“Asia Pacific personal computer (PC) shipments totaled 30.3 million units in the second quarter of 2012, a 2.6 percent decline compared with the same quarter in 2011, according to Gartner, Inc. The most notable decline came from China’s PC market at 5.4 percent, marking its first year-on-year negative growth ever.”
see Gartner: Asia Pacific PC Shipments Declined 2.6 Percent in Second Quarter of 2012.
While Gartner shows good growth for Lenovo and big drops for others, the decline is small, more indicating that demand/supply for PCs (excluding tablets and smart phones) has peaked. Combine this with the spectacular growth of some of those economies and huge advertising budgets, I am drawn to the conclusion that small cheap computers are really killing growth in those markets. Instead of annually increasing shipments we see a pattern of decline while tablets and smart phones take off like rockets. Clearly x86 PCs are losing share to ARMed PCs and that other OS is losing share to */Linux.
The longer such a shift continues the more sure I am that it’s real and not a blip. This brings to mind my thoughts on usage of PCs long ago, when the Internet was still new, “Most people don’t know what to do with a PC.” In those days, folks ran a few applications like word-processors and games. Eventually accessing the Internet became sufficient reason to own a PC for most consumers, around half the unit-demand for PCs. Those consumers are satisfied with smart phones and tablets for accessing the Internet. The x86 PC world and Wintel, in particular, has lost a “killer app”.
The new technology is still new and large numbers of people have yet to acquire tablets but see the benefits. I expect this trend will continue for a few years at least and emerging markets will see about half of personal computing done with smart phones and tablets. So, that other OS need not apply. The world has moved on from Wintel.
Businesses are another matter. From the beginning they saw the PC as cost-saving compared to mainframes and businesses make money using PCs so the cost of the PC and its mobility is less important than that certain applications run. The shift to web applications is changing that too but it takes longer before the share of applications that are critical to most businesses will be web applications. At the moment more than half of business applications are web applications. That still requires thick clients to be widely used in most businesses. There is a shift to thin clients but it’s still small.
So, market share for Wintel is trending down towards 50% over the next few years. I have no idea what the share a decade from now will be, but I don’t see any resurgence to monopoly. It’s just too expensive and without benefit. The world can create its own hardware and software without Wintel. Wintel, to stay in the market will have to adopt open standards and play nicely with others, something M$ has not had to do for decades.
Signs that M$ sees this are everywhere:
- finally, M$ will share files in open standards in its office suite,
- finally, M$ will release a version of its client OS for ARM,
- finally, M$ is breaking reverse compatibility to compete with the new technology,
- finally, M$ is allowing OEMs to ship GNU/Linux, and
- finally, M$ is accepting it is no longer the elephant in the room of IT.
Oh, M$ will fight to maintain the monopoly wherever it exists but it’s a rear guard action like suing over software patents, “Surface” and “8″. There’s nothing they can do to “win”. It’s all about delaying the inevitable decline. Software patents, even if they are not killed by the courts expire eventually. “Surface” competes directly with OEMs, ~75% of M$’s customers. That’s a winning strategy, eh? “8″ looks to be a disaster in the short term. Businesses will have no use for it and half still cling to XP, let alone “7″. The rubber band between businesses and M$ is about to break.
We are seeing these shifts first in emerging markets despite the approximate equality of notebook and desktop shipments. Since the market emerging has the potential to be several times larger than the established markets Asia Pacific is a good indicator of things to come. The small cheap computers are an emerging market within an emerging market and rapidly displacing the old ways.
My recent foray into Walmart suggests the established markets will follow this trend. Not one ATX/big box PC was on display. More tablets and smart phones were on display than notebooks. I expect Walmart knows what sells.
This bodes well for */Linux as FLOSS fits well with “small and cheap”, no overhead on the price of software. To remain price-competitive, many x86 PCs need GNU/Linux or Android/Linux. I recommend Debian GNU/Linux because it will run on ARM, Intel, AMD, Via, and on any size computer from a $60 tablet to a $million mainframe. GNU/Linux has it covered. Android/Linux is OK, too, but GNU/Linux should be easier for XP-addicts to accept.
see also, I Cringley, “here’s Microsoft’s internal business strategy as I understand it. In order to regain mobile momentum they’ve deliberately hobbled the desktop side. That way they can reasonably claim desktop sales as mobile sales and vice versa. What better way to pick up 100+ million “mobile licenses” in the next 12 months?”
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23886 
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Cringley is spot on, I have made the same observations and also have said that M$ has BOB’d Windows 8. The METRO interface reminded me of the BOB’d GUI.
Microsoft Bob, if you don’t remember its fleeting passage in 1995, was a so-called social interface for Windows intended to be used by novices. The idea was that Bob should be so intuitive as to require no instruction at all. And it succeeded in that, I suppose, though was appallingly slow. I was at the Bob introduction and remember Bill Gates requiring 17 mouse clicks (I counted) just to open a file during his demo. I knew then that Bob was doomed and said so in print.
Just like every other writer who mentions Bob, I’ll take the low road here and recall that the Microsoft Product Manager for Bob was Melinda French. Who was going to tell the future Mrs. Gates that 17 clicks were too many?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=edlE4Yvv5-s
Seems Monkey Boy Ballmer and Handme Another Tablet Sinofsky ran out of ideas and decided to ape the entire Windows inexperience.
