Robert Pogson

One man, closing all the windows.

M$ Shrinks

  • Jan 12 / 2012
  • 39
technology

M$ Shrinks

M$ will file its official numbers a week from now but IDC has a report on the number of PCs shipped which is closely tied to M$’s licensing revenue for operating systems.

The bottom line is that shipments of PCs (notebooks and desktops only) are about flat for 2011/2010, with just 1.6% growth. For Q4 only, there was a decline of 0.17%. Worse, for M$, USA, the most M$-friendly country on Earth, was off 6.7% for the quarter and 4.9% for the year. You know the USA, the country where people want to pay extra for words like “super-dooper” and such,
the country which consumes just 20% of PCs but gives M$ a huge share of revenue:
“Windows Division revenue was positively impacted by higher inventory levels within our distribution channels and higher attach rates, offset in part by the effect of higher growth in emerging markets, where average selling prices are lower, relative to developed markets, and by lower recognition of previously deferred Windows XP revenue.” (last report).

In Brazil the prices are double:
and M$ is much less popular.

mysql> select sum(b) from Sheet1 where a like ‘%pt-br%’ and a like ‘%NT 5.1%’ ;
+——–+
| sum(b) |
+——–+
| 5107 |
+——–+
1 row in set (0.09 sec)

mysql> select sum(b) from Sheet1 where a like ‘%pt-br%’ and a like ‘%NT 6.1%’ ;
+——–+
| sum(b) |
+——–+
| 2725 |
+——–+
1 row in set (0.08 sec)
mysql> select sum(b) from Sheet1 where a like ‘%pt-br%’ and a like ‘%X11%’ ;
+——–+
| sum(b) |
+——–+
| 1639 |
+——–+
1 row in set (0.08 sec)

In Brazil as in many other emerging countries, people are accepting GNU/Linux almost as much as they are accepting “7″ and they hang onto XP as long as they can. In Russia, Wikipedia gets more hits from Android than it does from all Windows.

mysql> select sum(b) from Sheet1 where a like ‘%ru-ru%’ and a like ‘%android%’ ;
+——–+
| sum(b) |
+——–+
| 1327 |
+——–+
1 row in set (0.08 sec)

mysql> select sum(b) from Sheet1 where a like ‘%ru-ru%’ and a like ‘%windows%’ ;
+——–+
| sum(b) |
+——–+
| 837 |
+——–+
1 row in set (0.09 sec)

With the channels full of prepaid licences and unearned income for XP drying up, there’s nowhere for M$’s client division to go but down.

See also The Register – Microsoft sharpening axe for marketing heads – report

See also Gartner’s take.

39 Comments

  1. kozmcrae

    “It’s about time to admit this to yourself, Koz: the amount of effort spent on FLOSS is, at best, a cost-benefit deficit. If not, what have we got? A diseased and broken desktop, which can’t even decide which audio stack it works off, for God’s sake, and a simplistic LAMP gateway model (which might as well be WAMP or LNMP or ****, because you could start from scratch and come up with the same thing in six months).”

    You lost it here Dr. Loser. You totally lost it. Whether the desktop is broken or not makes no difference. It’s the last, diminishing stronghold Microsoft has. As for the rest of your paragraph, where the Hell did your mind go? If any proprietary interest could produce a LAMP stack competitor, they would have by now. It’s not going to happen.

    Get used to it. FLOSS won.

  2. Robert Pogson

    Dr Loser wrote, “A diseased and broken desktop, which can’t even decide which audio stack it works off, for God’s sake”.

    I have seen no problems with audio in GNU/Linux. Debian GNU/Linux works well with several systems. I don’t even know or care which is the default on systems I install. An OS is supposed to be an interface between apps and hardware. GNU/Linux works very well by not making apps do OS-dependent things. There are apps that insist on tweaking hardware but that’s just poor design. Multiple sources of hardware or software are no problem for GNU/Linux but a strength.

