Archive for April, 2009

Silly Pricing

We have known for a long time that the price hidden in consumer PCs was silly. Now we know it is silly for servers, too, even though the price may not be hidden…

“They were driving prices down and it eventually broke the pricing model,” Hilf said. “We sell the software for $1,000 and these guys were selling the hardware for $300. It was silly.”

Right from the horse’s mouth. A licence for 2003 etc is around $1000 and they have the nerve to charge per-seat on top of that. Silly. Hilf was talking about cripple-ware, too. Really silly.

For anyone who does not know, you can install Debian GNU/Linux on your server for just the cost of downloading/labour. No licence fee. Not silly. Smart. That includes all the bells and whistles:

  • GNU/Linux, the OS
  • OpenSSH, a great tool for managing systems and clusters remotely
  • Apache web server, a standard on the web
  • MySQL database or PostgreSQL databases
  • PHP server scripting for rapid development or tweaking of existing scripts
  • SWISH-e, a good search engine
  • see more at Debian

It just takes a few minutes to install all this goodness. You can obtain the software and install it in much less time than you can purchase a copy of that other OS.  Then you can make it your own by customizing your site/services.

- Robert Pogson

The Other Half of Wintel

I remember that day when I first read an article about the 4004 processor from Intel. I had worked with computers made from discrete transistors, small modules, SSI (Small Scale Integrated circuits) chips but here was a microprocessor on a chip (almost). It was the beginning of a new era of productivity bringing the desktop PC into the realm of possibility for the ordinary person.

Those were the days when Intel competed on price and performance no one else could match. Along came monopoly. M$ got monopoly on the desktop PC OS and Intel wanted monopoly on hardware. IBM insisted they have second sources. Intel has been messing with the competition ever since. AMD is/was/may be close to being real competition for them but Intel has done everything they could to thwart AMD. AMD survives today only because they did things differently than Intel,

  • cheap 64 bit processors which not only souped-up processors but gave us motherboards that could kill…
  • memory controllers on-chip for faster access/larger bottleneck/lower clock speed/less power consumption/better scalability which Intel is now beginning to copy…
  • lower prices (except when AMD was alone in the lead with 64 bitness)

Now the EU is on Intel’s case and the market in the EU is too large for Intel to ignore, so we have the possibility of a return to competition in processors.

2009 could be a very good year:

  • 2009 – the Year of GNU/Linux on the desktop
  • 2009 – the Year Competition Returned to Wintel
  • 2009 – the Year I Retire (and fight Evil full-time)

Sadly, AMD, the largest competitor for Intel, is neglecting the netbook and does not sell the optimal processor for my terminal servers running GNU/Linux. Those XEONs are sweet with their huge caches… Terminal servers run a huge number of processes and large caches help keep some in the cache for incredible performance. Users of that other OS have no idea what they are missing when they are not using a thin client running GNU/Linux. Shared memory permits a server to run many more processes than that other OS.

Let us look forward to the day when Intel compete again solely on price and performance so that I can again buy their products and AMD can improve their performance on terminal servers. It’s all good.

UPDATE There is another sign of competition coming to Wintel: VIA is selling in servers from Dell. Small can be beautiful.

- Robert Pogson

Innovation

There is news that Office 2007 has been updated with new

  • support for PDF
  • support for ODF

OOPS! We had PDF about 2003 in OpenOffice.org version 1.1. We had ODF in 2005. That seems like lack of innovation for that other OS. You would think that one of the richest corprations in the software business could keep up but they only have about 10000 coders. The rest are salespeople. Salespeople don’t innovate. FLOSS has 300000 coders and counting. They innovate.

Go with the innovators. Go with FLOSS.

- Robert Pogson

Flu

I am not expert in epidemiology but I know a thing or two about particles and data, so I will comment on the interesting influenza outbreak apparently focussed on Mexico.

