Robert Pogson

According to this query on my Wikimedia database, that could be so:
“agents=> select sum(count) as c from data where string ilike ‘%x11%’ and not string ilike ‘%bot%’ and not string ilike ‘%crawl%’ and not string ilike ‘%spider%’ and string ilike ‘%fi-fi%’;
c
——
2961
(1 row)

agents=> select trunc(2961.0/19170.0*100.0,2) as share;
share
——-
15.44
(1 row)”

Well, I wonder how the competition is doing…
“agents=> select sum(count) as c from data where string ilike ‘%windows%’ and not string ilike ‘%bot%’ and not string ilike ‘%crawl%’ and not string ilike ‘%spider%’ and string ilike ‘%fi-fi%’;
c
—–
241
(1 row)

agents=> select sum(count) as c from data where string ilike ‘%mac%’ and not string ilike ‘%bot%’ and not string ilike ‘%crawl%’ and not string ilike ‘%spider%’ and string ilike ‘%fi-fi%’;
c
——-
12088
(1 row)…
mac | android | toos | gnulinux
——-+———+——+———-
63.05 | 20.20 | 1.25 | 15.44″

Well, maybe it means Finland is actually disloyal to M$… or even loyal to UNIX-like operating systems. */Linux is 35.64% of the sample. That other OS is the “1% number.

2011 was great for tablets, Apple’s tablets. 2012 will be different. Google, realizing Android/Linux tablets have respectable but not great share of the market, is gearing up to actively promote Android/Linux tablets. All the pieces needed for great competition will soon be in place:

• great products,
• great and numerous combatants, and
• great prices.

Google has until now only dabbled in selling products running Android/Linux. They were mostly proof of concept products. Now they are going to have an on-line store bearing the Google name while pushing Android/Linux tablets.

So, we are 1/4 the way through the year, and share now is about 40%. With Google’s move, Android/Linux is in position to exceed 50% by year’s end. The benefit to Google is that in addition to the revenue they get from Android/Linux devices directly, pumping out tablets pumps up their search business which is already huge but needs growth. Growth is in emerging markets, including tablets.

Immediate benefits to IT should be

• beating Apple’s silly prices for tablets,
• inspiring other players to lower prices, and
• ending the litigation/legal threats surrounding Android/Linux even faster than Oracle’s case is sinking.

There are reports that some makers of tablets are being squeezed in their margins. That should be alleviated in 2012 with much higher volumes than 2011. Growth in units shipped will likely reach 100%. The market has already gone far past the point of breaking even.

This is now a war about the limits to production. RIM and Apple cannot bring products to market faster than the Android army. Sooner or later the old guard will be swarmed by legions of small cheap computers. Google will have a rapid increase in users of IT to keep its growth rate up. The world will have better price/performance in IT.

Business will adopt tablets widely, and not just Apple’s. M$ will be “mentioned in reports” but not a factor in tablets. By the end of the year the battle will spill over into all things IT. Because the tablets largely do not run the Wintelish applications, web applications will become the place to be and Wintel will decline much more rapidly.

I wonder what would happen if Google were to analyze the cost/benefit of promoting Android/Linux and began to promote GNU/Linux more than it does already… That could really expand their search business in emerging markets much more rapidly if the cost of IT were lowered substantially by widespread adoption of GNU/Linux. Chuckle… 2012 is looking to be a great year.

When I was young, rms meant “root-mean-square” a form of averaging in alternating current meansurments. Now it means Richard Stallman, icon of FLOSS (Free/Libre Open Source Software) or simply, Free Software. He defined the term and began/codified a movement to make sharing OK/acceptable in software.

Sharing is obviously OK in India where RMS filled huge venues (thousands of attendees) for his talks. Being a billion people, India has tens of millions of computer geeks interested in good IT. Those people will do a lot to grease the gears of the Indian economy growing rapidly larger every year. Many of them will influence decisions to use FLOSS and use it themselves.