  3. Robert Pogson

    Dr Loser wrote, “In 1995, even Win95 was using a version of the original BSD stack. I believe the crucial year in this case was 1993.”

    If that was true it is a sad commentary on M$ because in 2000 when I tested networking on various OS, GNU/Linux could max-out a 100mbits/s network and MacOS 8 and Lose ’98 could not. They were getting less than 10 mbits/s performance. It was about a 3:1 speed advantage. I guess M$ had other priorities. Even with XP and Vista, I read of folks not being able to max-out gigabits/s connections which is automatic with GNU/Linux.

  4. Dr Loser

    And, as a historical note, Linux had TCP/IP stack problems all of its own.

    I’d like to quote links at you, but at this point they are buried. So this is from (vague) memory.

    The original Linux TCP/IP stack was, I think, 0.99 from Berkeley. I’m not entirely sure about who implemented it. I do seem to recall that he pratted around for two years or so and took the standard FOSS “don’t bother me” attitude.

    This is where I get hazy, but around 1995 the entire stack was rewritten by somebody else. This, I believe is the stack that Linux still uses today.

    I’m not complaining about this: it’s the way it should have happened.

    I’m merely pointing out that, as usual, these unfounded claims of Linux superiority over M$ (in this case, Winsock) are utterly unfounded.

    The interesting thing, of course, is that in 1995 the two OSes were more or less on the same trajectory as far as network support was concerned. Today? Not so much.

  5. Dr Loser

    @Robert:

    “By the time of Lose ’95, GNU/Linux was more than ready to run the Internet and had a huge cost advantage over various UNIX OS and a huge performance advantage over that other OS, because it was using a terribly bad TCP stack.”

    If it was more than ready (and I suggest that you look at the state of Linux in 1995, or alternatively ask Linus himself for an authoritative opinion on the matter), then why didn’t this happen?

    And as usual you have your history wrong, old man. In 1995, even Win95 was using a version of the original BSD stack. I believe the crucial year in this case was 1993.

    Thanks for playing, but you lose.

  6. Dr Loser

    @oiaohm:

    “nt_jerkface No freebsd was doomed by the process of Unix.”

    Really? Why?

    “Unix process was take the BSD base and extend and not give back.”

    Well, there goes SVR4 then.

    “Key reason Linux got somewhere was the GPL license.”

    Excellent. So they didn’t need an installed base of hardware and associated support costs at all then, did they? Purity, that’s the win.

    “GNU was having more success in the 10 years before Linux than equal BSD Licensed products.”

    “Before Linux” would charitably be put at “before 1995″ (or whenever Slackware came out).

    Are you absolutely sure of your facts here, oiaohm? Because, from what I can read in the tea-leaves, gcc didn’t exist until 1987; which hardly matches that ten year thing.

    Prior to that, and I am too bored to look it up, I would assume that BSD used whatever Sun compiler was available at the time.

  7. Dr Loser

    @Koz:

    “The positive impact FLOSS has on this World is immeasurable. Yet you deny it has any impact. You act as though you’ve been given an icepick lobotomy.”

    Fascinating. What happened to the last ten years of boastful “measurable” statistics, then?

    It’s about time to admit this to yourself, Koz: the amount of effort spent on FLOSS is, at best, a cost-benefit deficit. If not, what have we got? A diseased and broken desktop, which can’t even decide which audio stack it works off, for God’s sake, and a simplistic LAMP gateway model (which might as well be WAMP or LNMP or ****, because you could start from scratch and come up with the same thing in six months).

    Oh, and a whole lot of bickering between freetards.

    I don’t tend to examine that too closely, because I am not qualified to deal with children.

    But it isn’t much, is it?

    The replacement cost would be minimal, and quite frankly worth the while.

  8. Dr Loser

    @Robert:

    Five days to go. Do you want to pick profit, or revenue? I’m standing by the > 1.5% on either.

    Double up! I’ll go with both ($20, as I recall), as long as you pledge $20 to a non-Melissa foundational anti-anything you care about in Africa charity if either or both doesn’t happen.