Articles on the web give this information:

  • the thing has been around Mexico for a few weeks
  • 100+ people have died with related symptoms but only a few have lab tests proving the infection
  • the infection shows DNA signs of connections with bird/swine/human influenza
  • rate of death is from 2 to 14% depending on how many of the suspected cases are real infections with this previously unknown virus
  • officials are not recommending travel bans because the virus has already spread around the world
  • officials are recommending extra care in hygiene – tissues, handwashing and masks in some cases
  • TamiFlu supposedly helps
  • previous immunization against influenza may not help

So, what to make of this?

  • travel to Mexico seems unwise
  • while the apparent lethality of the virus is a concern, the slow rate of dispersal is encouraging – the hybrid nature of it must somehow be alerting our immune systems properly or the virus is more fragile than most, remaining functional a shorter time outside the body
  • the risk of infection seems to be more serious where health-care is of a lower standard, most places on Earth
  • travel bans would be in place if other countries were getting the death toll of Mexico
  • the virus will be a plague on most of the world where people are crowded and have marginal or worse health-care systems

I hope I am wrong but continuing air travel will allow this thing to get out of control in more places. It could take months to develop a vaccine. Fortunately we are leaving the flu season in the northern hemisphere but the south is just entering that phase. South America and Africa have mixed health-care but Australia is pretty good. We shall see. Let us hope the virus does not mutate sufficiently to hit the bulk of the world’s population next year with no effective vaccine. Expect TamiFlu to max out capacity.

Some useful links:

UPDATE:

New information shows a rapid increase in confirmed cases in the USA.

U.S. Human Cases of Swine Flu Infection
(As of April 28, 2009 11:00 AM ET)
State # of laboratory
confirmed cases
California 10 cases
Kansas 2 cases
New York City 45 cases
Ohio 1 case
Texas 6 cases
TOTAL COUNT 64 cases

We seem to be very close to escalating the threat level for a pandemic. We are at Level 4 but conditions seem right for Level 5 or 6:

Phase 5 is characterized by human-to-human spread of the virus into at least two countries in one WHO region. While most countries will not be affected at this stage, the declaration of Phase 5 is a strong signal that a pandemic is imminent and that the time to finalize the organization, communication, and implementation of the planned mitigation measures is short.

Phase 6, the pandemic phase, is characterized by community level outbreaks in at least one other country in a different WHO region in addition to the criteria defined in Phase 5. Designation of this phase will indicate that a global pandemic is under way.

    - Robert Pogson

    There is a Disturbance in the Force Today

    All over the web the trolls have regrouped and are attacking any who criticize M$ or praise FLOSS. Over at ComputerWorld, SJVN is heavily under attack for stating his opinions which are well-founded. At DesktopLinux.com, the trolls are becoming mellow in their old age finding ad hominem attacks are counter-productive. Here is an example:

    “Linux can only succeed on the desktop if it can be offered by one of the major suppliers. So far, none of them want to take the time and expense needed to even try on any massive scale. The lesson of the netbook has been learned by all, too. Linux was an early offering, but XP now totally dominates sales. People did not flock to Linux at the price differential supported by the manufacturers.

    There is no reason for the OEMs to try to offer a cheaper unit unless they can profit from the effort. If all they manage to do is sell the same number of computers to the same people but at a lower price, they have failed badly and will never recoup their costs of adding Linux.”


    This sounds so sweet and reasonable, doesn’t it? This is just begging the question, politely. Suppose none of the major suppliers puts GNU/Linux on the desktop but all of the smaller players do. That’s about 42%, according to IDC. OEMs of all sizes will have to push GNU/Linux on netbooks if the small guys do. Small operations all over China are cranking out netbooks based on ATOM, VIA and ARM. It is all good.

