One of the frustrations of promoting GNU/Linux is that retail sellers of PCs tend to ignore or are ignorant of GNU/Linux yet about 10% of retail customers are very familiar with GNU/Linux. That makes no sense. It may maximize current cash-flow but will cause retailers to lose customers as GNU/Linux grows and start-ups or smaller retailers cater to the business. The result is a chicken-and-egg situation where many who would buy GNU/Linux on price and performance do not have much choice and because most users of PCs are not do-it-yourself types GNU/Linux does not grow as rapidly as it could.
Oracle has written a paper which suggests ten rules retailers should live by to thrive in a changing world. On the topic of serving niches, Oracle suggests everything is a niche and to pass by any niche without serving it is a weakness and an opportunity for competitors. Oracle also suggests incorporating the technology of computing into the business, even assuming customers will access stuff on their smart-thingies while walking around and conversing with like-minded customers when making choices. A new level of openness and responsiveness to customers is in order.
see New Rules of Retail
“Look for underserved markets to attract new customers.
Bringing like-minded customers together can lead to product discoveries and better word-of-mouth advertising.
The retailers that share the most accurate and comprehensive product information win favor with consumers.”
Wouldn’t that be a refreshing change?
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You missed the one “server niche markets with niche products”, Robert. Linux computer vendors have been trying that tactic for decades now. AFAIK every one of those efforts has eventually gone bankrupt or otherwise failed to grow. But you are free to try yourself, eh?
I don’t know about that. Convertibles are a niche but people buy them and pay extra for the privilege of getting less car. That’s the advantage of niches, you get happy customers who come back. Retailers who do not sell GNU/Linux do not know how many sales they could have made. Even if it is only 1% share that NetApplications describes that is worth one or two models on the shelf, not zero models.
Google started up as serving a niche. They did well. Now the niche is envied by those who did not serve the niche.
M$ started up as serving a niche. They sold very few copies until IBM gave them a monopoly on the IBM PC.
The guy leveling my lot now is serving a niche, folks too cheap to hire a landscaper and looking for the lowest price for the service.
The problem for retailers dealing with niches is spotting them and developing them into a good stream of income. It can work. Dell is making money on GNU/Linux and they are not even trying hard. Imagine what they could do if they set their minds to it.
I walked through a Walmart recently checking out their netbooks. Not one had GNU/Linux. They might have missed an “impulse” sale. Too bad for them. Imagine how many sales they could make to people walking by, not intending to buy but finding a netbook with GNU/Linux for $200. Imagine the teenager in the family telling all his friends. One sale could become hundreds if only Walmart made the offer.
One of my favourite retailers has an active forum and reviews of products. A lot of the chatter in the forums is about how such and such product works with GNU/Linux and yet he offers nothing with GNU/Linux. He is missing some business. Even if the builder-geeks would not buy units from him, associates may. Even a geek gets tired of installing sometimes. Even builder-geeks might buy a no-OS unit if they were sure it had a complete set of drivers in the kernel.
Lots of start-ups go bankrupt. Starting up is sitting on a fence. On one side is success and on the other side failure. Success depends on a lot of factors. The size of the niche served is only one. Lots of bankruptcies occur because the revenue does not come in before notes become due. The nature of the product may have little to do with it. I expect GNU/Linux appeals to start-ups because less capital is required to buy goods but selling the goods does not seem to be a problem. ASUS could not keep up with demand when they shipped GNU/Linux. In some places, people lined up to buy eeePCs. Any retailer could do that if they wanted to do it but they are lazy and not innovative.
“Retailers who do not sell GNU/Linux do not know how many sales they could have made.”
Unless the retailers who have tried to sell Linux computers tell them, Robert. Some years ago WalMart added Linux computers from a supplier named MicroCenter or somesuch name and they bombed. Of course that was on-line/mail order. Dell and HP have added Linux computers in their on-line channels and they have bombed as well.
I think that the problem with Linux in retail desktop/laptop/netbook channels is that the people who might otherwise buy them are basically cheapskates who are out to save every cent that they can. If all they think about is the purchase cost, then all of the other factors that create a customer base are missing and it is not possible to build a solid business.