    Now, you are a caring and sensitive man, and I’m pretty sure you have $20 burning a hole in your pocket.

    How could charity possibly lose?

  9. Kozmcrae

    “Why be thankful to FLOSS?”

    Why be thankful to a bunch of people who gave you free software that you use anyway you wish. Software that you use without being aware that you would be working much harder without it.

    The lack of recognition the Cult of Microsoft shows towards FLOSS borders on mental illness. You don’t just ignore it, you actively belittle it at every instance. Yet it’s something you use whenever you turn on a computer that is connected to the Internet. That is, basically whenever you turn on a computer.

    The positive impact FLOSS has on this World is immeasurable. Yet you deny it has any impact. You act as though you’ve been given an icepick lobotomy.

  10. oiaohm

    nt_jerkface No freebsd was doomed by the process of Unix.

    Unix process was take the BSD base and extend and not give back. Key reason Linux got somewhere was the GPL license.

    GNU was having more success in the 10 years before Linux than equal BSD Licensed products.

    Remember BSD had a 10 years coding head start on Linux nt_jerkface. So BSD should have killed Linux easily. The question you have to answer is why Linux killed BSD. Should have been impossible 10 years head start should not have been catch-able.

    Something tipped the balance.

  11. Robert Pogson

    Would have does not make a fact. I think FreeBSD was not ready in time. If the world had depended on FreeBSD, M$ would have stepped in to “innovate”. By the time of Lose ’95, GNU/Linux was more than ready to run the Internet and had a huge cost advantage over various UNIX OS and a huge performance advantage over that other OS, because it was using a terribly bad TCP stack. I remember, in 2000, comparing GNU/Linux against MacOS 8 and Lose ’9x networking. GNU/Linux had 2 to 3 times the throughput over the same network on the same PCs. I presume FreeBSD could have done the job then but by then GNU/Linux was the front-runner. I don’t think the world could have afforded even a year’s delay in those days. M$ would have taken over the web easily without GNU/Linux.

  12. nt_jerkface

    The point is that the same internet growth that was built on Linux would have been built on FreeBSD.

    The internet does not exist thanks to Linux. It’s historical revisionism to believe that Linux was needed to stop the ebil Microsoft from taking over the internet.

  13. Robert Pogson

    nt_jerkface wrote, “And FreeBSD fits into this belief……how exactly?”

    FreeBSD evolved from 386BSD which evolved from BSD UNIX shortly after GNU/Linux started. FreeBSD never had the following that GNU/Linux had and also uses Samba for interfacing with that other OS. The web stats from Wikipedia show *BSD is about 0.25% of the GNU/Linux hits. MacOS would be a better comparison and it doesn’t even try to compete with M$ in its own theatre of operations.

  14. nt_jerkface

    I seriously believe that if GNU/Linux had not developed, the world would be M$’s oyster because no computer could communicate with any other unless it ran M$’s software.

    And FreeBSD fits into this belief……how exactly?

  15. Kozmcrae

    “If GNU had never come to pass, and if Linux had never jumped on the back of GNU, do you seriously doubt that we would have the Internet in some equivalent form?”

    We sure would have the Internet in some form and we would be falling all over ourselves in praise of its awesomeness. Even if Microsoft had managed to take it over in 1995 most of us would still be quite happy with the “wonder” of the Internet and its UI, the WWW (or its Microsoft counter part). We would because we would have nothing else to compare it to.

    Your “electron” quip was nice. FLOSS is sometimes hard to notice. It doesn’t blow its own horn in your face like Microsoft does with its software. Maybe asking the Cult of Microsoft to show some respect for it is too much to ask. But there is no need to belittle it. It does work for you and you are productive because of it. But you (CoM) piss on it every chance you get.

  16. Robert Pogson

    Dr Loser wrote, “If GNU had never come to pass, and if Linux had never jumped on the back of GNU, do you seriously doubt that we would have the Internet in some equivalent form?”