    Only a few weeks ago, the trolls were overrun by positive comments about GNU/Linux on the web. They have regrouped and are trying different tactics but they are still trolls. The willingness of manufacturers to push GNU/Linux puts the lie to the comment quoted above. The cost of not adding GNU/Linux to the mix is loss of business as the unit price/ASP drops. They have to increase volume to compensate. The OEMs who add needless features to keep their prices up will be in the same leaky boat as M$ by next year.

    On Amazon.com, I found about 200 “netbooks” and 33 “netbooks linux”. Amazon even suggested I search for “netbooks linux” as a related search. They must be getting a few hits. Prices ranged from $200 to $735 for Linux and $285-$1300 for that other OS. No room to hide at the low end and the low end is creeping up. By next year, GNU/Linux will be competing with that other OS on every type of PC in every price range. The trolls will not accept that GNU/Linux sells until the roller passes over. They are either well paid or in denial.

    - Robert Pogson

    7 by the numbers.

    Many have been pushing the idea that XP on netbooks will be replaced by 7. The numbers say different. SJVN has tested 7 out on a netbook and a more p0werful PC and the performance compared to XP and, presumably, GNU/Linux is dismal.

    “I tested both machines using Microsoft’s Windows Experience Index, the performance benchmark that’s included in both Vista and Windows 7. On a scale running from 1.0 to 7.9, the Dell Mini 9 came in at a 2.0, while the EliteBook showed a 3.1 result. (In contrast, a high-end system with DX10 graphics is expected to score somewhere around 6.0 or higher.)

    In theory, Windows 7 is better than XP at battery life, but I discovered that this wasn’t the case when it came to displaying videos. To test this, I disabled the Wi-Fi and removed all USB devices. I then ran videos I placed on the SSD. Windows 7 was knocked out after not quite two hours of use. XP made it to just over two and a half hours, while Ubuntu was still playing video at the three-hour mark.

    So, when you get to numbers and not hype. 7 is not better than GNU/Linux by a long shot. Imagine a netbook running anti-virus stuff as well.  Don’t buy vapourware. Buy GNU/Linux. It is here now.

    - Robert Pogson

    Everything You Need to Know About M$

    ECIS, the European Committee for Interoperable Systems, has gained intervenor status in the EU v M$, a case about tying the IE browser to that other OS. ECIS published a report that documents well the long history of anti-competitive acts and harm to consumers done by M$. You must read it.

    Here are some excerpts:

    “This anti-trust thing will blow over. We haven’t changed our business practices at all.”
    — Bill Gates, Microsoft founder and then-CEO (1995)3

    “If we own the key “franchises” built on top of the operating system, we dramatically widen the “moat” that protects the operating system business…. We hope to make a lot of money off these franchises, but even more important is that they should protect our Windows royalty per PC…. And success in those businesses will help increase the opportunity for future pricing discretion.8

    ” Most operating systems are purchased by original equipment manufacturers (“OEMs”), such as Dell and HP. OEMs preinstall operating systems on the computers they manufacture before selling the computers to consumers. In the late 1980s, Microsoft began requiring OEMs to pay Microsoft a “per processor license fee” for each computer they shipped, regardless of whether they installed Windows on the computer.28 This arrangement gave OEMs a powerful incentive not to pay for and install competing operating systems. In 1994, the U.S. Department of Justice (“DOJ”) filed an antitrust suit against Microsoft challenging this conduct, resulting in a consent decree under which Microsoft agreed to stop using per processor license fees.29 But the anticompetitive practice had already been quite effective in reducing competitors’ share, particularly when combined with Microsoft’s other actions directed against DR-DOS.30 The DOJ consent decree also sought to impose some forward-looking relief by prohibiting Microsoft from bundling other products into its now-dominant Windows operating system. The decree included a proviso that permitted Microsoft to build “integrated” products, however, and Microsoft later took the position that, under the
    decree, it could bundle “‘a ham sandwich’ in the box with a PC preinstalled with Windows 95”and “require OEMs to take the whole package.”31