There are many myths told by the FLOSSers to one another about how popular Linux would be if only they had a fair shake, but they are blind to the facts. ASUS didn’t get out of the Linux netbook business because of any malicious effort by Microsoft, they got out of the business because it bombed and the hordes of people said to be lined up to buy the Linux versions never existed. Those who might have purchased a unit never even made it through the initial production runs which are even today available at cut-rate prices from Asian distributors. You have cited some of them yourself.
The eeePC was selling out everywhere it was offered when it only had GNU/Linux. In the following article ASUS is quoted as saying they sold one every few seconds:
http://www.itwire.com/opinion-and-analysis/beerfiles/15610-asus-eeepc-sold-out-across-australia
eee PCs with GNU/Linux sold better than XP in the UK:
http://www.reghardware.com/2008/07/14/asus_linux_eee_901_famine/
Quit revising history.
It seems A-C has all the ‘pat-answers’; all of them condescending.
“Quit revising history”
Quit being so gullible, Robert. Your one cite seems to say that there were some 500 units sent to Australia and they were sold out within days although some comments are there in regard to there being stock at some stores. Your other cite, although from a biased source, only says that the shortage of of Linux versions is due to chip shortages and does not mention the quantity involved. The facts are that there is a surplus of unsold Linux units on the salvage market and the units are no longer in production.
Your theory is that ASUS and others abandoned this incredibly lucrative market due to some mysterious cause. The reality is that the early units sold due to price points substantially below expectations and the return rate was excessive when people found out where the money had been saved. Subsequent issues of netbooks with Windows were much more successful.
The case of microsoft strong arming the retailers is documented in the comes versus microsoft files on groklaw. please read it for the facts. microsoft did threaten retailers so they would stop selling linux. this wont happen forever. linux will be back bigger and stronger than before. there is an undercurrent of support for linux such that it cannot be stopped. it gets stronger every year. linux is at present 13% market share and rising every year.
Where does the 13% number come from?
A poll taken from visitors to a Linux blog website. It is run by the guy who used to be the Iraqi information minister.
I don’t know where 13% comes from but that’s a lot closer to the truth than the 1% numbers often quoted. IDC published numbers around 3% many years ago and GNU/Linux has been growing rapidly on the desktop ever since.
Pog:
First off, I hope your summer has been enjoyable, with not too many weeds to mow
Like yourself, I suspect that the actual users of Desktop Linux are much larger than 1%. IMHO it is not hard to understand why the number always looks smaller. After all, if you are not purchasing any software, and you are are either re-using older hardware or building/buying inexpensive systems from white box manufacturers, you dont contribute to a manufacturers bottom line and effectively “dont exist”
In the end, it is not what you believe to be the business opportunities for Linux that count, it is what the OEM’s believe they are.
The weeds are in check and we finally have the grading done well. Next year, a lawn for sure.
Fortunately there are OEMs not married to that other OS and they can nibble away at the market until the desktop is well occupied. ARM this winter will likely be on some desktop PCs and a lot of net/smart/notebooks. It’s the lowest cost solution and that matters a lot to a lot of people whether the top 5 OEMs care or not. The smaller OEMs will move into the market and force the big guys to respond with GNU/Linux on ARM and x86. Give it a few years. It will happen.
While I have every faith that ARM will be at the core of some third party Netbooks and iPad work alikes. I dont think there is a market for ARM based Desktop computers. Mind you, this is because I believe the vast majority of new computers will be appliance iPad like devices running the likes of android and allowing the vast majority of computer indifferent people to consume media services on the go.
At any rate, we shall see…
I still think people like to sit while using a computer and a full-size keyboard beats a mobile device any day. My students and teachers touch the keyboard, monitor and mouse and ignore the box so it could be any format with any CPU. ARM will have a role. Thin clients are making a move and ARM is just about ideal for them. Video still takes some CPU power but the latest ARM CPUs do a good job. The next generation of desktops likely will have a CPU in the keyboard or monitor with no box at all.