The tour of India is an inspiration to anyone who reads or hears the FUD the monopolies spread about Free Software. People are making personal investments in FLOSS all around the world.

see A Passage to India

For decades, the USA was the trend-setter in all things IT. In the last few years that has changed dramatically:

• USA now receives only 20% of PCs shipped by OEMs, mostly replacing old machines.
• USA received only 21.3% of 491million smartphones shipped in 2011.
• Dell’s revenue in USA is decreasing while revenue out of USA is increasing dramatically.
• M$’s smartphone share is less than 2% of units.
• M$’s share of PCs shipped is about 60% (525 million licences for “7″ in 10 quarters (52.5 million per quarter) of PCs produced at the rate of ~90million per quarter) and falling.
• M$’s share of PC installed base is about 75% and falling.

It follows that USA no longer calls the tune in IT. What is happening is that Governments, businesses and individuals are now getting choice in IT instead of the default options chosen by US companies.

Android/Linux is a global product made from the Linux kernel globally and Android developed by Google. It mostly runs on ARM (UK) but is invading the x86 space as well. Retail shelves around the world usually display Android/Linux devices prominently and in many regions, consumers and businesses can buy GNU/Linux PCs sometimes locally produced but also supplied by global OEMs.

The governments of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China), Malaysia, much of Europe, Cuba, Venezuela, Argentina, and Peru all use GNU/Linux and actively promote GNU/Linux in their countries. Brazil, Russia and India all have huge projects to promote GNU/Linux in schools. Only a few years ago, use of that other OS in government and business was a given but now many governments prefer FLOSS in their purchases.

USA has a lot of FLOSS development but is one of the lowest countries on Earth in usage of GNU/Linux on the desktop in business.
NetApplications: (USA, excluding Designated Market Area of San Francisco)

That other OS 85.08%
Mac 14.30%
Linux 0.62%

NetApplications does overcount that other OS but even by its measures, USA is an outlier (Cuba 3.9%, Finland 3%, France 1.7%,…) . You have to go to places like Viet Nam to find lower numbers for GNU/Linux.
This makes USA businesses less competitive and is part of the malaise felt in the economy of the USA. Rather than fattening M$’s coffers, USA should be investing in education and technology that will make the economy flourish. It is very strange that hatred of taxes is widespread yet many residents pay “the tax” for that other OS and are not aware it is optional…

2012 is a year of decision. Is the USA going to continue going down the drain of IT with M$ or will the USA wake up and give FLOSS a chance in education, government, business and retail spaces? The dependence on M$ is entirely artificial and once the dependence on desktops from M$ declines, so can IT be free from malware and get the best price/performance for IT. It’s not just about licences. It’s about IT designed to work for the users, not M$.

Munich’s migration to GNU/Linux desktops receives much derision in the USA, but has saved the city $millions in hardware and licensing expenditures while giving Munich first-rate IT and promoting local business. While Munich could have migrated more rapidly, they placed a premium on no downtime and cost was not the prime motivation. Independence from M$ was.

The whole world is becoming independent from M$ and so should the USA. The idea that the world cannot do without M$ is nonsense, a fable. The sooner USA grows up and realizes that the better off it will be.

Mayor Ude of Munich, Germany, has stated some facts about the effects of the migration from that other OS to GNU/Linux:

• Savings of 4 million Euros on hardware and software upgrades, thanks to free ($0) licences for GNU/Linux and lower hardware demands,
• great reduction of trouble tickets with GNU/Linux desktops (70 per month with that other OS and 46 per month with GNU/Linux), and

So much for the sycophants of M$ claiming costs had ballooned with GNU/Linux. Frankly, I am surprised they found so few problems with that other OS. Perhaps users “just rebooted” and made problems go away with that other OS. 46 per month with GNU/Linux is rather trivial for thousands of desktops. The help-desk people must nap a lot. I’ve had that many requests to reset passwords with ~100 PCs. I’ve had a few users who forgot passwords every weekend…

Good for the taxpayers and IT people of Munich. We know that cost was not the only consideration but it is a welcome side effect.