    ” Also in the mid-1990s, Microsoft took a series of steps to punish IBM for promoting a competing operating system and personal productivity application suite. At the time, in addition to developing software in competition with Microsoft, IBM was also a major OEM, selling personal computers. As such, IBM was a major customer of Microsoft’s. Microsoft retaliated against IBM for developing competing software products by charging IBM discriminatorily high license prices for Windows, delaying licensing negotiations with IBM for Windows 95, and withholding technical support.33 Microsoft informed IBM executives that it would only stop treating IBM less favorably than other OEMs when IBM ceased competing with Microsoft’s software offerings.34 This resulted in $180 million in lost revenue for IBM,35 and other damages IBM eventually brought suit against Microsoft and Microsoft settled the claim for $775 million.36

    This goes on for 33 pages and leaves no doubt that M$ is not a reliable provider of IT in an open market. There are details of which I was not aware but this document puts everything in one place. I was not involved with servers in the 1990s so I was interested to read how M$ obtained dominance in servers on the LAN. Embrace, extend, extinguish all the way. They kept changing things so that no one could interoperate with them. I saw that in my recent struggle to get a terminal server running GNU/Linux to authenticate with 2003. What a waste of time and barrier to migration. How much easier it would have been to start up LDAP and use only GNU/Linux but how many organizations of any size want to expose their accumulated data to a risky/uncertain changeover?

    M$ is a monster. It is horribly real. We must avoid dealing with it as customers. Let is starve. How sad that justice is so delayed in these matters.

    - Robert Pogson

    Android/Arm

    It’s happening! Android/Arm netbooks are coming on the market. $100 prices anyone? This is really the low end of price. How about performance? What can a 533 MHz ARM processor do? I have seen 100 MHz thin clients do very well. I expect this is about that level of performance.

    see this blog by Seth Weintraub on some recent releases.

    Now, Wintel has competition on hardware and software. It is all good. ARM has a reputation of being more efficient than x86. We shall see. It appears prices can be lowered with ARM. Intel can afford to cut its prices just as M$ can. 2009 is the year of GNU/Linux. There is just too much good news for any other interpretation.

    - Robert Pogson

    The Business Plan

    Business Week has published what seems to be a reasonable analysis of M$’s business plan.

    • sell XP to OEMs for $15 to hold back GNU/Linux – this didn’t work
    • advertise to steer people from Macs – nope, people want quality
    • push multi-grade 7′s onto everything – no chance, there are not enough suckers to pay for a crippled version and upgrade for a fee. That reveals the price they have been hiding all these years.

    The preceding annotations are mine, not Business Week’s.

    This looks like M$ is playing defense. They are really going to have to pump up the budget for advertising to pull this off. It will not work, though, because everyone has seen Macs and GNU/Linux and they know M$’s stuff is not worth a premium in price.

    $15 is no bargain for XP if you have to shell out bucks for anti-virus, periodically re-install due to corruption and fragmentation, and the thing gets slower with use. Compare it with a cell phone. As long as you do not bend, fold, staple or mutilate it, about all you have to do to maintain it is change the battery every few years. Compared to that XP is very high maintenance. Selling the new licences is going to be tough. People hate to spend money for nothing which is what M$ demands.

    The market is bigger and wiser than M$ wishes it to be. The recession is provoking thought in IT. Some may get fired for buying M$. Some may choose to spend money wisely. It’s all good.

    We should know in a couple of years whether the plan succeeds. I expect it will succeed in some measure but the high profit margin is over and shareholders will probably seek some revenge as will customers who wake up and realize how much time and money they have wasted on that other OS.

    - Robert Pogson

    SUN Set or Super Nova?

    The imminent acquisition of SUN Microsystems by Oracle is very interesting.

    • Is Oracle going to push Oracle on SUN hardware?
    • What will they do with MySQL, OpenOffice.org, and JAVA?
    • Is there any more money Oracle can squeeze out of IT?

