According to IDC,
“Windows tablets (which include Windows 7 tablets shipping today, and Windows RT and Windows 8 tablets shipping in the fourth quarter of 2012) are expected to grow from about 1% of the market in 2011 to 4% in 2012, on their way to 11% of the market by 2016. During those same years iOS will grow from 57.2% in 2011 to 60% in 2012, eventually slipping back to 58% by 2016; Android will slip from 38.9% to 35.3%, declining to 30.5% by 2016.”
The myth of invincibility of M$’s marketing team and the slavish behaviour of locked-in users, retailers and OEMs is all but gone even at IDC, a company that has done a lot of research for M$ over the years.
What should be really sobering for fans of M$ is that this thriving ecosystem in IT having little to do with M$ is encroaching on M$’s cash cow and will shrink the monopoly for the next few years at least. The world cannot invest this much in non-M$ stuff and still have money to throw at the desktop monopoly.