    I seriously believe that if GNU/Linux had not developed, the world would be M$’s oyster because no computer could communicate with any other unless it ran M$’s software. UNIX OS before GNU/Linux were too expensive to run the web as we know it. Licences were $1000 when I checked back in 1985. GNU/Linux allowed nodes on the web to grow almost without limitation.

  17. Dr Loser

    @Koz:

    Why be thankful to FLOSS?

    If I spent my morning saying “Good day! How’s it going? Are we feeling charged up today” to every single electron that pulses through my toaster, then I’d never get a single thing done.

    Other than, obviously, being polite to the electrons in question.

    Now, let me ask you a serious question, and I expect a serious answer.

    If GNU had never come to pass, and if Linux had never jumped on the back of GNU, do you seriously doubt that we would have the Internet in some equivalent form?

    If not, then we are indeed indebted.

    Otherwise, it’s just another of those things. No need for respect. It’s just a choice of infrastructure.

  18. Kozmcrae

    “So run along sonny, the adults are talking…

    BTW you still havent answered my second challenge, How does not having FOSS stop me from composing music with my commercial software?”

    Run along sonny? You’re easily amused.

    Second challenge? Who said anything about music? Not me. Does FLOSS have anything that will run that robotic hand that gives you so much pleasure? The hell if I know. I just know that you, like everyone who turns on a computer and connects to the Internet, should be damn thankful for FLOSS.

    Show some respect for FLOSS @ldman, it enables you as much as your music software does.

  19. Dr Loser

    And we can be redundant with a million peasants, each with their own abacus.

    It isn’t quite that simple, Robert.

  20. Robert Pogson

    ch wrote, “Redundancy costs more, requires more energy and space – and is a very good idea for everything critical.”

    We can be redundant with less energy and space using ARM and Linux rather than Wintel.

  21. Dr Loser

    @aikiwolfie:

    Well, there’s not really much to discuss in the article, is there? Unless you count Robert showing off his new Postgresql skills, which is adorable but makes for rather dull reading. He’ll get bored with it soon, no doubt, and return to accountancy, which is obviously his first love.

  22. aikiwolfie

    I just love how people are discussing the article. Bitter hatred of one another doesn’t solve technology problems. Look at the mess Apple are getting themselves into. They’re now being sued for extortion in Spain because they can’t tolerate a little competition from a company nobody has ever heard of.

    And Microsoft’s strategy against Android? What happens when device OEMs stop using Android? They’re not showing an interest in Windows Phone 7 and there’s at least half a dozen other mobile device OSs around right now that are ready for market. Even Intel is planning on pushing it’s own Linux based OS for it’s new Atom processor.

    Both Apple and Microsoft’s resources would be better spent building better products.

  23. ch

    “Usually, the best IT is also the cheapest, uses the least energy, produces the least waste and takes up the least space, all good things.”

    Could you please elaborate on that statement ? Hint: Redundancy costs more, requires more energy and space – and is a very good idea for everything critical.

  24. oldman

    “You’re not being lynched @ldman. You just have a persecution complex or something. You seem to go for the drama. ”

    Oh I want referring to your pathetic attempts to intimidate me, I was calling pog out on what I see is his hatred driven hypocracy. You stuck you nose into a conversation that you had no business is, and I assumed that you agreed with Pog’s hypocracy.

    “You need to respect FLOSS @ldman. Don’t laugh. Disrespecting anything you depend on is a good way to get kicked in the ass.”

    What I do and say is none of your business Mr. K. As far as ass kicking is concerned, all the pathetic noise that you generate in my direction doesn’t even qualify as ass kicking where I come from.

    So run along sonny, the adults are talking…

    BTW you still havent answered my second challenge, How does not having FOSS stop me from composing music with my commercial software?

    I am waiting, Mr. K.

    “Oh, and don’t act so dumb, you know as much about FLOSS as I do.”

    Actually I know MORE than you do about FOSS Mr. K.

    And as they say, familiarity breeds contempt.

