I came across a prediction from 2006 that Vista would have 40% share by 2008. Now, we are in 2010 and Vista +”7″ is still less than 40%. Granted, predicting is an uncertain art because unknown events intervene. What has made this prediction fail?
- Vista was a dog ( I don’t like dogs)
- Vista and “7″ will not run on most hardware
- Vista and “7″ still welcom malware
- The netbook showed many millions of people GNU/Linux in action
- Snart-thingies showed millions there are other ways of doing things
- Dell and other started selling GNU/Linux to consumers
- A recession put a damper on spending
The net result is that spending for spending’s sake does not work in IT. Eventually everyone questions the futility of sending good money down the same hole and they are open to other things.