Q1 2012 Should Have Made a Big Hit On M$’s Web Stats

According to Canalys, tablets were 19% of PC shipments in Q1 and 40% in USA. That means M$’s share of newly-connected devices is way down. HP and Apple are practically tied for units shipped and Apple does not ship M$’s OS…

Wikimedia reports activity of the installed base as February = 76.22% and March = 75.79%, down 0.57% in one month. This means many have multiple devices but that could change. Many are content-consumers and smart-thingies are fine for that. The old-fashioned PC manufacturers are hoping “8” will give them a boost but we didn’t see that with Phoney “7” so I doubt we will see that for “8”. Consumers can avoid buying PCs with “8” just as they are avoiding buying PCs with “7”. At some point the retailers will give more shelf-space to */Linux and there will be nowhere for M$ to go but down. There is no shortage of apps for consumers on smart- thingies.

see also Digitimes – HP regains top spot in client PC market, says Canalys

About Robert Pogson

I am a retired teacher in Canada. I taught in the subject areas where I have worked for almost forty years: maths, physics, chemistry and computers. I love hunting, fishing, picking berries and mushrooms, too.
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8 Responses to Q1 2012 Should Have Made a Big Hit On M$’s Web Stats

  1. Prong Reboots says:

    Robert, I am quite confused what you are trying to argue. Starting from the blog post then flowing down through your comments, I arrive at

    1. 40% of PCs shipped were tablets. This segment sees little to no Microsoft operating systems.
    2. As you said “consumers have mostly a single choice for OS”, this would mean tablets are not sold in Walmart. However this is contradicted by their online storefront.
    3. PCs no longer include tablets (?) and now only x86 counts.

    In particular I am quite confused why you switched gears to x86 when the blog post was about tablets, almost all of which are based on ARM. Are tablets in the same market segment in PCs or not? Your blog posts strongly suggests they are but you seem to have changed your mind in the comments.

  2. No, they are not. One is about all PCs and the other is about x86 PCs on retail shelves, totally different hardware. The present situation will not last. Retailers will notice they are selling lots of */Linux and less Wintel sooner or later. Last Christmas was a wake-up call. PCs of the x86 kind were not moving. Retailers have tiny margins and count on selling goods from the shelves repeatedly every year. They have capital tied up in inventory.

    On a related matter, Mark Shuttleworth thinks Bug #1 has been fixed… I think it will take a fair share of retail shelf-space in my town before I would accept that.

  3. Prong Reboots says:

    These two statements are contradictory:

    “According to Canalys, tablets were 19% of PC shipments in Q1 and 40% in USA. That means M$’s share of newly-connected devices is way down.”

    “The result is that consumers have mostly a single choice for OS, “anything from M$”. That’s monopoly.”

  4. Prong Reboots says:

    Robert, why is it so difficult to admit that Microsoft does not have monopoly position? Isn’t that what you want to prove? You labor to find evidence to back the point but then contradict yourself when the conclusion of your research is presented.

  5. M$ has a monopoly on retail space for x86 PCs in my local Walmart and other outlets where I have checked. Retailers could supply GNU/Linux if they wanted. There are OEMs shipping good GNU/Linux products. The result is that consumers have mostly a single choice for OS, “anything from M$”. That’s monopoly.

  6. There’s always the “hype cycle”. There are enough people enamoured of M$ to keep the cash cow running well when there is a new release. In particular, OEMs will generate stock whether or not consumers buy, for a while. I don’t think folks have queued up for M$’s products since Lose ’95.

  7. Prong Reboots says:

    Robert, from your own text you agree that

    1. Tablets and PCs compete in the same market.
    2. Tablets composed 40% of USA sales volume.
    3. Microsoft has insignificant presence in this space.

    Therefore you must agree that 40% >> 1% or less. Since one can not have a monopoly with 60%, you must concede Microsoft does not have monopoly position.

  8. kozmcrae says:

    Robert, I expect to see some wild statistics regarding Windows 8 sales and consumer “acceptance” early on after the release date. That would be standard operating procedure for Microsoft. They will try to give the impression that everyone is buying Windows 8 and loving it.

    Of course that would not be the case. After a few weeks or a couple of months the awful truth becomes apparent. But that doesn’t stop the Cult of Microsoft from chiming in with a chorus of “I told you sos”. They take the fake statistics as gospel and continue to link to them as fact long after they’ve been revealed to be Microsoft’s pie in the sky fantasy.

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