    I do not and have never used Oracle and I likely never will. It is a huge enterprise database, with a licence fee so steep, you have to have a working business reeling in money to pay for it. How that culture matches with SUN where so much stuff was shared freely is beyond me. Will Oracle change? Will SUN change? Will they both change? We live in interesting times.

    Early statements by Larry Ellison (promoter of thin clients in the 1990s – ahead of his time) indicate Oracle expects a good return on investment immediately by offering a nice stack of goods and services. “Complete” was the word. That sounds like some or all of SUN will be plugged in. Oracle’s ability to sell stuff could make it work. Will it work in these times of consolidation and falling prices? We shall see.

    Since Oracle’s main product is a high-priced database, I am particularly concerned that Oracle may see value in trying to kill MySQL, my favourite database. Of course, I could learn to love PostgreSQL, but that would be painful in my old age.

    I do not see much of an angle for OpenOffice.org/StarOffice unless Oracle expands its GNU/Linux business/service. This could be diversification and building a complete stack for Oracle. I thought IBM would be a better fit. A wise woman once told me, “You judge a tree by its fruit.” Let us hope this yields good fruit.

    - Robert Pogson

    Nowhere to Hide

    NY Times has an excellent article about the change to mobile IT, but it also gives some historical perspective:

    In 2004, only 2 percent of notebook computers sold in the United States cost less than $800. In 2008, some 35 percent did, according to data collected by the NPD Group, another research firm.

    Prices for desktops, which averaged about half the price of notebooks five years ago, had less room to fall, but indeed they have. At Fry’s, an eMachines system, made by a unit of Acer and having 3 gigabytes of memory and a 320-gigabyte hard drive, sells for $379.99. It isn’t even the least expensive one on the shelf. Hewlett-Packard, under its Compaq brand, offers a slower model with less memory for only $269.99.

    The move to less expensive machines highlights that we do not need a powerhouse on our desks to do the job. Thin clients fit in well with this. If you are seeking the lowest cost computing, there is nothing lower in cost than a thin client. Retail prices of monitors/keyboard/mouse are about $160 here and a thin client can be had for about $80 so $240 per seat plus about $25 worth of server comes to $265 is at hand. There is no place to hide hundreds of dollars worth of proprietary software any longer.

    - Robert Pogson

    Chill in Russia

    IDC reports that there has been a huge drop in shipments of PCs from Q1 2008 to Q1 2009. 40% is huge. Russia has been hot for GNU/Linux. The credit crunch causing the drop may push more towards GNU/Linux but fewer PCs means less opportunity for GNU/Linux unless it goes onto older machines or more of the newer machines run it. We live in interesting times.

    see

    IDC confirms Russian PC market slump

    - Robert Pogson



    Archives by Month

    My Mission

    My observations and opinions about IT are based on 40 years of use in science and technology and lately, in education. I like IT that is fast, cost-effective and reliable. I do not care whether my solution is the same as yours. I like to think for myself.

    My first use of GNU/Linux in 2001 was so remarkably better than what I had been using, I feel it is important work to share GNU/Linux with the world. I have been blessed by working in schools where students and school systems have benefited by good, modular software easily installed in most systems.

    I have shown GNU/Linux to thousands of students and hundreds of teachers over the years and will continue in some way doing that until I die in spite of the opposition.

    Posts

    April 2009
    S M T W T F S
    « Mar   May »
     1234
    567891011
    12131415161718
    19202122232425
    2627282930  

      Writing

      2488 articles
      18599 comments

        Comments

        platforms
        linux 10349
        windows 8015
        macos 107
        wp 2
        sun 0

        browsers
        firefox 14332 
        safari 7212 
        chrome 7166 
        ie 2724 
        iceweasel 2035 
        opera 1232 
        konqueror 198 
        netnewswire 7 
        flock 0 
        lynx 0 
        bonecho 0 
        epiphany 0