after another. Isn’t that strange when you clowns always tell how businesses abandon Windows?–

    Maou Sadao to be correct its exactly strange.

    Microsoft has progressively been removing is lower cost products in the server game.

    Also I would like to know exactly what balance sheets you have been reading. Microsoft Server Division has not grown one quarter after another. In recent years it has been fairly stagnate. When due to product changes it should be rising.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/global-server-sales-continuing-to-decline-idc-2013-05-30

    Both the desktop and server markets are in trouble Maou Sadao.

  24. Maou Sadao says:

    “If ‘Desktop Linux is dead weight.’ then why are you even here?”

    For the entertainment. As a Windows administrator I have lots of time on my hands, because my systems are all set up so well that hardly anything goes wrong.

    “I’ll tell you why, because it’s not dead weight, it’s a major threat to your beloved windows in the only market that it has ever done well in, …”

    “Beloved”? I don’t love Windows, I merely think that Linux on the desktop is still a major step back in comparison to Windows.

    Besides, you’re ignoring reality. Microsoft’s server division is growing, one quarter after another. Isn’t that strange when you clowns always tell how businesses abandon Windows?

    “but that’s changing isn’t it, windows desktop market share is declining and you windows trolls camping out in Linux blogs and forums trying to spread FUD isn’t going to change that fact.”

    Windows’ desktop market share declining is not synonymous with Linux’s desktop market share rising, even if Mr. Pogson suddenly has discovered that he can trust web statistics again due to unexplainable “bumps”.

  25. jason says:

    Maou Sadao wrote “The pitiful showing of Linux and its fans continues.”

    The pitiful showing of the windows trolls continue.

    If “Desktop Linux is dead weight.” then why are you even here?
    I’ll tell you why, because it’s not dead weight, it’s a major threat to your beloved windows in the only market that it has ever done well in, but that’s changing isn’t it, windows desktop market share is declining and you windows trolls camping out in Linux blogs and forums trying to spread FUD isn’t going to change that fact.

    Like it or not, Linux desktop usage is growing, while windows is declining, in 2009 Ballmer estimated that Linux desktop market share was bigger than Apples, and Linux desktop usage has only grown since then, which explains why you windows fanboys are so desperate.

  26. Agent_Smith says:

    Actually, Mr. Benevolent Dictator is a trickster.
    He never really wanted that bug to be fixed, or else he would be more aggressive in his market decisions.
    He wanted to create a brand and then sell it to a major company. Seems that didn’t work out well… Yet.

  27. Ted says:

    “Even while Shuttleworth claims the battle is less relevant he is planning to have 5% of PC production this year ”

    In the spirit of the famous Laconic reply to the Macedonians…

    “planning”

  28. Ted says:

    CLOSED – CANTFIX

  29. Maou Sadao wrote, “The pitiful showing of Linux and its fans continues.”

    GNU/Linux continues to have good growth. Even while Shuttleworth claims the battle is less relevant he is planning to have 5% of PC production this year and Ubuntu GNU/Linux is still growing. Meanwhile Windows is down to 56% on Wikipedia… How low will it go?

  30. Maou Sadao says:

    Finally! True words are spoken! And if you translate them from Shuttleworth’s marketing hog-wash into plain, old English:

    We blew it. And we will stop trying. Desktop Linux is dead weight.

    Mr. Pogson is ever one to accuse others of retrofitting history, but Mr. Pogson himself is a master of this game. Once he recognized that Desktop Linux would never displace the world market leader, he jumped onto the “Android IS Linux, and that’s why we win!” bandwagon.

    The pitiful showing of Linux and its fans continues.

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