It’s not a case of “need”, it’s a case of “want”. M$ needs users to want the new version. It’s the want that sells iPhones and Android smartphones, M$ is trying to get Windows users to want Windows 8-but we can see where too many users are so afraid of this new change that they’re going to resist it as hard as they can.
Windows 8 = Vista 2
dougman wrote, “Windows 8 = Vista 2″
Nope, “7″ was Vista 2. “8″ will be Vista 3. Another appellation for “7″ is Vista debugged. Who knows what M$ will call what’s coming. They keep changing the names of things as if it matters. They must be very insecure in their fundamental concepts.
Typically rebranding can come about due to a negative image of the company, competitor differentiation, lost market share, reorganization or emergent situations, etc.
With the new logo change and modified naming convention for Windows OS, makes one wonder doesn’t it?
M$ seesm to fit all of those scenarios, and I gander to guess that there will be even more rebranding as time goes along.
They keep changing the names of things as if it matters. They must be very insecure in their fundamental concepts.
Sort of like Cupcake, Donut, Eclair, FroYo, Gingerbread, Honeycomb, Ice Cream Sandwich, or Jelly Bean? If the name is changed more often, does that indicate a higher degree of insecurity?
Meanwhile, this just in!
Unsold small cheap computers continue to pile up in the channel and distributors are applying a financial laxative to get them moving. Where will it all end?
If low end products are piling up, then that does that say about higher end software?
Besides, we are in a down economy worldwide. Who can afford $1300 Ultrabooks and thousands of dollars for server software
At least Google came up with more original names, then: 3.1, 95, 98, NT, ME, 2000, XP, VISTA, 7 or 8
I think Clarence is jealous of the funny names, “Why can’t M$ Windows be cool like Android?”
“finally, M$ is accepting it is no longer the elephant in the room of IT.”
I should point out that “elephant in the room” doesn’t mean what you think it means.
An “elephant in the room” is an obvious truth that people wilfully ignore, or do not see, or do not want to discuss.
A proper usage of the phrase would be “Linux advocates say Linux should be taking over the world, but the elephant in the room is that Linux just isn’t superior to Windows or Mac OS”
“800lb gorilla” is the phrase you’re looking for. Or use “Chipzilla” when talking about Intel.
Clarence Moon wrote, “Unsold small cheap computers continue to pile up in the channel”.
Meanwhile, this just in, “more small cheap computers selling than big expensive computers”. When a channel is as big as the new technology, one can expect a few losers. Consumers have choice and one of their possible choices is to buy A instead of B whereupon B remains in the channel unsold.
“Tablet PCs are the fastest growing application for touch, with 2011 shipments tripling to 79.6 million units. Growth continues to be strong, and NPD DisplaySearch forecasts that more than 130 million touch screens will be shipped for tablet PCs in 2012″ see NPD DisplaySearch 29 August 2012
Meanwhile, growth in Wintel machines is negative…
Meanwhile, growth in Wintel machines is negative…
Market growth is apparently marking time due to some buyers holding off for the availability of Windows 8, Mr. Pogson, but overall shipments are still strong and, more importantly, profits at Microsoft remain robust.
Also, if you look at the entire Windows ecosystem at Microsoft, namely client OS, server OS, office automation, development tools, and other products that are used in conjunction with Windows, you can see that even revenue and profit growth are both increasing.
In general, profits from PCs in these areas continue to overwhelm the meager profits that can be attributed to phone and tablet OS. Apple will likely continue to take the lion’s share of profits from tablet and phone device sales while service providers such as ATT and Verizon will make tons of money selling minutes. Some content providers like Amazon and Barnes and Nobel will also make some hay from their specialized tablet devices. The rest of the players are scrambling for the peanuts not consumed by these elephants.
Clarence Moon says Microsoft is too big to fail (in so many words). Where have I heard that before?
Clarence Moon wrote, “profits at Microsoft remain robust”.
Not for the client division and the whole operation showed a loss last quarter.
2011 operating income down 5% from 2010
2012 operating income down 6% from 2011
Meanwhile the world is growing and more people are using more IT. That’s not robust, is it? They are not just having random bad quarters. They are having consecutive bad years.
Not for the client division and the whole operation showed a loss last quarter
But the server division seems to be flourishing, and compensates for the decline in the client division. So long for Linux and MySQL, or MariaDB if you must, beating Windows on servers and databases.
Ah, and MS is coming to tablets again. Less than two months to go, and all OEMs are already prepared with their 8 tablets. Including Samsung.
Not for the client division…
As I said, Mr. Pogson, you have to consider the whole ecosystem. You “cannot see the forest for the trees” as is said. Hope and pray for Microsoft’s demise as you wish, but, at the end of the day, it is only the money in the bank that counts on the scoreboard and Windows is far, far ahead of whatever might be in second place.
The founders and directors of Microsoft, and many who came after, have long since moved their wealth to safe havens and Allen, Gates, and even Ballmer will never want for anything again, be that a fine meal or a 777 private airplane.
Phenom
“But the server division seems to be flourishing”
Again this is not good as it sounds. A percentage of the loss of desktop to Linux goes to Windows server for thin terminal provisioning. This is in fact written in the IBM redbook for migrations.
So what you are talking about lines up to possible Linux growth going on.
Money in the bank only counts while people trust the bank.