Robert Pogson

One man, closing all the windows.

Daily Archives / Thursday, October 20, 2011

  • Oct 20 / 2011
  • 49

For a Fun Time, Check Out SJVN’s Take on “8″

He compares it to Lose 1. That’s right, “Twenty-five plus years of user-interface development and this, this, is what we get!? Scary isn’t it?”

Chuckle… That’s harsh, but true and funny. I have been around about as long as SJVN and I have seen it all, too. M$’s latest and greatest stuff has been somewhere, someplace, sometime earlier.

Take that “transparent” AeroGlas desktop stuff. Where have we seen transparency before? Gimp. Gimp has been able to create images with transparency for many years.

Of course, rectangular regions of the screen called “windows” have been around since the earliest binary computers. I remember working on digital instruments that dated from WWII in their concepts that had a “window” control. You turned a dial and the window’s dimension changed. Then M$ decided to name its OS Windows and we are stuck with confusion about innovation ever since. M$ was successful at snowing the USPTO in those days but the welcome is wearing thin. I doubt the USPTO is really enjoying all those software patents coming back for re-examination. Sounds like unnecessary work, eh?

I really cannot blame M$ for reinventing the wheel. Everyone does it but most people are honourable and don’t claim it as something novel.

Check out SJVN – Windows 8: A bad bet

He’s projecting a fiasco of Vista-like proportions. I hope he’s right. I enjoyed Vista. ;-)

  • Oct 20 / 2011
  • 1

M$’s Desktop Monopoly Sinking Slowly

In Q3 2011, IDC reported that PC shipments are up 3.6% but M$’s profits on the client division of that other OS are down 1% from Q3 2010. Indeed, of 91 million PCs shipped, M$ had revenue of $4.868 billion, just $53.49 each. Why do they bother? Oh, yeah, it’s so they can convince folks they actually need that other stuff to keep the desktops running. At the same time they had to advertise 8% more to keep selling stuff.

The real story is not desktops. That’s small change. The real number of personal computers shipped was not a pesky 91million but hundreds of millions of smart thingies. M$ has 3.8% share of units shipped in the smart phone market and Europe alone ate 44million of those and the world is expected to eat 472million of those in 2011. So, the pie is exploding and M$ is shrinking…

As long as M$ is outside the mainstream growth of IT, it will rapidly shrink in market share. Meanwhile Android/Linux is expected to have 40% share of smart phones and growing rapidly. Tablets are the same story. Dozens of suppliers have not signed up with M$ and they produce the majority of tablets. Apple was at 80% share of tablets last year. In 2011, they are below 60% and could be at 50% after Christmas. That leaves Linux under Android on ARM and under GNU on x86/amd64 taking serious share from M$ and limiting growth. Even business, which is seriously locked in is in no rush to switch to “7″. This could get ugly for M$ very quickly.

  • Oct 20 / 2011
  • 14

Forget “8″. “7″ Is Not A Good Investment

Computerworld’s survey reveals that only one quarter of businesses have migrated to “7″ and most are still using XP. The reasons are many, but they all boil down to one thing. The migration to “7″ is not a good investment. They get nothing out of it that justifies the expense/effort. If what M$ has been telling the world, that “7″ will save them money, then businesses would be rushing to change but they are not. Many of the respondents do think “7″ is a good OS but there is no reason to spend money just to have it.

  • Some are locked in to IE6 as M$ intended when it made IE6 incompatible with the web.
  • Some are keeping PCs for five years because they work.
  • Some have apps or hardware not compatible with “7″.
  • Some just don’t have the money because business has slowed.
  • Some are just going to stick with XP as long as they can.

If you add up all the reasons not to migrate to “7″ you come to a pretty compelling list to avoid this problem in the future and migrate to GNU/Linux when they finally do migrate. All the problems would be the same and they won’t have to go through this whiplash again.

  • GNU/Linux releases are not tied to any wave of hardware.
  • GNU/Linux releases are not tied to any version of applications.
  • You can run, examine, modify, and distribute the code as you wish.
  • GNU/Linux is standards-compliant.
  • GNU/Linux has a licensing fee of $0.
  • GNU/Linux has no deadlines.

On top of that, you can say good-bye to Patch Tuesday, re-re-reboots, phoning home, the BSA, salesmen and many other annoyances of that other OS. The Wintel treadmill is getting old. Get off it.

see Windows 7 is on a (slow) roll

  • Oct 20 / 2011
  • 1

Clouds on the Horizon

Gartner has listed 10 strategic technologies they recommend businesses check out to adapt to change over the next few years. The interesting thing to me is that none of them are M$-centric. “8″ isn’t in there, for instance.

  • Media tablets and beyond
  • mobile-centric applications and interfaces
  • Contextual and Social User Experience
  • Internet of Things
  • App Stores
  • Next-generation Analytics
  • Big Data
  • In-memory computing/flash
  • Extremely low-energy servers
  • Cloud computing

In infrastructure, it’s all about doing more on the servers and on the servers, it’s all about efficiency and M$ need not apply. The world can make its own software and hardware and does not need M$ slowing them down to tax them. All of the things in this list are happening now and without any influence from M$. By the time “8″ arrives, the world will have set its own course. A larger part of IT will be based on ARM hardware and FLOSS for infrastructure with Android/Linux frequently used on mobile devices and GNU/Linux on stationary devices.

M$ has promised “8″ on ARMed devices but will anyone care? They won’t have anything on ARMed servers and Phoney “7″ flopped. The world already has plenty of choices and only a fraction will choose one more. On x86/amd64 devices, that other OS will have a shrinking role because all this mobile stuff is web-centric and can be accessed from any platform. The world will choose the least expensive or best performing, all else being equal.

see Gartner – Top 10 Strategic Technologies for 2012

  • Oct 20 / 2011
  • 1

Gaddafi Captured

There are reports he was captured at Sirte and has been rushed to hospital for treatment of wounds.

see BBC

see Al Jazeera

That should end the matter unless his sons try to fight to the bitter end.

UPDATE Apparently the first reports were false. Gaddafi was killed and his body transported to Misrata.

UPDATE Further information is that Gaddafi was captured alive but killed on the spot by out of control fighters. This is a black mark on the revolution but I doubt many will shed a tear. One son was also killed and Saif was captured separately. The French air force apparently blocked the escaping vehicles carrying Gaddafi.

Surely this must be the end of the fight. Now comes the rebuilding.