Robert Pogson

One man, closing all the windows.

Daily Archives / Tuesday, August 2, 2011

  • Aug 02 / 2011
  • 1

Matt Asay FUDs Google

Matt Asay has often bothered me with his off-and-on attitudes to FLOSS and GNU/Linux. It seems to me that he sees everything as winner takes all when cooperation does work. His recent article, Google dangles needle over Web Bubble 2.0

And no one notices is way off base. He sees Google buying companies as some anti-competitive act when in reality it is a generous means of funding a great idea and running with it. Look at Android. It was a brilliant idea and Google ran with it and is doing the heavy lifting against Apple and Oracle and M$ to bring it to fruition. Would Android have gone anywhere without Google’s investment, manpower and brand recognition? Would dozens of OEMs have taken a risk on a smaller outfit?

The reality is Google competes on price/performance and gives everyone a good deal unlike M$ which murders businesses which dare to compete with M$. Google is a good corporate citizen giving back to the world generously and really making the world a better place.

When Matt Asay writes, “Despite Facebook’s heft in social networking and Google’s shadow over most everything else, VCs continue to throw money into Bubble 2.0.

Will Google come back to haunt them?”, he’s spreading FUD. Google prospers from every new activity on the web because every site is a potential advertiser or advertising space. The web is so diverse no one really cares what Google does as long as it continues to provide free search and grease everyone’s skids. The web would be a disaster if it weren’t for search and free search is the catalyst that makes it all work.

What shadow? Google is a light unto our path.

  • Aug 02 / 2011
  • 1

Phoney FUD

Sigh. Even CNN is running some FUD these days. A report is all over the web finding that iPhone users will stick with Apple and Android users wished they were iPhone users. The research?
“In a survey of 216 mobile phone users conducted one recent week in Minneapolis” at one place in the city…

There’s a good sample of the universe, eh? With such a small sample of the universe the conclusions are quite invalid. For example, if you stop somewhere and ask passers-by a question with a yes/no answer, nothing prevents you from getting the first 216 saying “yes” and the next 216 saying “no”, although that is unlikely. The standard deviation of such counting experiments goes ~ N1/2, so counts like 20 – 30 which appeared in the study are +/- 5 or so. When you consider that USA gives Apple twice the popularity as the rest of the world and last time I was there, Minneapolis was in USA, the sample is extremely biased and conclusions based on it are unreliable. Still, they are all over the web…

The question, “Which phone will you buy next?”, was found to be 64% iPhone in 139 counts and 17% Android in 36 counts. The counts could just as easily have been 139 – 12 = 59% of 216 and 36 + 6 = 19% of 216, not much different. A four-fold ratio in the results could really be a statistical error of a real ratio less than 2.5. So the survey, it’s conclusion and the story are just about worthless.

Real global data, not a survey, show Android having overtaken iPhone a while back and growing rapidly against the iPad. 30% share of tablets and 30 point growth rate per annum could mean overtaking iPad in a few months.

see, if you want a laugh, Survey: iPhone retention 94% vs. Android 47%

  • Aug 02 / 2011
  • 13

Evolution of the Operating System

In Nature, we believe that diversity of living things allows the survival of the fittest to gradually change the ecosystem as conditions change. This is happening in information technology. Moore’s Law and corollaries which describe the production of every more powerful, compact and inexpensive devices in display, computation, storage, memory and networking are relentlessly allowing smaller and cheaper computers to do amazing things for people. There is no longer

  • a need to have a large heavy expensive box nearby for computation,
  • a need for cabling to tie computing devices to the network,
  • a need to have any single stack of software to do everything, and
  • a need to use a particular kind of processor in IT.

Continue Reading

  • Aug 02 / 2011
  • 14

Fujitsu’s CTO: People Want Small Cheap Computers

His idea is more or less in line with mine about the format. People love small cheap computers. Apart from the expense of the touch-screen, the rest of a tablet is ~$100 worth of parts, so we get small and cheap and the things work. He’s right on. Consumers want content to consume. They rarely generate content except to upload a picture or two and a tablet can do that easily.

“Reger cites the success of iPad as evidence of this. He is convinced that the disadvantages of the PC will help ensure that tablet devices sales will crossover PC/notebook sales for consumers in 2016 or so”

see Tablets will overtake consumer PCs, says Fujitsu CTO

Customers want to consume content, not produce it…