Robert Pogson

After the previous assaults nearly overwhelmed protestors in Cairo, tens of thousands camped at Tahrir and the night was peaceful. Today hundreds of thousands (perhaps a million) filled the square. Men and women gathered in great numbers in Cairo and Alexandria. This day was billed as the Day of Departure and although the stated purpose of seeing the departure of President Mubarak was denied, the demonstrators seem enthusiastic and well organized. They have strongly secured every approach and the army helped. Only a few hundred pro-Mubarak protesters appeared and were turned back.

The plan seems to be to continue the protests until Mubarak departs. While Mubarak and his supporters have strong levers, as long as the army does not disperse protestors the cities will be mostly shut down indefinitely. Neither side seems to have resources to continue indefinitely in this standoff but it is very uncertain which side will blink first. Some opinions are that the public acknowledgment of protest on national television and national and international discussions point to a widening crack in the status quo. As long as order is maintained the government seems incapable of using force. Police/security have harassed television crews but crews immersed in the protest are protected. Al Jazeera has had its studio/office ransacked. CNN is operating at Tahrir as is Al Jazeera. The national network broadcast streets filled with protestors. This is unprecedented coverage.

With re-supply and shift-work protests can continue for days. Business and the wealthy are torn between losing revenue from tourism and business and risking chaos if Mubarak leaves. That the protests are peaceful without the harassment of the government, I would bet that the chaos, if any, will be fruitful. It is clear that the protestors have broad support. I expect citizens will find it better to support the protest in even greater numbers to push the protest over the top. If tomorrow the protestors march to the palace, anything can happen. The army seems to be the pivot. If they escort the protestors instead of blocking them, the protest will only gain strength as the government will only lose strength. In that case change will happen sooner rather than later. Today, several talks about how change can happen may lead to agreements tomorrow.