Robert Pogson

“Asia Pacific personal computer (PC) shipments totaled 30.3 million units in the second quarter of 2012, a 2.6 percent decline compared with the same quarter in 2011, according to Gartner, Inc. The most notable decline came from China’s PC market at 5.4 percent, marking its first year-on-year negative growth ever.”

see Gartner: Asia Pacific PC Shipments Declined 2.6 Percent in Second Quarter of 2012.

While Gartner shows good growth for Lenovo and big drops for others, the decline is small, more indicating that demand/supply for PCs (excluding tablets and smart phones) has peaked. Combine this with the spectacular growth of some of those economies and huge advertising budgets, I am drawn to the conclusion that small cheap computers are really killing growth in those markets. Instead of annually increasing shipments we see a pattern of decline while tablets and smart phones take off like rockets. Clearly x86 PCs are losing share to ARMed PCs and that other OS is losing share to */Linux.

The longer such a shift continues the more sure I am that it’s real and not a blip. This brings to mind my thoughts on usage of PCs long ago, when the Internet was still new, “Most people don’t know what to do with a PC.” In those days, folks ran a few applications like word-processors and games. Eventually accessing the Internet became sufficient reason to own a PC for most consumers, around half the unit-demand for PCs. Those consumers are satisfied with smart phones and tablets for accessing the Internet. The x86 PC world and Wintel, in particular, has lost a “killer app”.

The new technology is still new and large numbers of people have yet to acquire tablets but see the benefits. I expect this trend will continue for a few years at least and emerging markets will see about half of personal computing done with smart phones and tablets. So, that other OS need not apply. The world has moved on from Wintel.

Businesses are another matter. From the beginning they saw the PC as cost-saving compared to mainframes and businesses make money using PCs so the cost of the PC and its mobility is less important than that certain applications run. The shift to web applications is changing that too but it takes longer before the share of applications that are critical to most businesses will be web applications. At the moment more than half of business applications are web applications. That still requires thick clients to be widely used in most businesses. There is a shift to thin clients but it’s still small.

So, market share for Wintel is trending down towards 50% over the next few years. I have no idea what the share a decade from now will be, but I don’t see any resurgence to monopoly. It’s just too expensive and without benefit. The world can create its own hardware and software without Wintel. Wintel, to stay in the market will have to adopt open standards and play nicely with others, something M$ has not had to do for decades.

Signs that M$ sees this are everywhere:

• finally, M$ will share files in open standards in its office suite,
• finally, M$ will release a version of its client OS for ARM,
• finally, M$ is breaking reverse compatibility to compete with the new technology,
• finally, M$ is allowing OEMs to ship GNU/Linux, and
• finally, M$ is accepting it is no longer the elephant in the room of IT.

Oh, M$ will fight to maintain the monopoly wherever it exists but it’s a rear guard action like suing over software patents, “Surface” and “8″. There’s nothing they can do to “win”. It’s all about delaying the inevitable decline. Software patents, even if they are not killed by the courts expire eventually. “Surface” competes directly with OEMs, ~75% of M$’s customers. That’s a winning strategy, eh? “8″ looks to be a disaster in the short term. Businesses will have no use for it and half still cling to XP, let alone “7″. The rubber band between businesses and M$ is about to break.

We are seeing these shifts first in emerging markets despite the approximate equality of notebook and desktop shipments. Since the market emerging has the potential to be several times larger than the established markets Asia Pacific is a good indicator of things to come. The small cheap computers are an emerging market within an emerging market and rapidly displacing the old ways.

My recent foray into Walmart suggests the established markets will follow this trend. Not one ATX/big box PC was on display. More tablets and smart phones were on display than notebooks. I expect Walmart knows what sells.

This bodes well for */Linux as FLOSS fits well with “small and cheap”, no overhead on the price of software. To remain price-competitive, many x86 PCs need GNU/Linux or Android/Linux. I recommend Debian GNU/Linux because it will run on ARM, Intel, AMD, Via, and on any size computer from a $60 tablet to a $million mainframe. GNU/Linux has it covered. Android/Linux is OK, too, but GNU/Linux should be easier for XP-addicts to accept.

see also, I Cringley, “here’s Microsoft’s internal business strategy as I understand it. In order to regain mobile momentum they’ve deliberately hobbled the desktop side. That way they can reasonably claim desktop sales as mobile sales and vice versa. What better way to pick up 100+ million “mobile licenses” in the next 12 months?”

