I have been predicting for a while that Android/Linux would kick butt in tablets for 2012. It seems now that industry-players are seeing the same things:
Apple is surrounded and out-numbered,
Apple is not well-represented in many regions,
M$ and that other OS are not in play, and
Android/Linux is working well for users and there are tons of apps.
Further, the “investment” by M$ in Barnes & Noble makes an uneven playing field. OEMs are better off investing in Android/Linux devices than hoping M$ will click on tablets. A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush. By now Android/Linux will have 50% unit-share of tablets being shipped and Android/Linux is not slowing down even though sales of tablets may.
M$ has announced 29% average price hikes for “volume” licensing in the UK. The public sector and education are spared the increase, probably by throwing away their freedom again…
Whether or not the cause is currency alignment or greed this sticker-shock should give greater visibility to GNU/Linux and other FLOSS (Free/Libre Open Source Software). It just makes no sense to throw money away for permission to run our computers, anywhere in IT.
So, in 2011, by their own numbers and Apple’s we can calculate share as
11.798*4/81.6*100 = 57.8%
using 2011 shipments for tablets and Q1 2012 shipments for iPad. If one uses DisplaySearch’s estimates for 2012 shipments, 120 million tablets, iOS has a much smaller share,
11.798/(120/4)*100 = 39.3%
Even accounting for the growth of iPad, from 15.434 million in Q4 2011 declining to 11.798 million in Q1 2012, doesn’t help iPad’s numbers with negative growth…
It would be charitable to say iPads have huge growth at this stage. It looks like they had a blip at Christmas and have levelled off.
IDC overestimated iPad shares by underestimating tablet shipments…
Chart: Worldwide Media Tablet Shipments Split by OS Historical and Forecast* 2010 – 2016 (Units in Millions)Description: Source: Worldwide Quarterly Media Tablet & e-Reader Tracker, March 12, 2012Note: IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly Media Tablet & e-Reader Tracker provides total market size and vendor share for both the Media Tablet and eReader markets in 46 countries. Detailed historical segmentation is provided by CPU type, operating system, connectivity type, screen size and resolution, storage capacity, distribution channel, and customer segment. Measurement for this tracker is in units, value, and end-user price. For more information, or to subscribe to the research, please contact Kathy Nagamine at 1-650-350-6423 or firstname.lastname@example.org. Further detail about this tracker can be found at:http://www.idc.com/tracker/showproductinfo.jsp?prod_id=81Tags: IDC, Tracker, Worldwide, Media Tablets, Media Tablet, OS, Android, iOS …Author: IDCcharts powered by iCharts
Really, Displaysearch and IDC, do the maths. iPads are growing but tablets with Android/Linux are growing much faster. That other OS? Not even in the running…