2010 December 13 archive at Robert Pogson

Archive for December 13th, 2010

Reality Check

Published by Robert Pogson December 13th, 2010 in technology. 0 Comments

I came across a prediction from 2006 that Vista would have 40% share by 2008. Now, we are in 2010 and Vista +”7″ is still less than 40%. Granted, predicting is an uncertain art because unknown events intervene. What has made this prediction fail?

Vista was a dog ( I don’t like dogs)
Vista and “7″ will not run on most hardware
Vista and “7″ still welcom malware
The netbook showed many millions of people GNU/Linux in action
Snart-thingies showed millions there are other ways of doing things
Dell and other started selling GNU/Linux to consumers
A recession put a damper on spending

The net result is that spending for spending’s sake does not work in IT. Eventually everyone questions the futility of sending good money down the same hole and they are open to other things.

- Robert Pogson

Predictions That Will Fail in 2011

Published by Robert Pogson December 13th, 2010 in technology. 4 Comments

Channel insider is predicting the downfall of XP in the enterprise in 2011. They must not realize that “7″ is only replacing a small part of the XP universe. The increase in “7″ share is less than the total decrease in Vista and “7″. Many will cling to XP in business until the dust-bunnies clog the coolers. At the present rate of decline, XP will be around many years. Do you know any business that wants to replace all of its PCs and most of its printers in 2011? … I thought not. Continue reading ‘Predictions That Will Fail in 2011′

- Robert Pogson

GNU/Linux Roll-outs in Schools

Published by Robert Pogson December 13th, 2010 in Linux in Education. 0 Comments

There is news of a “huge” roll-out in Brazil, 1.5 million notebooks running Mandriva GNU/Linux. That sounds like a huge number but in a population of 200 million people it is a drop in the bucket, about one machine per classroom. My impoverished-IT-budget school has 5 or 6 times as many GNU/Linux PCs. If the government of Brazil really wanted to make a difference they could spend a bit more and using GNU/Linux terminal servers and thin clients they could provide many more computers for students. Continue reading ‘GNU/Linux Roll-outs in Schools’

- Robert Pogson