This afternoon, HP announced they are open-sourcing WebOS… I was pretty impressed with Leo’s demonstration of WebOS but HP could not do it on its own. Now, the world will get a look at the code and see whether it can fly. I expect it will and we will have another choice in case Android/Linux runs aground somehow. It’s all good, another source of supply. We know WebOS has Linux underneath and here’s the code. It’s a lot like GNU/Linux if you ask me.

This is a smart move on HP’s part. It asserts some independence from M$, contributes to the open source community and shares with the world a polished technology. I would bet the investment is returned promptly. They may be able to sell lots of client PCs at higher margins once WebOS takes hold. HP already has ports for ARM and x86.

How’s that for fast turnaround on a prediction?

From M$’s point of view, they are now surrounded. OEMs of all kinds have products to ship running something else and M$ is a year away from shipping anything that might be competitive. I can see an excited young engineer telling his boss they can have this running on an eeePC by noon tomorrow. I can see shipments ready to go on x86 next week. GNU/Linux already works on x86… Chuckle. This thing will run on any PC soon.

There is rumour that Bill Gates is considering a return to CEO of M$. Many expect he will give new life to M$ but there’s nothing M$ can do to adapt to changes. M$ has a huge installed base. If M$ changes their current customers will hate them for it. If they don’t change, they lose out on future customers. Changing the captain won’t save the ship at this stage.

There is no new product that will give M$ monopoly in smart thingies or small cheap computers. The “ultrabook” was the last stab at that and they didn’t sell. Android and iOS dominate the mobile space and the world doesn’t need that other OS any longer. LibreOffice is $free, FREE and thriving. The best M$ can do is slow the sinking, not stop it.

The one thing Bill can do better than Steve is cheat but the world won’t let that happen again. Bill has sold his shares. He should retire for good. If philanthopy and nuclear power don’t work out, there’s always gardening. OEMs are not stupid. They can see that OEMs shipping Android/Linux are not losing their shirts. OEMs shipping Wintel are losing their shirts or cannot afford to patch them. HP’s net revenue from personal systems was 5.9% of revenue. What kind of partnership is it when M$ makes a ten times larger margin? OEMs can make their own conclusions about the value of “partnership” with M$. There’s nothing Bill can do to strengthen that partnership except give OEMs more revenue. Fat chance. Chances of M$’s recovery with Bill Gates at the helm? No chance.

I know it’s illegal in Canada to claim knowledge of future events but I am allowed to think and extrapolate from what’s happening now to a few months down the road, so here goes:

• M$ will release “8″ early for ARM. They have to and because there’s less lock-in on ARM (none), they can. I think panic has set in Redmond and they are extremely anxious to push something out the door before Android/Linux declares victory over Apple. I would bet the ARMed version comes out months before the x86 version. This is new territory and will increase divisions within Wintel because many of the ARMed players are outside the x86 camp. “Partners” will be feeling betrayed. This will also put another nail in the coffin of x86 desktops. If different is OK for M$ in mobile, it is OK with consumers. Welcome to Android/Linux and GNU/Linux folks on retail shelves everywhere.
• GNU/Linux will arrive on retail shelves everywhere in every format. This is inevitable and we saw a few more devices available in 2011. 2012 will open the floodgates. M$ blinked by going to ARM. The world noticed and GNU/Linux will be able to rush in through the opened door. Retailers and OEMs will take the opportunity to make more money selling products running on FLOSS. The x86 OEMs are hungry and wanting to feed at the same trough the ARMed OEMs have been feeding at, both Android/Linux and GNU/Linux.
• LibreOffice will overtake OpenOffice.org. The flood of factory-installed GNU/Linux systems will trigger the change. Consumers and businesses will see the advantages of PCs equipped with an office suite at no extra cost.
• ARM will invade the server space. The products became available in 2011. They will be adopted widely in 2012 from small servers on LANs to racks and rooms and facilities full of them. It just makes sense that fanless units at lower prices will be popular and the superior power consumption will be the deciding factor in large roll-outs. Software can be ported. Power consumption cannot be lower with x86 except at much greater cost and in the future. ARM has lower power consumption now. There is no need to wait on Intel. M$ isn’t even interested in this space so it will be GNU/Linux all the way.
• Google will win over Oracle lifting a cloud from Android/Linux. At the same time Barnes and Noble will trounce M$ lifting a cloud from Linux. This will inflict a death blow on software patents. Legislators and courts will take note of the stupidity of software patents and trash them.
• The result of all these changes is that M$’s bottom line will take a serious hit. No growth is visible. A downward slide will begin. Once there is competition on retail shelves, M$ will have to reduce prices seriously to compete. In servers, energy consumption and space will dictate ARM will play a big role. Once GNU/Linux clients are widely found on LANs, businesses will see less need for AD and servers that run it. Forget the cloud. M$ has no monopoly there. It’s hard to put a number on the combined effect but I expect it will be of the order of $1billion in the client division and server division, about the same as the cost of paying off the OEMs producing GNU/Linux netbooks. This time no payoff is possible. M$ has no leverage on the non-x86 OEMs. Even Barnes and Noble fought back… Chuckle. With the discredit M$’s software patents will receive, the x86 OEMs will be less fearful of M$ in every way. As the x86 consumer PCs subside, x86 OEMs will look to GNU/Linux to increase margins.

All in all, it looks to be another great year for FLOSS. Consumers will finally realize they have a choice and make the choice.

After Duqu ravaged systems running XP to “7″ for a month, M$ finally issues patches. Isn’t it great that the malware artists still have a few days to roam freely over hundreds of millions of PCs until December 13? That must give sysadmins who claim to have never had an attack of malware some sleepless nights…

I recommend Debian GNU/Linux for full nights of restful sleep.