Robert Pogson

One man, closing all the windows.

Daily Archives / Wednesday, March 28, 2012

  • Mar 28 / 2012
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The World of IT According to IDC

I disagree with IDC’s view of the world in a couple of ways:

  1. They seem to like linear growth, which works for rates of production, but ignores consumer demand feeding fires… The growth of tablet shipments has been 100%+ for two years now. It will not slow down. People really do like small cheap computers, IDC, and they can afford more of them, a lot more.
  2. They assume the world owes Wintel a living and will continue to run on the treadmill forever. A keyboard added to some small cheap computer will do a lot of what people need doing, IDC.

So, take the following chart with a grain of salt and expect a revised version next year. Africa and China are skipping the Age of Wired and going straight to wireless with small cheap computers. They won’t wait for linear growth of production. Someone will meet that demand for the next few billion users. I expect little or no growth of the Wintel market for years to come. ;-)

Chart: Worldwide Smart Connected Device Shipments, 2010-2016 (Unit Millions)Description: This data comes from IDC’s WW Quarterly PC Tracker, WW Quarterly Mobile Phone Tracker, and WW Quarterly Media Tablet and eReader Tracker.Tags: Tracker, mobile phones, tablets, forecast, PCs, devices, consumer, IDC …Author: IDCcharts powered by iCharts

For a second opinion, check out DisplaySearch.

  • Mar 28 / 2012
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I just checked the stats. As of today, this is our busiest month yet and we still have 3.5 days to go. Every couple of months we set a new record. Still, the server is not working that hard:
18:03:41 up 5 days, 12:43, 0 users, load average: 0.27, 0.17, 0.09

  • Mar 28 / 2012
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Oracle Now on the Defensive

Oracle, who trumpeted to the world that Google stole their property and owed Oracle $billions, now is on the defensive in the suit they brought.

Today, GROKLAW shows the arguments the court asked of the participants:
“Google asserts that Sun’s field-of-use restriction only arose if you licensed the Java technology development kit (TDK) to assure compatibility between your version of Java and the standard version produced by Sun, and if you took that license and assured compatibility, you were then licensed to use Sun’s Java trademark to reference your compatible version. The Apache Foundation was never willing to license the TDK under those conditions, never did so, and refrained from calling or referencing Harmony as Java. As a consequence, Harmony has never been subject to the TDK field-of-use restrictions, and Sun never attempted to enforce those restrictions against Apache. Assuming the API implementations used by Google are those found in Apache, and given that Google does not refer to Android as Java or Java-compatible, this would appear to be a compelling argument.”

Oracle managed only to sow confusion which the judge has noticed…
“B. Questions For Oracle.

By claiming that Google infringes the API implementation, is Oracle alleging that Google copied the source code implementing the APIs? Is Oracle also claiming that Google’s source code implementation of the Android APIs is a derivative work of the Java API specifications? What is Oracle’s answer to Google’s point in reply that the copyright registrations do not create a presumption as to the copyrightability of the APIs? Are there any aspects of the APIs that Oracle concedes are unprotectable by copyright?”

Questions for Google are pretty unloaded in comparison:“C. Questions For Google.

Does Google admit to copying the structure, arrangement, and selection of the Java APIs? Are these 11 source code file removed from Android?”

When he figures out what an API is, Oracle is toast.

The judge is at least squeezing the bag containing this pig of a lawsuit. I think he wants to look inside the bag… No hand-waving or banging the table will do.

UPDATE Just noticed this comment by “anonymous” (somehow it is now “gone”) on GROKLAW:
“I don’t know how many of you out there have kids, but you should recognise this,
you know *something* is going on, but you can’t figure it out, so you ask them direct

One stands before you, open, clear, articulate, straightforward, if a little
baffled by the question you’re asking
The other wriggles, can’t keep the story straight, can’t look you in the eye,
can’t stand still, keeps trying to talk about something else.

Do they *really* want to put this in front of a Jury?”

ROFL! Beautifully apt description of Oracle’s case.

  • Mar 28 / 2012
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Price Competition in Tablet PCs

Chuckle. The world loves small cheap computers and the tablet is where consumers will have a feeding frenzy in 2012. Google is expected to release a 7″ tablet soon in competition with Amazon’s Kindle. This year what you can get for under $200 will put to shame many old-style PCs: price, mobility, weight, size, cuteness, etc. I have pockets that will hold a 7″ tablet. Probably the glove-compartment of my car could hold one. I could have them laying about on multiple flat surfaces… Think of the possibilities. As in every market, one can spend $600+ on stuff with very similar functionality but, “Why bother?”. You can buy two or three for the price of one… This will surely take a bite out of Wintel. Who needs to “go to the PC” for something that’s within arm’s length wherever you are?

see Digitimes – Google 7-inch tablet PCs to bring price-cut pressure on other vendors