“You’d be a fool to use anything but Linux”

SJVN quotes Google. It’s a great line and it’s the truth. As much as naysayers condemn GNU/Linux on the desktop, it sure beats the alternatives every way imaginable:

• price,
• security,
• flexibility (licence, installation and configuration),
• performance, and
• management.

Google made some poor decisions IMHO with Android/Linux but they chose Ubuntu GNU/Linux because of its package manager, APT, and Canonical’s “cadence” which suits Google’s upgrade cycle of two years. I guess they haven’t heard of thin clients… Oh, well. Google can afford to disagree with me. They also pay Canonical for support.

see The truth about Goobuntu: Google's in-house desktop Ubuntu Linux | ZDNet.

Acer is one of the top five PC OEMs unless you count small cheap computers. Lately they are having growth pains, building stuff no one wanted and stuffing channels. I guess they’ve seen the light and intend to remedy that.

The news:

“"In the product development stages, we will place marketing ahead of R&D and design," Acer CEO J.T. Wang said in a statement. Understanding customers’ needs will decide how the company designs its products and services, he added.”

That could be NewSpeak for doing what everyone else is doing but it could be that Acer will really begin to supply the need for small cheap computers instead of the need for Wintel to keep growing. Their new market strategy partners, Red Peak Group, seem to have the right idea:
“Red Peak’s approach to brand strategy starts with a study of the organization, the consumer and the cultural context in which they exist. We use a variety of qualitative and quantitative research techniques to get to a well-defined strategic approach.” That’s not about pleasing Redmond… It could be about remaining relevant in the 21^st century with small cheap computers reigning supreme. It could be about another OEM exploring ways to escape the Wintel monopoly.

see Acer to link marketing closely to product development, appoints new CMO | ITworld.

A “Nantucket boat ride” happens when you hook into a whale and it tows your boat… This can be dangerous. It was for the jury. Their fearless leader had no idea what “prior art” meant and decided no prior art but Apple’s mattered…

"The software on the Apple side could not be placed into the processor on the prior art and vice versa. That means they are not interchangeable. That changed everything right there."

via Jury foreman says Apple patents valid due to different processor architecture | Hacker News.

Sigh… I cannot see any way that the judge will allow the findings of the jury to stand. That makes no sense at all. I could not understand it in the video.

see 2:53 onward for the part in question.

This foreman demonstrates colosal ignorance defeating common sense. Prior art is OS/CPU-independent. Patents are about function.

Later, the guy goes on to avoid the question of why he felt the need to punish Samsung rather than merely compensating Apple, compounding his error. The jury’s findings are nonsensical based on bias by the jurors, not evidence in the case. Later he grabbed numbers not in evidence to calculate the damage Apple had sustained.

He said he looked at the case from the viewpoint that the “patents were mine” in order to decide matters. What’s with that? This guy dragged the jury around by the nose.

see also GROKLAW – The Foreman’s Aha Moment in Apple v. Samsung Was Based on Misunderstanding Prior Art ~pj

We all know there are a few valid reasons to use that other OS. One is playing DVDs.

“No, I’m not making this up. Come the day you buy a Windows 8 PC, or if you’re brave enough to install it yourself on an older PC, you’ll find that Windows 8 can’t play DVDs. You can also forget about TV tuner support and DVD Video Object (VOB) file playback. They’re gone too.”

See SJVN – How to watch DVDs on your Windows 8 PC: VideoLAN’s VLC.

Isn’t that cute? M$ is unbundling DVD playback… How soon will they unbundle the OS? “If you want to use this PC you just bought, send $50 USD and your UPC to
TAXATION
One M$ Way
Redmond, WA”

” I watched a guy with his friend, pick up a newspaper; and start to remark on the Samsung Apple verdict.

Guy: “Wait, so what they’re saying is, Samsung is the same as Apple?”
Friend: “I know, right? Makes me think twice about how much I paid for my Mac Book”
Guy: “Seriously”
“

So, Apple has just persuaded a jury and the US public that Samsung copied Apple’s technology. Nice “own goal”, Apple. The whole world now knows how good Samsung’s stuff is and you provided them free advertising.

see Enrique Gutierrez – Google+ – I can't make this stuff up I'm sitting in a Starbucks….