Jefferies Predicts Decline In Wintel for Years to Come

“He now forecasts branded PCs to decline 3% next year, from a previous estimate of up 1%, with 2014 looking even gloomier, with a decline of 5%. He notes that in the next half decade he expects to see he PC replacement cycle lengthen two years, to about eight years, and overall annual PC shipment volumes falling from approximately 350 million to 300 million.”

see Jefferies Reins In Global PC Sales Expectations, Lowers Microsoft Estimates & PT – Tech Trader Daily – Barrons.com.

Meanwhile, Wintel tablets have fizzled:

“Of more than a dozen tablets Microsoft and Intel touted for the new version of Windows, only five can be bought for immediate U.S. delivery.”

via Microsoft-Intel tablet sales sputtering | The Seattle Times.

Wintel sales in USA are actualy down in the month of November:

“Consumer sales of Windows-powered personal computers fell 21 percent overall last month, according to a leading retail research firm, indicating a lackluster debut for Microsoft Corp’s Windows 8 operating system, which many in the industry had hoped would revive slack PC sales.”

see Windows PC sales in US down 21 percent in November: NPD.

All this as */Linux on ARM skyrockets and GNU/Linux on everything still grows strongly. Shares of MSFT stock are down to $26.60 from a high of $32.77 this year. The “pop” developed in the run-up to “8” is all gone.
Nothing remains but the harsh reality that the cash-cow is sick.

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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9 Responses to Jefferies Predicts Decline In Wintel for Years to Come

  1. pogson says:

    ram wrote, “You should also stop saying Wintel since it is AMD that is bed with Microsoft and it is Intel that is genuinely supporting Linux.”

    The end times are upon us. Good news. Perhaps 2013 will be the year when OEMs and retailers finally see GNU/Linux as a mainstream. The IT people have been seeing that for years now.

    There are lots of businesses that have painted themselves into a corner. HP and AMD still seem like confused puppies rather than mighty hunters.

  2. ram says:

    I went to a major Asian IT trade show last week. Intel’s new NUC boxes were running Linux (they don’t run Microsoft 8), as was the entire line of boxes from Shuttle, which range from low power consumption modest computing power to serious 12 thread, 4 way memory, high end i7s.
    They also use Intel chips, and don’t run Microsoft 8. There was immense interest in these devices.

    On the other hand, AMD was getting no traction since there are NO MOTHERBOARDS that use AMD’s latest FX- and A- series processors that run Linux. Likewise not much interest in GigaByte or ASUS motherboards, same issue. OEM’s and consumers don’t want Microsoft 8.

    You should also stop saying Wintel since it is AMD that is bed with Microsoft and it is Intel that is genuinely supporting Linux.

  3. lpbbear says:

    “I’d rather use an unsupported Windows 2000 than any modern Linux distribution!”

    Go for it dude!

    I have my elderly Mother using Linux and as well she uses Win2000 in VirtualBox for a couple Windows apps she likes. The Win2000 system is blocked from using the Internet. Otherwise it would have been toast ages ago. As far as Windows versions go Win2000 wasn’t too bad. Lighter on system resources, fairly stable, but like ALL versions of Windows….a security nightmare.

    But hey, if you want to cruise the net with it instead of Linux I say go for it. Go visit your banking site or perhaps do a few credit card purchases with Win2000 since you’re so confident in it.

    Put your money where your mouth is.

  4. Lord Penguin wrote, “I’d rather use an unsupported Windows 2000 than any modern Linux distribution!”

    That’s crap. You’d be up to your ears in malware if you were on the web. For some off-line purpose it might work if all you did was run some legacy app but you could do that just as well with GNU/Linux most likely.

  5. d. says:

    Sour grapes for ms trolls.

  6. Lord Penguin says:

    Wintel declines, but Linux still sucks. What’s the fuzz all about? I’d rather use an unsupported Windows 2000 than any modern Linux distribution!

  7. dougman says:

    One has to be either brain-dead, or in the pocket of M$ in some manner if this isn’t already known. The ONLY thing keeping M$ afloat is momentum, but in time you can not beat the laws of nature, namely gravity, as M$ surely is in no way producing anything truly innovative.

    I also mentioned some time ago on this blog that the stock APPL had already topped out and will start to decline. Jobs ran a tight ship, but you can only saturate the market so much with $600 tablets.

    Google seems to be on the right track and Linux is helping it get there, the only problem is the bickering from the competitors that rather knock over it’s sand castle with patents, just because they are jealous.

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