These are different markets with different product marketing criteria, Robert. Ages ago computers were in glass houses and attended to by an army of IT weenies who made you wait outside until they were ready to release your printout. That eventually gave way to midi-computers and minicomputers although they were, for a long time, still in the glass house. But people could use terminals from outside by themselves. That all gave way to desktop PCs and then laptops with wifi connections. The end of that line is now the netbook, which is about the smallest unit that is practical for any major “computer use”. They are too small for many who demand a full-size keyboard and a monitor that does not require one to squint so hard.
Smart phones and iPads and such are really a new product area that doesn’t replace anything in the PC line, I believe. Maybe some people would have bought a laptop to get what they use their phone for now, but they never really needed the laptop in the first place. Tablets are odd ducks, in my belief, that still need to find a good home. They are too big to replace a smart phone, plus they can’t make calls. The Kindle and such are something else entirely. I think the iPad and such need to be seen as output devices to show a lot of information to someone who might need to know about something to complex to see on a phone. They really don’t lend themselves to input of data.
The world is one big market in IT these days. From top to bottom in IT people are using all kinds of devices. In my little network at school I see iPods, netbooks, notebooks, PCs. Larger system see everything including the smart-thingies. ARM was not ejected from the PC market they just went a different way and now they are coming back. We have seen 512 chips in a server and lots of smartbooks do everything a notebook will do. To the user there is no difference except the price is lower, the weight is lower and they don’t have to fight as much malware. ARM is already in thin clients on desktops which fits well with the move to thin clients. An ARMed thin client is thinner than an x86 thin client. My users certainly do not care much what the OS is as long as it works and keeps working. That other OS did not.
The beauty of the ARM processor is that “7″ does not run on it and never will so ARMed devices will be here before M$ comes out with “8″. Since users have no expectation of that other OS being on their ARMed device they will accept GNU/Linux with open arms and OEMs and retailers will have to offer what the consumer wants sooner or later. M$ can hook people up with their cloud from random devices but they will not get them all. Freedom will reign at last and people will be able to choose whatever their geek-creds.
“The beauty of the ARM processor is that “7″ does not run on it and never will …”
Do you really believe that or are you just hoping like you usually do? If MS has to port Win7 or some other version to ARM in order to continue to make money, you can rest assured that they will do so. Remember, MS has as much development time with ARM as anyone and a lot more than most.
If it is some kind of PC equivalent product, say a netbook with ARM instead of Atom, people will surely buy the Windows version and eschew the Linux just as they have always done.
M$ wants a return on investment. They took many years both to create Vista/”7″ and to cater to Intel. The whole design of the OS is to promote an industry based on “partnerships”. What will Intel do if M$ starts promoting ARM? Intel could produce ARM, too, but their margin would drop because there is lots of competition. The world would find they don’t need Wintel. M$ would also lose margin because development costs would increase. ARMed devices will be cheaper and the price of that other OS will be conspicuous. Even if M$ cuts prices/bribes Wintel will be in serious danger of losing monopoly. Unlike GNU/Linux which has a tiny advertising budget, there are armies of OEMs, ISPs, and retailers pushing ARM. M$ did not succeed with smartphones. They won’t succeed with smartthingies in general. No monopoly. No success for M$. For them, success means monopoly.
“The whole design of the OS is to promote an industry based on “partnerships”. ”
Your biases are ruining your ability to reason, Robert. For one thing, Microsoft has had a “compact edition” version of Windows available for ARM processors and others for a long time now. Consider that they have an army of highly skilled, college graduate, experienced developers who are well paid and highly motivated. They can do the job and will do the job if necessary.
The rag-tag bunch of FLOSSers who fiddle around with computers as a hobby have never been a match for anyone with focus and training. People expect Windows on a personal computer and if you make a personal computer you had better have Windows on it if you want it to sell. No one has ever sold a Linux computer line for any length of time. Never. ARM is not a magic bullet and Intel can match them function for function and dollar for dollar if they wish to do so and they would likely wish to do so if the alternative was to lose most of their business.
You are just having pipe dreams. What’s in your pipe?
That rag-tag bunch have been doing pretty well.
Only if you don’t look at the scoreboard.