Robert Pogson

On August 7, 2007, I wrote here "The recent news that several major players in the desktop/laptop are going to sell Linux pre-installed is a perfect storm of activity that will finally break the monopoly."

I was right and now the world agrees:

• "Windows is a lost cause. The desktop client needs to diet and exercise, but its behavior isn't likely to change. There is no 12-step program for saving Windows from itself. Vista is fat and lazy. It's a resource pig living among healthy, active people who eat less and consume healthier diets. Cardiovascular disease and diabetes are inevitable. There's a reason industry vernacular refers to the "fat client." – Joe Wilcox at eWeek.
• "Windows Is Collapsing: How What Comes Next Will Improve" – Gartner
• blogs – blogosphere

Everyone who can make small laptops is making small laptops running GNU/Linux. That other OS will not fit on the architecture or the price. M$ can pay people to install XP but it is unlikely to be right for anyone. The XP licensing will not be extended again except for this niche but machines will have to be beefed up to run XP, raising the price.

Vista has flopped in a big way and cannot be replaced for a year or more because of the bloat and backwards compatibility/complexity. Everyone knows complexity kills. Now it is killing that other OS like a cancer. Complexity delayed Vista’s release and it will delay the release of the next version and so on. Meanwhile GNU/Linux keeps making gains.

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