The web is an interesting place. One can get up on the “soap-box” and predict. Later, others can replay the prediction and compare it with reality.
“According to Gartner, 94 percent of new PCs will be shipped with Windows 7 in 2011. By the end of the year, Windows 7 will become the leading operating system (OS) worldwide in the PC installed base, running on 42 percent of PCs in use, the firm predicts.”
The reality was that M$ shipped 200 million licences but 360 million PCs were shipped. By my calculations that’s 55%, not 94%. Oh, and NetApplications shows 38% of their hits are from “7″. Close, but no prize…
So, the monopoly is in trouble and Gartner should start looking “in the horse’s mouth” rather than just repeating M$’s prattle. Truth is that M$ has peaked on it’s OS-monopoly and is in decline. M$ cannot fool all the people all the time.
Gartner should check its predictions against real numbers. They are not even internally consistent. For instance they state that by the end of 2011, 635 million PCs were expected to have shipped with “7″ since 2009. Do the maths. In that time, 2.25 years, about 780 million PCs shipped, meaning “7″ replaced some 350 dead PCs and emerged on 285 million additional PCs, while another OS emerged on 145 million PCs. M$’s share is only 80% of PCs over that time, certainly not like 94% even lately. More likely the share has declined over time.
M$ is losing share to Apple, thin clients, OEMs shipping huge orders for GNU/Linux to governments and industry, and, of course, the mobile space. Nothing prevents that getting worse for M$. People love small cheap computers and the huge margins M$ has enjoyed do not fit in that space. People who have choice are choosing other products. Consumers often take what’s on retail shelves but they soon will have choice there as well.
In California, things are even more dramatic:
Here’s the sad story of “7″:
The trend is +1.2 percentage points per month. At that rate, it will take years to kill off XP in California and GNU/Linux will take over many of those remaining machines as they are converted to thin clients.