Robert Pogson

One man, closing all the windows.

Wintel is Squeezed in Wonderful Ways

  • Jun 23 / 2011
  • 13
technology

Wintel is Squeezed in Wonderful Ways

Digitimes reports that there is a looming shortage of manufacturing capacity for hard drives. It seems “the cloud” is soaking up lots of storage, making it more difficult for Wintel to find hard drives on which to place that other OS and its EULA… ;-) This will throttle the installation of “7″ on enterprise replacement units. The shortfall was 10 million units in Q2 of 2011 and is expected to rise to 15 million units in Q3. Enterprises may delay roll-outs of “7″ or they may choose thin clients or SSD devices or move to the cloud sooner. Any way, opportunities for GNU/Linux increase while Wintel withers. 25 million units comes to something like $250 million shortfall for licences for that other OS and more for M$’s office suite. That’s something like a 5% drop in revenue. It’s all good.

see Hard drive supply gap estimated to widen to 15-20 million units in 3Q11

Further, manufactures have noticed that tablets don’t use Wintel
“Wistron chairman Simon Lin, on June 22, commenting on the impact of tablet PCs, described Apple’s launch of iPad as a never-seen move, and it will take some time to figure out how to counter the move. He also believes that Apple has subverted the PC industry’s habits of depending heavily on Wintel, and 2011 is year for re-evaluation for the PC industry. “

see PC industry should be re-evaluated, says Wistron chairman

Here’s a hint, Wistron and other Wintel “partners”. Go with Free Software like Android/Linux or GNU/Linux and free yourselves and your customers from the burdens of Wintel. The world wants small cheap computers and if you don’t supply them, someone else will.

see also, Notebook industry may not see peak season effects in 2H11

13 Comments

  1. oiaohm

    Ray really Telstra is getting cold feat over it.

    Telstra is starting to wonder if they are going to bring retaliation on themselves.

  2. oiaohm

    Eep I just looked up the Samsung i5800 Galaxy 3 to buy it in the USA. $260.99 for a phone I class a junk. Remember USD and AUD are about one to one at the moment. So that is a 180 dollar markup. Hate the see the price for a phone I don’t class as junk.

    I think I found the problem Ray. USA has nothing like this that I can find http://www.shopbot.com.au so we have vendors blood fighting on price and only pocketing a decent profit from the device.

  3. oiaohm

    Ray depends what country I can buy sub 100 AUD android phones here. So sub 100AUD smartphones are here for me. Ok they are not much chop due to the speed processor. About 150 to 199 AUD you can buy a decently performing smart phone.

    Ie I don’t call Samsung i5800 Galaxy 3 decent performing that I can by for 80AUD + shipping that comes to about 95 dollars. So yes just under the 100. Unlocked. Locked in a plan I can gets as low a 20 dollars. There is also Huawei G6600 at 75 AUD also unlocked. Both android and both technically class smartphone.

    Yes I am doing a 100 dollar smartphone in my hands. I have 2 to choose from. I really would not recommend either. Save an 150 to 200 dollars and you can get a way more decent smartphone.

    My questions these days is not sub 100 dollars my question is if sub 50 is possible. Their are signs it might be.

    Contrarian “Except that it costs about double and ends up being just a netbook that falls apart if you drop it.”

    In fact no it don’t cost you double. Some netbook makers are planning on changing over for a very good technical reason.

    The fall apart if you drop it is the technical reason. Anyone who has had a HTC phones that take huge amounts of force to break it truly. But not a huge amount for it to split into pieces. Falls apart on impact. This divides the impact forces. If it cannot divide like a iphone a corner impact gets the full weight of the device behind it. Part of the reason why iphones are so likely to crack screens and do other internal damage to themselves.

    Basically do you want it to live threw impact with ground or not. If you want it to live you will want it to split so the full weight of device cannot be focused on one point. Then you will want to be able to put it back into one piece without having to pay a tech. Docking split is one of those points to increase chance of living threw a drop.

    Yes tablet with portable docking station starts looking really nice based on drop tolerance when compared to a normal netbook if you look part the being in pieces on ground. Ie its not the number of pieces on ground it if the pieces still work and you can put it back in one piece. There is not point having a device still in one piece and it be dead when it could have split and lived.

  4. oldman

    “Compare price/performance for a smart thingie and an ATX box or x86 notebook and you will be blown away. ”

    Alas Pog, I fear that price sensitive folks who try to stretch mobile devices into desktop applications will be disappointed, especially on the low end.

    Small and cheap is still in the end small and cheap.

  5. Ray

    Most likely, they’re going to switch to Windows 7 + SSDs.

  6. Robert Pogson

    Prices for smart thingies are falling rapidly as all the first-adopters are satisfied and many millions of price-sensitive folks enter the market. Good tablets using ARM+Android are less than $200 and you can hang a keyboard/mouse on them. Smart phones are getting cheaper too and you can hang a keyboard, mouse, and monitor on them. Compare price/performance for a smart thingie and an ATX box or x86 notebook and you will be blown away. You get perfectly adequate hardware for what it would cost you to get software licences with that other OS.

  7. Contrarian

    “So its a Tablet until you connect the optional keyboard dock then it acts exactly the same as a netbook/notebook.”

    Except that it costs about double and ends up being just a netbook that falls apart if you drop it. Pogson is kind of a minimalist and must be sorely torn between hoping that Microsoft cannot get any action and having to pay so much for such fluff.

  8. oiaohm

    Contrarian Tablet too clumsy yep makers agree so you are now seeing items that are Tablet with optional keyboard. So its a Tablet until you connect the optional keyboard dock then it acts exactly the same as a netbook/notebook.

    $60 for 1TB is for 3.5 style that don’t fit in laptop.

    Its currently going in the direction of 400 USD wholesale for 1TB 2.5 drives as required for laptops and other small devices.

    Guess where the short fall is. 2.5 production not 3.5.

    Don’t expect to see huge hard drives in decent priced netbooks notebooks and tablets for Christmas this year unless something with the supply issue turns around.

    Please note the disaster in japan has not helped things. Since the best quality ram chips were produced in the area that is now off limits. Those ram chips were required for harddrive controller boards. So now more hard drive controller boards will fail in production. So short fall in supply is going to be made worse or suspect drives will appear on the market. Yes a 3.5 can use bigger ram chips it has the space. Bigger the chips the lower the grade production plant you need to make them dependable.

  9. Robert Pogson

    The “notebook” is just too clumsy for many tasks: tablets typically weigh about 0.7 kg while a notebook typically weighs about 2kg. Keyboards have weight. Batteries have weight. Many tasks occur after movement. Moving mass around is not what people want from IT. The notebook was an improvement over ATX computers. The tablet is an improvement over notebooks. Think folks giving presentations while travelling.

  10. Contrarian

    “Enterprises may delay roll-outs of “7″ or they may choose thin clients or SSD devices or move to the cloud sooner”

    I would doubt that this would have any such effect. Corporations do not make such decisions on that sort of a basis. As to shortages, they may very well occur, but the price realization for HD seems to become more an more absurd as time goes on:

    http://www.geeks.com/details.asp?InvtId=0F10383&utm_source=geekmail&utm_medium=daily_html&utm_content=Main3&utm_campaign=TSS20I10a_22jun11

    $60 for 1TB!

    Also, aside from “Who’s Whistron?” there was the quote:

    “Lin pointed out that … tablet PCs … will not replace notebooks.”

    which is what I believe, too. The tablet is just too clumsy for many tasks.

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