  25. Kozmcrae

    “So obviously it is OK to lynch someone who you don’t like , eh. Mr. K?”

    You’re not being lynched @ldman. You just have a persecution complex or something. You seem to go for the drama.

    The problems is you just have no respect for FLOSS. Must have something to do with being free I guess. I’m not saying you have to like it, just give it the respect it deserves for making your life in IT so much better than it would be if you had only proprietary software to choose from.

    You need to respect FLOSS @ldman. Don’t laugh. Disrespecting anything you depend on is a good way to get kicked in the ass.

    Show some respect for FLOSS and you won’t get “lynched” so often. Oh, and don’t act so dumb, you know as much about FLOSS as I do.

  26. oldman

    “What have I done not to deserve this?

    The path is longer than I thought, Master.”

    It is My dear doctor a path that none should have to follow.

    Mr. K. is a sad case. IMHO He confuses this floating bull session with real life.

    As far as his hatred is concerned…

    Meh.

  27. Dr Loser

    @Oldman:

    I get the feeling that Koz hates you, personally, on a deep and visceral and ultimately inexplicable level.

    What have I done not to deserve this?

    The path is longer than I thought, Master.

  28. oldman

    “@ldman is full of himself once again.”

    And of course we know what you are full of Mr. K.

  29. oldman

    “I’m being nice. You should have seen what I deleted from this post.”

    So obviously it is OK to lynch someone who you don’t like , eh. Mr. K?

  30. oldman

    ” Will it take that before you see that supporting/using/paying M$ is wrong?”

    The only wrong that is under discussion here is your willingness to abridge the due process rights of a company that you have what is in the end a hatred for.

    Remember, the same laws that you allpaud being circumvented in this case also protect you, or have you forgotten the old saying

    “As ye sow,
    so Shall ye reap…”

  31. Kozmcrae

    “Distortion of trade is distortion of trade Robert Pogson.”

    @ldman repeating himself is @ldman repeating himself. That is to say, he is saying nothing at all, nothing at all. Somehow he thinks that saying something twice has some kind of special meaning. The reader is supposed to fill in that special meaning left unsaid by @ldman. @ldman is full of himself once again.

    I’m being nice. You should have seen what I deleted from this post.

  32. Robert Pogson

    oldman wrote, “Distortion of trade is distortion of trade Robert Pogson”.

    By that logic killing murderers is murder and jailing thieves is wrong too… It does not compute, oldman. I help little old ladies across streets. It’s the right thing to do. The idea that morality has no place in IT is wrong. Usually, the best IT is also the cheapest, uses the least energy, produces the least waste and takes up the least space, all good things. Accepting monopoly when it is totally unnecessary to do IT within a monopoly is foolish as well as wrong. Perhaps monopoly provides you enough perks that it seems beneficial but when push comes to shove and M$ decides to reap what it has sown, your organization will be in a very deep hole to escape whatever the extortionist demands. Will it take that before you see that supporting/using/paying M$ is wrong?

  33. oldman

    “I generally disapprove of that when it distorts trade, but in this case it fixes a distortion that M$ promotes.”

    Distortion of trade is distortion of trade Robert Pogson. Any other stance is IMHO hypocritical.

  34. Clarence Moon

    Sort of like handicapping a faster horse by adding weight to the jockey’s belt? That could help Linux in Brazil, I think, but it doesn’t do much for Brazilians.

  35. Robert Pogson

    ch wrote, “definitely not double”. That’s why I took the snaps and checked currency convertors. The prices are double and partly because of taxes. Brazil actively encourages local industry by taxing imports heavily. I generally disapprove of that when it distorts trade, but in this case it fixes a distortion that M$ promotes.

  36. ch

    “Microsoft sharpening axe for marketing heads”

    Finally. MS’s marketing has been a bad joke for years now.

  37. Robert Pogson

    James Bozman wrote, “Check your post. There are mySQL commands in it.”

    Yes, documenting a search of a database of useragents and counts from Wikimedia.

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