Robert Pogson

One man, closing all the windows.

Daily Archives / Monday, March 5, 2012

  • Mar 05 / 2012
  • 3
technology

1% is a Statistic. This is a Trend.

Wikimedia has just updated their web statistics. 1% share for Linux has not been seen since 2009 and there have only been three months where there has been a decrease in the share for Linux since 2009:
web stats for Linux from Wikimedia

235 million page requests last month were from Linux systems. 161.9 million from Android/Linux for 3.36% share and 1.52% for GNU/Linux. That other OS was clinging to monopoly at 74%. In April, 2009, that other OS was at 89.5%. Times are changing.

Not many of those page requests are from China where business in PC manufacturing is booming. China is now the third largest PC market in the world and mobile PCs have just overtaken desktop PCs there. Growth of all PCs shipped in China is 26% per annum whereas growth in the rest of the world is about flat. So, change is fastest outside old markets and that other OS will no longer be a monopoly within two years, if this situation persists. People want small cheap computers and that other OS does not fit the bill.

At what point will PCs running GNU/Linux be plentiful on retail shelves in mature markets? Android/Linux has no problem selling there at about 3% share on Wikimedia, so that great day will be in two or three years at the rate things are going. Expect a huge rate of increase then and an end to monopoly on the desktop. We’ve already seen plenty of “early adopters” migrating to GNU/Linux. Next will be the masses of users of IT disgusted with “up-selling”, malware and bloat.

NetApplications has identified “pre-rendering” of pages by Google Chrome as a systematic error in it web stats… They are terrified that Google’s Chrome browser will accelerate this trend in adoption. They can slow down their stats but they cannot change reality. FLOSS works for people.